Posted on 05/17/2011 6:21:56 AM PDT by Hojczyk
Now that two of the top three candidates for the Republican nomination have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left standing: Mitt Romney.
The polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out was — in my survey — Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6, Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2.
Now, Romney will inherit a large proportion of the votes left on the table by Huckabee’s and Trump’s withdrawal. My polling suggests that, based on the expressed second choices of the Huckabee and Trump voters, Romney will get 30% of Huckabee’s voters and 40% of Trump’s. These additions should lift him over 30% of the vote and give him a 2:1 lead over the nearest contender (Gingrich).
Romney was having a terrible week. His speech on health care was terrible. With Massachusetts up in arms over Romney-care and Republicans dead set against the individual and employer mandate, his failure to repudiate his program would have cost him dearly. But now he is sitting on top of the world.
Republicans are a legitimist group. Having run before and paid his dues since, Romney is broadly attractive. He is seen as most likely to handle the economy successfully and most likely to defeat Obama. He new has the decided edge.
Gingrich, Bachmann, Daniels, and Pawlenty are the obvious other beneficiaries of the shifting cast of characters.
For Newt, the key is the debates that begin on June 7. (Tune into on to dickmorris.com for my play-by-play commentary — in writing — on the debate as it unfolds and for my video commentary on it as soon as it is over). If Newt can establish that his intellectual and rhetorical prowess can overcome his personal negatives, he could be on his way to a strong run at the nomination. But perhaps they won’t be enough. We’ll see.
For Bachmann, the key is to announce right away, first to keep Palin out of the race (Huckabee’s withdrawal will encourage her to run) and to lay claim to the evangelicals and Tea Party folks who would have backed Mike. Recent polling shows that the evangelicals and the Tea Party supporters are substantially the same people. They would be the base of a Bachmann candidacy and Michele needs to go out and claim them.
For Daniels, the withdrawal of Trump opens the way for him to become the main establishment business community rival to Romney. And Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the door for conservatives to support him as well. He needs also to announce soon to get into the fray.
For Pawlenty, the withdrawals may open the way into the race. With candidates as formidable as Trump and Huckabee sitting on their vote shares, there was little the former Minnesota Governor could do to get a word in edgewise. Now the way is open for him to get into the fray.
But the big, big winner is Romney. It is now a rebuttable presumption that Romney will likely be the nominee. And that’s huge.
Nope. I'm not an evangelical either, and I know lots of other Tea Partiers that are not.
Romney, Titanic. Palin, iceberg. Morris: Full speed ahead!
Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORMON.
You got that all wrong. It’s:
Rommy will not last, two reasons, ROMMYcare and being a MORON.
And just since the subject line is in caps:
WHAT IS IS ABOUT ROMNEY THAT HE HAS TO SHOUT TO GET ATTENTION.
The primary issue for the Tea Party is fiscal sanity and constitutionalism. While many Tea Partiers are evangelicals, I don’t think social conservatism was the primary reason for the development of the Tea Party.
Dick Morris should have figured that out when he spoke at the Virginia Tea Party Convention last fall.
Idiot.
..somebody is on crack if they think most evangelicals will vote for Romney—agree with or not—ain’t going to happen...
Dick Morris is dumber than a bag of hammers, but smart enough to parrot the RINO line for his masters at FNC.
“paid his dues”
This is the political phrase that gets me most incensed. Both sides use it (had a Democrat lawyer call me to get me to vote against a newbie district court judge because “she hasn’t paid her dues”), and all it means is that they’re not part of the current crop of back-scratchers.
GOOD!
Colonel, USAFR
Time for Herman Cain to step forward.
Mittens Romney == John McKeating == Bob Dull ==> Ubama II
I was barely able to hold my nose for a war hero, plus Palin, opposing Hussein 0bama.
I will never do that for Romney. Not even if he picked Palin for veep. Let the country endure or succumb to 4 more years of 0bamanism, I will not vote for Romney.
What am I missing here?
If it's Romney versus the Drilla from Wasilla, I'm going with the Drilla.
No, but Dick Morris is an idiot.
As long as a politician is not Muslim, I am fine with him/her. I believe most voters feel the same way.
The two things Romney has going against him are RomneyCare and his history of flip flops.
Trump wasn’t going to be one of the top three candidates—and Dick Morris knows better than that!
Subtle? FNC is primarily RINOs and neocons. I completely stopped watching several months ago. The closest thing to a conservative on FNC is Hannity and he is a babbling moron.
They are desperate to convince us to vote for one of the axis of weasels, aren’t they...Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Daniels.
At this rate I a, going to hav to vote for Ron Paul.
thanks alot....now i gotta clean the coffee off of my keyboard.... :)
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