The article's not talking about the BLS's CPI, it's talking about the Commerce Dept's PCE, and let's skip any complaints about the BEA's adjustments and go for a list of exactly what adjustments we do want.
And why.
Posted on 03/28/2011 7:51:59 AM PDT by Free Vulcan
U.S. PCE inflation up 0.4%, most since July 2008; spending up 0.3%
Real disposable income declined in February as consumer prices jumped by the largest amount in 2 1/2 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Economists said the data show that higher prices for gasoline is starting to take some of the steam out of the economy.
The personal consumption expenditure index, which Federal Reserve officials say is a more accurate gauge of inflation than the better-known consumer price index, increased 0.4% on the month, the largest monthly gain since July 2008.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Esp. for oil, they say what goes, guarded from the public by a wall of evilrats.
I will have to trust you on that one, I was a wee toddler then. LOL. So this means we may have 10 more years of escalating inflation? Brilliant!
I wasn’t that old myself back then but I like to read up on it. :)
10 years of inflation? I think so. Just in general there hasn’t been much inflation and we have massive pressure like an expanding dollar, our overseas suppliers are wanting more money as they grow into first world nations, credit is cheap but won’t/can’t stay that way, etc. Everything I have seen so far says this depression has produced deflation but that just means the economy is coiled for inflation. The entire financial system is rigged to need inflation to pay for yesterday’s spending. We haven’t had that.
Im in NC too and you are correct....grocery prices have been going up for a long time now. Lately though they seem to really be shooting up. I try to “over buy” when I find good deals. Stocking up on canned goods, rice, noodles....anything I see on sale, I buy extra hoping to save a few bucks down the road. As soon as we get warmer weather, I will be putting in my garden too. Anything to save a buck these days!
There are a few non essentials I want to get, but I swear, with the gas prices jumping up, grocery bills getting higher by the week....and dont even get me started on the electric rates here....ugh..... I dont want to part with my money unless I absolutely have to!
Unfortunately, he doesn't actually do any measurements. That would take hard work and people would ask him to show his data.
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/special-comment
I seem to remember hearing something like this recently. LOL!
To repeat, how accurate the outcome CPI is, all depends upon how accurate the adjustment is.
Feel free to contact Williams at his web site with all your concerns, questions, and comments.
Uncle Miltie,
Toddsterpatriot has a thing about the information on John Williams and will play Alinksy like word and logic games to make Williams work look worthless.
The accuracy of Williams outcome CPI depends upon the accuracy of Williams’ adjustment.
Toddsterpatriot has never addressed nor denied the corruption of the CPI by using soft metrics such as hedonics or the substitution effect, both of which are wide open to manipulation by the latest power that be.
If he really wanted to show the rate under the old calculation (like he claims) he could actually do the work.
To repeat have you ever contacted him with your questions, concerns, comment?
I note you still evade the issue of hedonics and substitution effect.
Now I fully expect a brilliant response reiterating what I just posted, not a yes or no answer to my question. ROFL
No one can know the accuracy of Williams adjustment until Williams does the actual work and releases the data.
He was probably busy not doing any actual CPI calculations.
The article's not talking about the BLS's CPI, it's talking about the Commerce Dept's PCE, and let's skip any complaints about the BEA's adjustments and go for a list of exactly what adjustments we do want.
And why.
Great post. Thanks for all the info.
I’m a pretty smart guy, good econ degree from a good school, with lots of business and personal financial success.
Nonetheless, my college roommate is two or three times smarter, and pays even closer attention than I do. He went on to NorthWestern for his MBA. I believe he retired at 35 with >$20M, and plays the market quite successfully for his own account now. I’ll have him go take a look at Shadow Stats, and report back.
I contacted Williams and asked that he share with us his calculations that prove what he claims is true. I'd bet money he doesn't reply, but we'll see.
I also asked him how he comes to conclusions the entire global bond market is missing. It's hard to believe that all those thousands and thousands of people, who have access to more information than Williams will ever have, are missing the fact that we're living in a modern day Weimar Republic. I wonder why he thinks these very smart people are pissing their money (and their client's money) away on investments that lose 10% annually. I eagerly await for him to answer my questions and concerns.
I'll bet he'd respond to me if I wanted to purchase a newsletter that confirmed my fixed point of view on the subject, however...
Stadowstats uses proprietary calcs but it's easy enough to reverse engineer the numbers. I can share the spreadsheet if you want, but it boils down to nothing more than headline-CPI with a fudge factor --which is why the exact numbers are kept under wraps. Anyone doing serious work in the marketplace has to use transparent functions of actual purchase prices.
Shadowstats's target audience are the political enthusiasts with little knowledge of economics.
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