Posted on 11/14/2010 11:22:24 PM PST by SeattleBruce
With the vast majority of write-in ballots counted, both Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Republican Joe Miller looked to Monday – when election officials will begin counting thousands of absentee ballots — as a key day in their U.S. Senate race.
After about 5,000 write-in ballots were counted Sunday, Murkowski kept up her success rate of winning about 89 percent of the write-in votes outright, plus an additional 8 percent of write-in votes that were challenged but still counted for the senator anyway.
However, officials still have to count about 40,000 absentee ballots this week, according to the Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai. That figure includes several thousand absentee ballots with write-in votes that have not been counted yet.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
“plus an additional 8 percent of write-in votes that were challenged but still counted for the senator anyway.”
What this really means is that the law is not being followed in the way they are counted. The law clearly states that the oval must be filled in beside the write in blank AND that the name on the ballot must be written in as it appears on the list of write in candidates. What they are doing is “deeming voter intent” and ignoring the law.
The following is a link to the UOCAVA ballots for 2008. P. 6 has a US map showing the number mailed from each state.
I finally decided to go to the Miller/Murkowski website to see what they are saying regarding count, etc. From Murkowski [take all with a grain of salt]:
Nov, 15 @04:18am
JUNEAU, AK—Nearly 5,000 write-in ballots were counted today, Sunday November 14, in Juneau with Senator Lisa Murkowski receiving 4,733 of them. Murkowski now has a total of 85,756 votes through the end of Sunday, just 1,761 votes behind Joe Miller’s current total.
On Monday, the Division of Elections will count approximately 8,600 remaining absentee ballots. The only remaining ballots to be counted after Monday will come from overseas voters.
“The ballots that could still come in from overseas will number in the hundreds and not in the thousands. So, if Joe Miller were to close the gap it would have to come tomorrow,” said Murkowski campaign manager Kevin Sweeney. “After tomorrow’s absentee count we should have close to a final picture on this election,” Sweeney added.
***********
Murkowski continues strong write-in paceNov, 15 @04:18am
....... There remain more than 8,000 absentee ballots to be counted. And it’s estimated there are approximately 25,000 more write-in ballots yet to be tabulated.
Today, most of the ballots reviewed came from rural Alaska. Also today, the challenge rate from observers from the Joe Miller campaign increased noticeably. Still, Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai continued to overturn approximately 90% of those challenges.
The Division of Elections plans to begin counting the write-in ballots cast by absentee, questioned, and early voters beginning tomorrow. DOE Director Gail Fenumiai says they hope to finish the write-in tabulation process by Wednesday of next week.
******* ———————*************
From the Miller Website:
http://joemillerforsenate.com/2010/11/15/miller-still-leads-in-uncontested-ballot-count/
Anchorage, Alaska. November 14, 2010
After 5 days of write-in ballot counting, Republican nominee Joe Miller still leads incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the uncontested write-in ballot count. As of Sunday night, 88,076 of the total 98,565 write-in votes have been counted and Miller has 87,517 uncontested votes and Murkowski only has 78,697. If current trends hold, Miller and Murkowski will likely end up in a dead heat in the uncontested ballot count.
Tomorrow, approximately 8,800 absentee ballots are due to be counted as well as 1,000 overseas (mostly military) ballots. Miller has had a very strong showing in the absentee ballots and particularly among the military community. Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto said, “If previous trends hold for the absentee ballot count, it is possible for Joe to gain as many as 1,000 votes against Lisa Murkowski tomorrow.”
end snip........********
Yeah, it is the spell of bringing home the federal pork. These folks do not want to be separated from their fed pork gravytrain.
What we don’t see are how many are *returned*, of the 13,000+ transmitted for AK in the 2008 presidential election. Some people here said that the service people don’t vote in very high percentages. Anyone know differently? Or is AK different from other states?
What we don’t see are how many are *returned*, of the 13,000+ transmitted for AK in the 2008 presidential election.
Yes that data is in the report on down in the tables. Somewhere in the page # 20s. It shows how many of each type was returned, how many were valid and how many were counted.... You just need to dig down into the report.
I'm sad that there's not 22,000 or even 40,000 to go, as that would have been good news for Joe. What in the world was Politico's article saying - it's so far off. Maybe they meant about 40,000 TOTAL votes to go - but even those numbers don't add up. I'm confirming that the AK elections office is both incompetent and not to be trusted statistically - not a good thing relative to a close/strange election like this. They are not communicating well. That may be an ultimate CYA maneuver on their side.
