Posted on 03/11/2011 4:53:07 AM PST by blam
Former Goldman Analyst Charles Nenner: A "Major War" Is Coming At The End Of 2012
Courtney Comstock
Mar. 11, 2011, 7:11 AM
Former Goldmanite and big-picture market forecaster had a grave prediction for FOX Business yesterday.
He started off the interview by saying that he's telling his big clients to get out of the market because the DOW will drop to 5000.
"We went log in 2009 in the first quarter [when] we had a price target of 1356 on the S&P 500 , and we're getting close," he said. "So I told my big clients, hedge funds, pension funds, and big firms to go almost totally out of the market."
"It doesn't mean that we go down immediately, it can take a couple of months. And if we would close in on 1356, which we're pretty close, we're 1% away."
And if we close before 1357, we're in trouble.
But don't get too scared, he says, "the market looks reasonably stable at the moment. So what I think we're at in the beginning of 2011, most of the gains have been taken."
Then he commented on Carl Icahn, answering the question, did he get out too soon? (The huge hedge fund manager recently announced that he's retiring.)
Nenner said that yes, he got out too soon.
"I was on another network and they said that he doesn't understand macroeconomics, and I say, give me a call." (Nenner is the founder of the Charles Nenner Research Center.)
And then he dropped a bomb.
The question was, What would trigger the DOW dropping to 500?
Nenner said, "Well, I don't want to depress you, but I should tell you that I also do war and peace cycles
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I’m tired of these gloom and doom scenarios. They don’t pan out. Looking back, I spent much of 2007-2009 fretting over the relentless news that the economy was going to crash, that a new Great Depression, far worse than the 1930 one was on its way. Or that other frightful events were going to transpire. Here’s what’s really going to happen ...
By the time 2012 rolls around, the economy will be picking up steam, and Obama will take credit for it and the media will saturate the airwaves with stories about how Obama saved us from the mismanagement of the previous President. We don’t have any good candidates to beat him. America is slowly fizzling out and is morphing into one giant inner city armpit.
By the time 2012 rolls around, the economy will be picking up steam, and Obama will take credit for it and the media will saturate the airwaves with stories about how Obama saved us from the mismanagement of the previous President.
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The middle east is on the edge ,, and we are denying any local oil production... we’re making progress on obamacare but the czars are enacting regulations tying us down.. Inflation is already here despite a dead economy.. tell me again how the economy improves by 2012? That’s only 9 months away..
The ME will cool down in a few weeks. Then it’ll be business back to normal. Even if there’s new management in some of these ME countries, they will still likely sell oil to us. I’m sure O would make tremendous concessions if he had to.
We thought Quadaffi would be out by Sunday of last week and he’s still there. Stuff isn’t going to change much.
The state of the economy is mostly about PERCEPTION. If the average Joe perceives it to be maybe ok but not great, he’s still going to spend. Same with businesses. As long as you can fool most people into thinking things aren’t that bad, they’ll continue to spend money.
I predicted war on 11/5/2008.
Obama is seen around the world as a weak, indecisive, and uneducated man. He may understand how to read a teleprompter and run for office, but the idiot does not know international politics, economics, technology, or much of anything else. Combine that with the racism of people such as Persians, Arabs, Chinese, and Russians who see black people as inferior.
Russia wants their empire back. China wants Taiwan and a lot of islands claimed by other countries. Iran wants to take over Southern Iraq and the Shiite areas around the Gulf. Turkey has turned on Israel. Muslim fundamentalists want to overthrow their governments and conquer the West.
All of these actors see a window of opportunity as long as Obama is in the White House. I foresee that they will not miss that opportunity.
“that a new Great Depression, far worse than the 1930 one was on its way”
It actually has been. Your view of the GD is skewed. People weren’t starving in the streets and mayhem rampant. We have just as many people unemployed, and, instead of soup lines, we have 45 million families on food stamps. There are only 85 million families. Inflation is now taking hold as predicted, following a deflationary period also easily predicted.
and these miscreants in office are making the same damn mistakes that were made back then...oh yeah to them they aren’t mistakes it is just part of their agenda of failure.
Incredible times for sure.
“The state of the economy is mostly about PERCEPTION. If the average Joe perceives it to be maybe ok but not great, he’s still going to spend. Same with businesses.”
If, and only if, they have the money to spend. People tend to say everyone has money and they just aren’t spending it. Well, private equity firms have a few trillion to throw around but the average Joe doesn’t.
“these miscreants in office are making the same damn mistakes that were made back then”
Absolutely. They want top “spend” our way out by creating credit and deflating the value of the currency and instilling socialism, which is simply just more spending and less production. We produced our way out of the depression via WWII only to fall back into a recession soon afterwards.
Yeah, it came from Italy, see it says "fra-jill-lay". ;-)
Well you hit on something that many just plain ignore whether they don’t want to believe it or are stuck in conundrum of normalcy bias...but this too will end in global war.
It is incredible that 100’s or thousands will have to lose their lives again just to repeat this insanity.
People also forget the markets didn’t return to normal until 1953...
I’m not a big believer in prediction - too many variables. The thing that scares me about the stock market is the baby boomers. They’ve been putting money into the stock market and now they’re retiring and taking money out. Are the 30 year olds going to put enough money in the stock market to make up the loss?
Everything that’s said by “news” (opinion, propaganda) persons on television is real and true (as seen on TV), but we all know that no imminent threat talked about on television can hurt us. ...little irony there. I haven’t watched television for nearly a decade, except to watch the occasional video through the Net. ...rarely. From my perspective, I see more of what’s really going on.
So the incoming economic tsunami won’t look so bad but maybe a little exciting. Then those who aren’t prepared and aren’t really expecting it will drown.
2008 panned out in the financial world. Total financial collapse is inevitable. Actual long-term liabilities of gov. are almost $100 trillion, and hyper-inflation/total collapse of dollar is inevitable. When, no one knows. Next 2 - 5 years likely.
Betcha Obama is reelected......unless God in His grace raises up a true leader. Even then, one man cannot recover things. Repubs are as guilty as Dems in bankrupting our nation....only a matter of degree......
When the usurper Imam Obama loses the election, our enemies will know that they only have a short window of time to act without fear of any retaliation.
All I know is I got completely out of the market a mont ago, I know a little early. However, I am sleeping pretty good. If it does go to 5K, Then I will rebuy all the really good stocks i hated to get rid of, but top is the top. Take your profit and run.
The Russians/Former Soviets and Chinese have been preparing for this war for a while now. Expect to see massive amounts of weapons and war goods to move in the next 6-12 months between Russia and China on one end, and Venezuela, Cuba and others on our end.
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