“Well, we don’t know. (And anybody who pretends to know, doesn’t know they don’t know.)”
Let me start by saying, I’m not challenging, I’m asking because I want to understand:
I was of the belief that sunspots = solar flares. In that case, sunspots would lead to large ejections of plasma energy into the solar system. It seems to me that would have a heating effect on the surrounding planets?
BTW, if you are a PE, I respect that a great deal. Before I had a career change, I saw that as a lofty goal that I wanted to try for one day.
Here's one theory I've heard about, and which makes sense to me:
Sunspots are an indicator of the strength of the solar magnetic field. Fewer sunspots indicate a weaker field.
The solar (and earthly) magnetic fields deflect cosmic ray particles. A weaker field means more cosmic ray particles hit the atmosphere.
Charged cosmic-ray ions promote cloud formation when they pass through humid air. Clouds reflect more sunlight.
I was of the belief that sunspots = solar flares.
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They are not the same thing but they seem to often be related. Very often when there is a flair it is at or near the place a sunspot is or was. There are a great many number of flares and CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) that happen without any warning from any known disturbance.
As soon as projections are made about the number of sunspots the sun seems to have a sense of humor and prove us wrong.
Lately, ( the last decade) there have been a lot of Global Warming Deniers who have been telling us that we would be having a decrease in the number of sunspots. NASA disregarded them mostly because they didn’t follow the line of global warming. When the Deniers predictions started coming true then NASA started changing the way it counted sunspots so that any (what used to be called) a mole was now counted. One decent place to watch the sun is “http://spaceweather.com/"; It is somewhat objective.
The bottom line is that I believe we have already passed the point that would equal a Dalton and are well into a Maunder type minimum. What could that possibly mean? Frost in the NE USA in July and August. It could mean no wheat from Canada or Siberia. China and Mongolia will not be able to feed themselves. Relations with Russia and China will change dramatically because of their inability to feed themselves.
If I lived above the Ohio river in the east and above northern Utah in the west and I had a choice, I would be moving south.
I hate to sound like a tinfoiler but I am starting to believe it would be wise to get a few years worth of food and the means now to protect it. There will be a lot of bad years. There will always be something to eat if you have some money but some things will just not be available.
During the Maunder there were great upheavals in Europe over a lack of food. There are many millions more people now, food WILL be relatively scarce and expensive. In this country perhaps we will be able to afford expensive gas and food but much of the world won’t and it won’t be pretty and fiat money won’t get you very far.
I’m an old man. I’m not going anywhere but I do hope you will realize what shortening the growing season by 3 or 4 weeks will do to the world.