Posted on 04/21/2011 10:54:32 PM PDT by neverdem
As of this writing, the Intrade futures markets give the Democrats a 62 percent chance of holding the White House in 2012, essentially unchanged from a peak of 63 percent a month ago. Washington conventional wisdom seems to agree. Politico's Roger Simon opined a few days ago that "I don't think Barack Obama will have a hard time defeating his Republican opponent in 2012, barring a financial meltdown or a major foreign crisis." David Brooks similarly asserted recently that "Obama is very likely to be re-elected."
This is the first of a two-part series to provide a more thorough examination of the presidential campaign that is about to unfold. It concludes that the results are far from foreordained. This does not mean that the president will necessarily lose, or that he is even favored to lose. Right now I believe his chances of success are roughly 50-50, with perhaps more upside on the losing end. But none of the arguments for why he should be considered a strong favorite withstand scrutiny.
Most of the pro-Obama analysis rests on six arguments. I will look at three today, and three in Part 2.
Argument 1: We don't usually turn out our presidents.
Pundits love historical factoids. Here is a superficially...
--snip--
These early polls have little predictive power for next November. But they do offer a snapshot of today, and they aren't indicative of a dominant president. As I've noted before, this approval rating obscures a much deeper disapproval on policy matters, suggesting that his support is quite soft. We see this again in the Pew poll cited above. The president's approval rating is 47 percent, but his approval rating on the economy is 39 percent, on military action in Libya is 41 percent, and on the budget deficit is 33 percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Doesn’t he have a liberal streak?
Plus, and I know this shouldn’t be a factor but it is, he is short and the short guy never wins.
At this point; I wish we could get West to run.
I agree with John Fund of the Wall Street Journal. I think it will be ABO in that November, Anybody But Obama. “ ======
The numbers who drug him over the line in ‘08 are shrinking daily. It wasn’t the blacks who elected Obama but the Independents and moderate Republicans who were ready for generational change. Well, they got it. How’s all that hope changey stuff workin’ for ya? :)
BTW, Hillpac won’t be voting Obama either. They will have a long memory. Especially in those states where it was close between Hil and Barry.
Would you be so kind to repeat how to fix a text filled with relative hyperlinks so that they are converted to absolute hyperlinks?
I should have saved it then. I’ll try to save it now.
Silly me- here I was thinking that George H. W. Bush was a Twentieth century President that got "turned out" after one term.
Yes, West is something! I hope I get the chance to vote for him one day.
Yes, but even pure idiots hate $4/gallon gasoline and being unemployed or employed at menial labor with no health insurance.
Silly me- here I was thinking that George H. W. Bush was a Twentieth century President that got "turned out" after one term.
George H. W. Bush was considered to be Reagan's third term. The GOP controlled the White House from Reagan's inaurguratiion until Clinton's in January 93.
You’re right, I was thinking that GHWB followed Carter, not Reagan. My bad.
“Barring a financial meltdown”
The problem with that is, most people will consider our current unemployment problem, with food and energy inflation, along with a double dip depressive housing market and $5 a gallon gas (who knows where it will be in 2012) a personal financial meltdown.
If Obama can fix that he’ll probably win. But I don’t think he can, at least, not doing what he’s doing now.
“this clown has no hope at all for re election”
Not a good attitude to have, especially given that if the Repubs don’t find a leader with “huevos” soon (other than the Donald) than the ‘Rat Media machine will steamroll over another Dole (or Romney)-like candidate.
Politics is all about charisma...first and foremost to the base. I see no current top 5 or even top 10 Repub candidate who really excites the base (and keeps the RINOS...and could get Reagan-democrats too), which means that the 62% figure is probably about right.
O will again get 97% of the black vote (12% of the population) and will likely get the Latino vote too (another 12% or so) which means that only 35% or 40% or so of the white vote is needed to win...and about the only O does very well in, is campaigning.
17 months away though fortunately, and a lot of things could change very quickly during that time....still this is no time to be complacent or over-confident—due to us knowing O’s an empty suit. Republicans have not been named (by Conservatives) “the stupid party” for nothing....but lets hope the leadership wises up.
Given his record, IF O was Caucasian, he’d surely be another Carter/1 termer (and would of never gotten there in the first place, really)...but racial politics makes it much more complex.
That's the problem. Not idiots, exactly, but holders of idiotic opinions due to lack of interest and reliance on legacy media.
"Tax the rich" still polls very well. I'm worried.
I agree about race. If Obama was not African American, he’d be Gary Hart or one of the many other Democrat “new ideas” losers.
Lazlo I think the Obama re-election is far from a given, the vast turn against them in the 2010 midterms has festered and grown and BO’s response has been a disaster. As I sample the responses to any BO related articles in all MSM publications the vast majority are highly and vocally anti-Obama sounding a lot like FR. IMO the ABO effect will be high and I still think that there may be a primary opponent, possibly Hillary.
LOL
Well they are right regarding one thing, the current Repub field is a joke, a bunch of lightweights and Osama will have little difficulty defeating any of them.
We have to get serious about a candidate or Osama is guaranteed four more years.
Wake up. He has no chance. Why the heck do you think they are talking about it?
Mitch Daniels HA get real! It is going to take a
dynamic charismatic candidate with clear conservative principles with a high likeability factor, a no nonsense warior!
Allen West comes to mind
I agree. Give us West.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.