Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.Posted on 02/10/2011 11:01:24 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaway’s page:
Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.
Additionally, the monthly data plots are out, and there’s been little change from last month in the three major solar indexes plotted by the Space Weather Prediction Center:
h/t to WUWT reader harrywr2
Both the Dalton and Maunder periods had lower-than-average temperatures. The Maunder minimum coincided with the period termed the "Little Ice Age".
Looking at the graph, I think NASA will wind up reducing its estimate further as the year progresses, and the cycle max will be closer to 40 or so. What kind of temps we will see, we can't tell with certainty, but it seems wise to improve your home insulation.
Here's one theory I've heard about, and which makes sense to me:
Sunspots are an indicator of the strength of the solar magnetic field. Fewer sunspots indicate a weaker field.
The solar (and earthly) magnetic fields deflect cosmic ray particles. A weaker field means more cosmic ray particles hit the atmosphere.
Charged cosmic-ray ions promote cloud formation when they pass through humid air. Clouds reflect more sunlight.
LOL, we have a winner! You are SO right tho. Science can tell us some very very few things w/ microscopic certainty. Sadly, science has become like any other pagan religion and is more about prognosticating/divining/PCBabble/etc than actual investigative science or trying to understand our ‘universe’. Too bad b/c there’s lots to learn. Anyway, its refreshing to know someone else sees thru the Wizard of Oz facade.
You are so right. Really cold.
I was of the belief that sunspots = solar flares.
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They are not the same thing but they seem to often be related. Very often when there is a flair it is at or near the place a sunspot is or was. There are a great many number of flares and CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) that happen without any warning from any known disturbance.
As soon as projections are made about the number of sunspots the sun seems to have a sense of humor and prove us wrong.
Lately, ( the last decade) there have been a lot of Global Warming Deniers who have been telling us that we would be having a decrease in the number of sunspots. NASA disregarded them mostly because they didn’t follow the line of global warming. When the Deniers predictions started coming true then NASA started changing the way it counted sunspots so that any (what used to be called) a mole was now counted. One decent place to watch the sun is “http://spaceweather.com/"; It is somewhat objective.
The bottom line is that I believe we have already passed the point that would equal a Dalton and are well into a Maunder type minimum. What could that possibly mean? Frost in the NE USA in July and August. It could mean no wheat from Canada or Siberia. China and Mongolia will not be able to feed themselves. Relations with Russia and China will change dramatically because of their inability to feed themselves.
If I lived above the Ohio river in the east and above northern Utah in the west and I had a choice, I would be moving south.
I hate to sound like a tinfoiler but I am starting to believe it would be wise to get a few years worth of food and the means now to protect it. There will be a lot of bad years. There will always be something to eat if you have some money but some things will just not be available.
During the Maunder there were great upheavals in Europe over a lack of food. There are many millions more people now, food WILL be relatively scarce and expensive. In this country perhaps we will be able to afford expensive gas and food but much of the world won’t and it won’t be pretty and fiat money won’t get you very far.
I’m an old man. I’m not going anywhere but I do hope you will realize what shortening the growing season by 3 or 4 weeks will do to the world.
My Dad had old books about that, dating from the late 70’s when we were supposed to get a new Ice Age.
When NASA does that, it really means they want more money.
Yeah, there’s that aspect also - LOL.
“I’m an old man. I’m not going anywhere but I do hope you will realize what shortening the growing season by 3 or 4 weeks will do to the world.”
Just so you know, when I said sunspots = solar flares, I realized they aren’t the same thing, I just remember reading that sunspots often produce flares.
I am no spring chicken either. And while I’m north of the Ohio River, I’m not going anywhere. My roots here are deep.
I’ve often noted the cruel irony in the AGW crowd’s dire warnings, and the reality of what would happen in a global cooling. In the 1970s we were taught we were well on our way to a man made ice age due to particulate pollution reflecting sunlight. If we do actually enter a cooling, and from what I see here in Ohio, sure looks like it, I understand the catastrophy that it will be for the global food supply.
It is my sincere hope that if we do enter a cooling, and it becomes as chaotic as I would imagine, that the AGW pimps are held accountable for their scams. I’d like nothing better than to see Al Gore flogged in public.
Good points.
Finland lost 25% of its population due to starvation during the Mauder Minimum.
Grain grown in the Northern Hemisphere feeds most of the world.
North Africa/Middle East WILL starve.
Roughly 1645 to 1715.
Coincident with the Little Ice Age.
Its been so long since I’ve heard anything on 10 or 15
meters.
I got my Novice ticket in April of 1988. The cycle was just
hitting peak I think. National NCX-5 and a broken Radio
Shack 5/8 wave CB ground plane antenna was enough for 59
in most of Western Europe and Japan on 10 meters SSB.
Dang that was fun.
Mike N8KAH
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