Posted on 03/30/2011 9:48:53 PM PDT by blam
Bill Gross: Without A Gigantic Reform Of Entitlements, America Will Default
Joe Weisenthal
Mar. 30, 2011, 8:00 PM
PIMCO boss Bill Gross has been warning against Treasuries for awhile, and recently he abandoned them completely.
In his latest investment outlook, he warns that America will default, thanks to trillions in entitlement obligations:
...the only way out of the dilemma, absent very large entitlement cuts, is to default in one (or a combination) of four ways: 1) outright via contractual abrogation surely unthinkable, 2) surreptitiously via accelerating and unexpectedly higher inflation likely but not significant in its impact, 3) deceptively via a declining dollar currently taking place right in front of our noses, and 4) stealthily via policy rates and Treasury yields far below historical levels paying savers less on their money and hoping they wont complain.
You can download the full report here (.pdf)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
The USSR did not have other countries holding hundreds of billions of their debt, a default on which could collapse their own country’s currency/economy.
Again, I am not arguing with you just trying to get at the truth. You raise a good question.
What will our creditors do? What can they do. I think the USSR is the best model to look at. The USSR appears to be a piker compared to USSR regarding international debt. What happened to all their internal debt such as pension obligations?
NEWS
Soviet Foreign Debt Put at $81 Billion
November 12, 1991 | Associated Press
The Soviet Union's foreign debt has topped $81 billion, far higher than previously reported, the independent Interfax news agency said Monday. The figure was disclosed at a closed-door meeting of the Inter-Republic Economic Committee, formed to run the country after the failed August coup. Just last week, the Soviet foreign debt had been put at $65 billion to $68 billion. The Tass news agency quoted committee chief Ivan S.
Here are some thoughts on comparing our situation with the 1989 USSR situation. There are some good arguments here on why, but I am still finding little info on what happened. I firmly believe there are some clues here on what will happen to us, won't be exactly the same though.
I hate to say it but this tells me that the USA will dissolve just like USSR did. The external debt and internal debt CAN'T be paid. NO WAY! What happens next?...............
In 1991, former Soviet republics signed an agreement under which Russia was obliged to pay the external debt of the USSR, and in exchange receives the right to property of the Soviet Union abroad.
http://havanajournal.com/business/entry/cuban-debt-to-russia-follow-the-funny-money-trail/
http://www.thejewishweek.com/news/new_york/pressure_rising_russia_pay_pensions
They don’t want it handled...they are betting on a disaster it is the only way to finish the complete transformation of America.
BTW...you hit it on the head. The kids are screwed and this has happened on our watch.
In 1987 the Soviet Union had 56.8 million pensioners; of this number, 40.5 million were retired with full pensions on the basis of twenty years of service and age eligibility—sixty for men and fifty-five for women. Reduced pensions were paid to those who met the age eligibility requirement and had worked at least five years, three of them uninterrupted, just prior to retirement. Miners and those working under other arduous or hazardous conditions could retire five to ten years earlier. In 1987 Soviet authorities were reducing the retirement age for other groups as well.
Pensions, on the whole, were quite low. The average monthly pension in 1986 was 75.1 rubles, with considerable disparity between the average monthly pension of blue- and white-collar workers (averaging 81.2 rubles for the two categories of workers) and collective farm workers (48 rubles). In fact, the average pension was only slightly above the unofficial level of poverty—or “underprovisioning” (maloobespechennost’)—of 70 rubles per month per person. It was likely that millions of pensioners lived under or close to this poverty threshold. Indeed, pensioners made up the majority of the poor. According to figures published in an official Soviet newspaper, in 1985 a minimum of 13.7 million pensioners were receiving pensions far below 70 rubles per month. About 12 million old-age pensioners continued to work, many of them in extremely low-paying jobs, for example, as cloakroom attendants in restaurants and theaters or sweeping metro station interiors and street pavements. Retirees who lived with their children (a common situation, given the extreme housing shortage) obtained some financial relief and in return helped with housework, cooking, and care of small grandchildren. In 1988 about 1 million pensioners lived alone and were by far the worst off, living in almost total neglect and near destitution.
http://www.house.gov/list/press/ny08_nadler/SovietPensionsApprov061009.html
WASHINGTON, D.C. Today, the House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved Congressman Jerrold Nadlers (D-NY) amendment calling on the United States to work with the nations of the former Soviet Union (FSU) in order to facilitate payment of pensions to FSU émigrés now living in the U.S..........................
tanks!!!
Yea, he’s just a troll. I should have figured it out sooner and taken his bait.
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It’s strange. It seems that only a few saw the bond collapse coming from a mile away, and what such a bond collapse tells us about the foundations of the economy.
I think weve been over this before. Those programs are not entitlements. The major entitlements are SS, Medicare and Unemployment.
On the other hand, people did pay in for Social Security INSURANCE and medicare for their old age.
So of all the unconstitutional activities of our government, the only people who paid directly in for what they are supposed to get, are people who get their money back for SS and Medicare benefits which was collected to be there for them in their retirement.
I don’t disagree with you on that point. Many people to have a sense of entitlement that doesn’t makes sense.
My point is that when Bill Gross talks about a “A gigantic reform of Entitlements” he’s talking about SS and Medicare specifically.
“One simple way to increase SS revenue is to remove the cap on which people pay; Im not sure what the current cap is, but people that earn $1 million only pay in as much as someone earning $105K.”
Yeah, I’m sure people who will get means-tested out of the deal will go for that.
“Yeah, Im sure people who will get means-tested out of the deal will go for that.”
They won’t go for it, but that won’t matter anyway. They suck it up when they pay their income taxes, and they’ll suck it up here.
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