Posted on 11/30/2010 1:52:55 PM PST by Nachum
‘Tis the season to spend, spend, spend and it looks like consumers are doing just that. But, can this momentum spur a sustainable recovery and how long before people in this country are put back to work? (Snip) Nenner predicts a deflationary crisis that will cause the U.S. economy to “roll over” by mid-2011. He points to the Consumer Price Index, which is in “direct correlation” with Japan’s experience after their real estate bubble burst in 1989. “[The] economy is like a big boat that moves for 200 years and you cannot change it by putting some money in
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
lol I was wondering if anyone would actually read that since he is the same one warning about the deflationary hurricane (when I experience inflation at the store) .
What Bernanke's trying to do is keep housing prices artificially high so that the banks holding trillions of dollars in bad paper can recoup losses at our expense after we nailed them out. The banks are trying to foreclose and resell and they don't want to take the hit they'd take if housing prices were marked to market.
Housing prices are falling to what they should be in spite of the 600 billion pump and so he's probably going to pump more mid-year.
Meanwhile, food and all other consumable prices are soaring when they should be dropping. When you have a recession and high unemployment, you want prices to fall for basic necessities, not rise. This is the Fed screwing us over once again.
I pretty much agree with everything you said. Actually the idea of “wants” going down in price while “needs” go up is covered by Elizabeth Warren:
Enjoy! Or shoot yourself in the head. It’s actually a tough call.
And what would the inflation rate have been if housing had been included in the inflation rate in the naughties!
Kevin Phillips wrote a devastating article and book on how the government jiggles numbers in a wholesale manner to the point that one can argue about the veracity of virtually any figure put out by any government authority.
In SW Oregon it’s like the 1930s.
What town are you in? I see some of that, maybe my perceptions are just different, but it doesn’t seem that bad
yet. Yet....
The housing market is crashing. Median new home prices fell 13.9% nationally from September to October.
THAT’S A ONE MONTH DECLINE!!!!!!!! The Case Schiller is a three month average, two months late. It understates the massive decline in the housing market. Case-Schiller won’t report on this until January. The double dip is coming. Deflation is inevitable. The debt unwind cannot be avoided and the US Dollar will be king.
Just like they don't count unemployed people in unemployment figures.
The government doesn't count someone as unemployed when they are out of a job for more than 6 months. Funny, if they were serious they would stop counting them as unemployed when they actually found a job and began working again.
You cannot believe nor trust the government.
Yes they do. The Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor surveys something like 60,000 households every month. The possible answers are employed, unemployed and actively looking for a job or out of the labor force. To be "actively looking for a job" you have to have sent out at least one resume or asked a single business for work in the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is not linked to getting unemployment benefits.
>> one can argue about the veracity of virtually any figure put out by any government authority
Duh. Valid, meaningful numbers would warn us that their policies suck. They can’t have THAT, now can they?
Exactly.
There’s a difference between a crash and a correction. Everyone keeps saying the housing market is crashing but they forget that in 2007, people were paying 500,000.00 for a home with a real value of 100,000.00. In other words, due to super low interest rates, housing values were massively inflated. Now the prices are falling to what they should be. That’s a correction, not a crash.
Rural JoCo. It’s always been bad out here but now?
And the GP paper is about 1/3 the size it used to be a few years ago.
What’s a “Charles Nenner?”
Never heard of him.
Your exact same anecdotal line was said by several people right before the stock market crash of 2008. In other words, you anecdotal observation means nothing in light of 20% unemployment, tight credit, a falling US housing market, Eurozone nations on the brink of financial collapse, a spiralling federal deficit and national debt. I could go on for pages... Most people think the worst is ove.r Most people are clueless.
--and finally aligning with a long term historical trend line.
And the GP paper is about 1/3 the size it used to be a few years ago.
Aha...The Daily Courier. Our noble rag, kept alive only through the daily Notices of Default. A paper so liberal
it thinks Teddy Kennedy was a RINO.
Rural JoCo? Where? Grants Pass is dying.
13.9% in one month! It has only started. Once the debt unwind gains steam witha vengeance, look out below. Ben Bernanke cannot stop it.
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