Skip to comments.NASA’s Hathaway revises the sunspot prediction down again
Posted on 02/10/2011 11:01:24 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
From the Marshall Space Flight Center, Dr. Hathaways page:
Current prediction for the next sunspot cycle maximum gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 58 in July of 2013. We are currently two years into Cycle 24 and the predicted size continues to fall.
Additionally, the monthly data plots are out, and theres been little change from last month in the three major solar indexes plotted by the Space Weather Prediction Center:
h/t to WUWT reader harrywr2
And this means: hotter, cooler, or no change in earth’s temperature?
Looks like more pain for AlGore and his merry band of nitwits.
Cooler and probably wetter.
I am only guessing, but it appears the Supreme Power that Is may be turning the microwave down to 3 or 4 from the 4 or 5 setting that upset Al Gore so terribly.
Constant revisions by NASA means . . . they don’t have the first clue what will happen until it happens.
Wait! What? You mean the sun has an influence on the Earth’s weather? Get out! No way! Whoda thunk it? /< sarcasm>
Wait, so that giant ball of thermonuclear fusion in the sky affects our planet’s thermal balance? I thought my Chevy Silverado was responsible for that...
Well, we don't know. (And anybody who pretends to know, doesn't know they don't know.)
The solar cycle 24 predictions were ORIGINALLY (back in 2006-2008 timeframe) predicted to peak in 2011-2012 (Yes, that means right about now!) between 150 - 170. Now, that same solar cycle 24 “might” peak in 2013-2014 at less than 60.
What does it mean for temperatures?
We don't know. Last time the solar sunspot count and solar flux were this low for this long for three consecutive sunspot cycles - which might be cycles 24-25-26, we experienced the Maunder Minimum and extremely low temperatures for almost 70+ years.
They can’t predict change in Earth climate. How can they expect to predict changes on the Sun?
Because the sun has been more easily observable for far longer than the earth (telescopes vs. satellites). Lots longer baseline for solar observations than for the earth.
Yeah...try 400 years,
Mini ice age coming up.
There is at least one researcher who feels that we are going into a Dalton Minimum, which would be very cold. We won’t know for a while.
Thank you for the explanation. When was the Maunder Minimum?
Well, shucks! Here I have been rebuilding and upgrading my ham radio station, and now they’re telling me we’re going to get a crummy solar maximum!
It’s Bush’s fault!
Hansen-Gore Minimum ping!!
“Well, we don’t know. (And anybody who pretends to know, doesn’t know they don’t know.)”
Let me start by saying, I’m not challenging, I’m asking because I want to understand:
I was of the belief that sunspots = solar flares. In that case, sunspots would lead to large ejections of plasma energy into the solar system. It seems to me that would have a heating effect on the surrounding planets?
BTW, if you are a PE, I respect that a great deal. Before I had a career change, I saw that as a lofty goal that I wanted to try for one day.
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