Where Have All the Children Gone? Postmodern secular nations are committing suicide.

American Thinker ^ | 03/15/2011 | Jerome Koch

[SeekAndFind]

Where have all the children gone? It's a problem that Mark Steyn first addressed in his book America Alone. Other than a piece Jonathan Last recently wrote for Weekly Standard, few if any reporters, pundits, politicians, or scholars seemed to take any interest. This is rather astonishing in so far as everything from our national security, economy, and future well-being depends on our ability to procreate. As Mark Steyn quipped, "...a people that won't multiply can't go forth or go anywhere. Those who do will shape the age we live in."

If one is to glimpse at the TFR (Total Fertility Rates, measured in children per female. One can get them via the CIA Fact Book, Wiki, and various UN publications) he would see that from a TFR of 4.78 in 1970, the global fertility rate fell to 2.56 in 2010. If one is to glance at individual nations, he will notice that some of the lowest rates are in Europe and the former USSR. Poland has a TFR of 1.26, Romania's is 1.20, and the Ukraine's is under 1.3. In Italy, Greece, Spain, France, the UK, Germany and Portugal the TFRs are below 1.5. Scandinavia as a whole fares a little better with TFR's just under 1.9 children per female. But, before these north European nations put themselves on their backs, it should be noted that Scandinavia has very large and fertile Islamic minority population. It is the immigrant populations that are reproducing, and not the hosts.

One will also notice that various Asian nations also have very low TFRs. Japan's is near what demographers call the lowest of the low of 1.1, while China has a TFR of 1.5. But China and Japan are not alone for Thailand and Vietnam have TFRs below 2.0. If one goes to Central and South America the numbers are better, but the trends are not.  Mexico had a TFR in 1970 of just below 6.9; today it is just over 2.2 children per female. As a matter of fact, this negative trend continues across Central and into much of South America. And while current TFRs in South America average above replacement rates, if the current trends continue they will soon fall below them.  

Even in Muslim nations the TFRs are falling. From Tunisia to Egypt the birthrates have fallen from over 6 children per female in 1970 to below 2.5 in 2010. The TFR for Tunisia in 2010 was only 1.86 children per female. Yes, Yemen, Afghanistan, as well as Somalia enjoy some of the highest birthrates in the world (generally above 6.0), but the trend in many East Asian nations is downward. Indonesia, for instance, has a TFR of only 2.19 compared to 5.6 in 1970. It is only in Africa where TFRs generally well are above replacement levels.

The fertility trends in the United States mirror global trends.  Jonathan Last pointed out that our fertility rates have been falling ever since our Founding.  From an average of over 7 children per female in  the late 18^th Century to a nadir of less than 2.1 during the Great Depression, it was only the period 1945-1965 did our TFR's actually increase.  During the Baby Boom years the TFR reached a peak in 1960 (3.6 children per female).  But by 1980 our TFR sank to 1.8 . It currently stands at just over 2.0 (2.06) thanks in large part to immigration (both legal and illegal).  Last also makes the point that recent immigrants to the US adapt to their American hosts very quickly as far as fertility is concerned. There is little to fear that immigrant minorities as a group will reproduce themselves into a majority someday (a nativist fear that goes back over 100 years).  The just completed 2010 Census showed the slowest growth rates since the Great Depression.  Yes, the US's growth rate will continue to be positive, but the rate of positive change in our population has lost steam.  Only immigration allowed our population to increase.  It isn't inconceivable that our population could in fact contract this century if current trends are not reversed.

There are significant problems these plummeting birthrates create.  Economically the problems are obvious.  Governments in Europe and North America built elaborate and generous entitlement states since World War II.  But the inverted demographic pyramid of Europe and North America already are causing significant strains on the public purse.  The US alone has $100 trillion worth of unfunded public liabilities.  For Europe the problems are not just economic; growing Muslim populations in the UK, Belgium, Spain, Italy, and France foretell both social and political unrest, as Muslims will certainly continue to clash with its aging, gentrified host society.  As the number of native Europeans halves every 35 years, the proportion of Muslims will proportionally increase.  A decade ago, European experts laughed at the predictions of a future Eurabia.  They no longer laugh.

Another significant ramification of a rapidly aging society was brought to light with the earthquake/tsunami disaster that hit Japan on 11 March.  Lost in the drama of the nuclear power plant meltdowns was the horrific story of Harumi Wanatabe.  In an interview with reporters, Harumi described how her elderly parents were swept away by the tsunami as she desperately attempted to save them.  The tsunami hit her village only 30 minutes after the earthquake stopped.  Harumi's parents were too frail to move quickly.  One wonders how many of the victims of this tragedy will be the elderly.  Japan for decades has had some of the lowest fertility rates in the world.  The elderly now make up the fastest growing segment of its population.  Most of these elderly didn't have many children; and their children produced even fewer grandchildren.  Like Europe during the tragic heat wave of 2003 (in which the majority of the 35,000 victims were elderly), Japan is beginning to experience its demographic decline in a most painful way.

