Posted on 03/23/2011 8:01:22 PM PDT by Hojczyk
It’s weird to think of him pulling votes from anyone, but … Palin? The candidate with the single most devoted base in the entire field?
Draw me a Venn diagram of their respective constituencies, please.
Ten percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican say they would most likely support Trump for the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination.
That would place him fifth on the list behind former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee at 19 percent, former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 White House hopeful Mitt Romney at 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin at 12 percent…
“Removing Trump’s name from the list and allocating his voters to their second choice gives Huckabee 21 percent and Romney 19 percent – essentially unchanged from January. In a Trump-less field, Gingrich gets 15 percent, up from 10 percent in January, and Paul goes from 7 percent to 11 percent. Palin is the big loser, dropping from 19 percent in a no-Trump round in January to just 13 percent now,” adds Holland.
That’s the fun part of the poll. The less fun part is that Democratic enthusiasm has jumped to 56 percent, trimming a 22-point Republican advantage to … just six. I’m trying hard not to attribute that to a backlash on the left against Wisconsin, but it’s the most compelling explanation I can think of.
As for the Trump/Palin overlap, maybe there’s a portion of disengaged Republican voters who tilt towards the candidate with the highest name recognition. Normally that’s Sarah, but That Guy From “The Apprentice” out-celebrities even her. Similarly, could be that some righties are looking to liven up the debates for fear of a Romney/Pawlenty/Gingrich/Daniels soporific nightmare. Palin and Trump would both achieve that. Or maybe some of Palin’s support right now is as a protest vote by people disaffected with the establishment GOP. I’m skeptical of that, though, since protest votes don’t normally go to candidates like her who can actually win.
If the Trump vote is coming from people who are simply looking to spoil a ballot as a kiss-off to the top contenders in the field, I would think he’d be pulling more from someone like Ron Paul (who actually finished two points behind Trump) than from her.
All theories welcome. Via JWF, here he is
The time has come to question the conventional wisdom which asks the question: “Is a candidate electable?”.
The truth is my dog could beat 0bama.
The question becomes: “Who has the guts to turn around this socialist Rat/Soros agenda?”
On that score Palin looks to be a top contender.
Once again AllahPundit has nothing more to do than to go over some hypothetical poll... if it ever involves Sarah and some negative! sheesh!
I cant figure Trump out, do you think he really will throw himself in this? If so, who knows what will happen. He has a pop culture following....
Brother, ‘hot air’ is right. They’re blowing a lot of it.
If Trump can win the nomination (not easy but doable) - he wins the Presidency.
Period.
He would win NY and probably CT. NJ may also be doable for him.
Without NY, I can’t imagine Obummer winning.
We are living in weird times, Trump?
I say this.
If The Donald has the balls to call the Kenyan bastard out on his non-existent birf certificate, then let him. It serves a useful purpose.
If no other repubic has the balls to do it, well then, he may get my vote.
One thing I am damn sick of is weak ass repubics.
In ‘08, I would have laughed at the concept.
Today, I spent about an hour chatting online with a conservative friend of mine, and we are both saying “yup...we could vote for Trump.”
If he’s serious (which is admittedly hard to tell, he is definitely capable of just a publicity stunt), he can win it all.
Will the “people” (given that lots of Democrats are probably going to crossover vote in an attempt to spoil Republican primaries) pick a candidate who truly has the smarts to undo the Obama mess?
Sarah Palin certainly could. I’m not sure Trump has the vision, even though he knows how to make billions in the private world. But again by the time a well heeled Trump campaign got to Election Day, every man, woman, and child in the country would have seen a Trump ad about a thousand times. And even he would beat the tar out of Obama.
Allahpundit hates Sarah Palin.
Trump didn’t hurt himself today by going on The View and saying he wants to see Obama’s birth certificate. I thought Whoopi’s head was going to start spinning around.
When will they poll Sirhan Sirhan, Charles Manson or Gadaffi against Governor Palin?
he did great on there. Did you see how at ease he was, even surrounded by these shrieking harpies? Anyone remember how bad they made McCain look?
Can we see the sample they took the poll from? Do polls mean anything anymore since they were off by as much as 20% last time?
Pray for America
One thing about Trump, he’s not hesitant to speak his mind as he did today on the View. He’s the only one who is talking about Obama as the Manchurian candidate (though I don’t think he’s used the term). Every thing else was brought up - no real birth certificate, no records and no one remembers him.
He’s got an ego that’s even bigger than Obama’s if possible but there is nothing phony about the man and he understands business and capitalism. He may be the only one with the know-how and style who can turn the country’s financial mess around.
There is not a chance in hell that I vote for Donald Trump.
He is not a conservative. Period.
I enjoy the fact that he questions Obama’s eligibility but he is a loser and is not a conservative.
Of course he hated Bush for the most part and he heavily donated to dems. Now of course he could become the dems dream by running and trying to undermine any true conservative from being on the ticket.
Pathetic.
Just shows what a pitiful situation we're in. Read Trump's bio--his specialty is bankruptcy. He goes bankrupt every few years. I figure he's the perfect guy for America right now. If anyone can handle the US going belly up, it's Trump.
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