The United States is at a crossroads.  We are not yet in the position of Europe, China, and Japan.  But we are not that far behind.  As the statistics point out, we will not be able to rely on immigration much longer to grow our population.  Procreation of course is a very private matter, but it does have very public ramifications.  And history has shown that no amount of government largess encourages couples to procreate.  European nations offered very generous inducements for decades, but their fertility rates continue to drop.  Jonathon Last noted that fertility rates in many ways are determined by religious beliefs.  From this perspective the US, is more secular than is advertised. And unless things change quickly, we will suffer the same fate of Europe and Japan.  Postmodern secular nations are committing suicide.

[668 - Neighbor of the Beast]

So even if there were no God to punish us for the slaughter, reality would still punish us.

[RC2]

Aborting 50 million babies over the years doesn’t help matters much either. Maybe that is the plan.

[ClearCase_guy]

I've been detecting a very strong undercurrent in news coverage of Japan that the earth just has too many people.

Our energy needs are too high, our cities are too crowded, our food production is inadequate, we have too many elderly and vulnerable people to take care of, we occupy too much land, it's the wrong land, blah, blah, blah.

At its heart, the Left is obsessed with diminishing the human population. They are a cult of death.

[Clump]

You got that right.
I am doing my part with a third child on the way. That said I fear for what kind of a country they are growing up in.
Good thing God is still in control, even when things look like hell.

[SumProVita]

The contraceptive/abortive mentality leans heavily left....

It also shifts power to those who DO have children.

[MrB]

They hate people, because their ideological father hates people.

[screaminsunshine]

It takes a Village to commit Obamacide.

[raybbr]

The contraceptive/abortive mentality leans heavily left.... It also shifts power to those who DO have children.

You're kidding, right? Look at any major city in the U.S. to find hordes of low income children. Many municipalities are being over run with people standing with their hands out.

[YankeeReb]

I don’t know what the answer is. It seems to be that kids are a huge investment, in time, money , resources etc. and in return they are supposed to take care of you when you can no longer work and do for yourself. What’s happened is that governments have stepped in and taken over this function, so instinctively people are avoiding having kids because, what the heck, we don’t need them. People don’t think this on a conscious level but subconsciously. Again this is pure speculation on my part, but it’s the only explanation I can come up with.

[wbarmy]

This has been floated within the US Intelligence agencies for at least the last ten years. The demographic predictions for China are truly staggering.

The upside in the US is that there are some groups which still have a very high birth rate; fundamental Baptists and Catholics. The Democratic party actually commissioned a study which showed that there base was graying while the conservative base was actually getting younger.

[Republic of Texas]

In addition to the loss of aborted babies, higher taxes mean couples both have to work and can’t afford to have as many children. The left is killing us every time we turn around.

[HangnJudge]

instinctively people are avoiding having kids because,
what the heck, we don’t need them.

A galling statement
and at a subconscious level,
probably driving a lot of
self-destructive behavior

[FourPeas]

From an average of over 7 children per female in the late 18th Century to a nadir of less than 2.1 during the Great Depression, it was only the period 1945-1965 did our TFR's actually increase.

Whereas, I agree that our reproduction rate is a concern, it's worth noting the infant mortality rate has declined significantly since the late 18th century, as has the mortality rate of children. Comparing rates from the late 18th century to present day needs to take that into account to be meaningful.

[SumProVita]

No, I am NOT kidding. Look at the groups where more children can be found. These are the groups that will have future power.....for better ...or WORSE.

[wmileo]

"So even if there were no God to punish us for the slaughter, reality would still punish us."

People living in the West should have more children if we expect our superior set of values, based on Judao-Christianianity and reason to survive. Otherwise there are several inferior value systems which will replace them such as Islamofacism, Multiculturalism, Afrocentrism and Communism.

[napscoordinator]

We just had a thread on here that claimed that the kids born 2001-2011 have more children than the boomers. I can see that as I have seen people having way more than two kids now a days. My parents had 3 children and we have 9 children between us. Many of my high school class has 3 and 4 children. A few even have 5 children.

[wmileo]

"it's worth noting the infant mortality rate has declined significantly since the late 18th century, as has the mortality rate of children. Comparing rates from the late 18th century to present day needs to take that into account to be meaningful. "

Agreed but demographics don't lie. Ethnic Russian men have the lowest average life expectancy in a country where the Muslims population is increasing at an alarming rate. 50 years from now, what will the country known as Russia be like?

Ethnic Spaniards in Spain, where Leftist thinking(or lack there of) has taken hold and the birth rate is the lowest in Western Europe, will disappear in three generations.

[blueunicorn6]

The liberals think that our planet can only sustain 20 million people, and they should all be liberals. They think that euthenasia and starvation are commendable means of reducing the population. If you want to know why our fertility rates are falling, just watch tv. Young men don’t want the responsibility of children, they want to be children. Look at what happened to the Spears girls after they had children. Where are they? The young bimbettes want to be worshipped and Hollywood doesn’t worship a woman with a baby on her hip.

[lurk]

Islam is a culture which does not innovate, engineer or create anything technologically. They drive cars and fly planes only because they consume off of developed countries.

Were the world to fall to Islam, there would be massive loss of life due to war and starvation, followed by the various nations falling into primitive technology and primal culture as it was 1500 years ago following the fall of Rome.