Here's two things that did it for me. First off, my wife had the displeasure of sitting next to him on a commercial flight. He was full of himself and hit on her throughout the flight. When the flight landed and they got up out of their seats, she made him look so small because it was plain for everyone to see that she was nearly a foot taller than he was.
My other strike against him goes back to the Monica Lewinsky story. During the seven months between the initial denial and the confession, Whoraldo insisted that Clinton was innocent and the victim of a witch hunt. After the confession, Whoraldo announces matter-of-factly that he knew Clinton was guilty the whole time and it was silly for anyone to think otherwise. For a fellow womanizer, I am sure Geraldo knew. But he lied along with Clinton all that time, thus tossing on the ash heap of journalistic history any integrity and credibility that he might have.
That doesn’t sound good. If Miller ends up with a slight lead with uncontested ballots, Murkowski will win. She won’t win legitimately, of course, but with the courts showing an obvious willingness to ignore the law (as they have already done repeatedly) she will get thousands upon thousands of illegal votes counted towards her total and this will put her over the top.
...when election officials will begin counting thousands of absentee ballots -- as a key day in their U.S. Senate race. After about 5,000 write-in ballots were counted Sunday, Murkowski kept up her success rate of winning about 89 percent of the write-in votes outright, plus an additional 8 percent of write-in votes that were challenged but still counted for the senator anyway. However, officials still have to count about 40,000 absentee ballots this week, according to the Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai. That figure includes several thousand absentee ballots with write-in votes that have not been counted yet.
I know Miller has been telling the press that a write-in vote must be perfect because Alaska has always done it that way. Many of us remember the 1998 Robin Taylor write-in intent was the standard. The state couneted misspellings, first initial and last name and other non perfect votes. I expect this is the standard any court will take today.
tk
Not sure you have the update, 102,028 write-in votes, 90,448 Miller votes.
AFN has asked the judge to join the Miller case.
tk
Canadians have numbers like that ~ most analysts attribute such high registration rates to intense winters. Politics is an indoor sport.
“She won’t win legitimately, of course, but with the courts showing an obvious willingness to ignore the law (as they have already done repeatedly) she will get thousands upon thousands of illegal votes counted towards her total and this will put her over the top.”
I think this is one likely outcome. I think Miller will have an uphill battle to get AK to uphold its own clearly stated election law. And all for the murky sen. write-in.
Sunken, you may want to know that we’re doubting the veracity of the 40,000 yet to be counted absentees, as both the Miller and Murk camps cite a number greatly lower than that - around 8,800 plus around 1,000 military ballots (see deport’s post #63 above), yet to be counted. We’re not sure why the Politico article and Gail Fenumiai could have this so wrong, but it appears they do - and that’s unfortunate for Joe.
“Not sure you have the update, 102,028 write-in votes, 90,448 Miller votes.”
Looks like Miller gained 2,931 or so votes and write-ins gained 3,463 or so votes today...not good. 3,463 * 89.5% is 3,099 - still out ahead of Joe, for today.
On the plus side, there are still at least several thousands and maybe many more absentee ballots to count - but who knows how many at this point, as the dept. of elections has been very coy with this information.
Miller - 90,448
murky - 89.32% uncontested * 102,028 = 91,131
91,131 less 90,448 = 683 votes.
This one is a squeaker with uncontested votes. It will come down to contested votes, of which there are 9470 total from both camps.
HOW MANY ABSENTEES and MILITARY BALLOTS ARE STILL UNCOUNTED?
The write-in ratio of 89% isn’t going to hold up in the absentees; but I take your point, there aren’t enough left to close the gap?
http://www.ktuu.com/news/ktuu-murkowski-pulls-ahead-111510,0,3548210.story
“Ballot counting is finished for Monday.
Elections workers and volunteers will return Tuesday and continue to pore over ballots. Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell says that could continue likely until the end of the week.
Absentee votes represent the last big batch of outstanding ballots from the Nov. 2 election.”
HOW MANY ABSENTEE BALLOTS REMAIN STATE OF ALASKA??
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/11/15/politics-us-alaska-senate_8108366.html
“Murkowski ran as a write-in after losing the primary. A total of 8,707 votes were added Monday. It gave write-in votes the lead, with 102,028 votes cast. Miller had 90,448 votes....
—snip—
But up to 600 overseas ballots have until Wednesday to be returned. The state will count those on Friday.”
Well, are there any other remaining absentees - I’m starting to think that the absentees except for the 600 potential additional overseas ballots, have been counted, making Politico’s article yesterday evening discussing 40,000 absentee ballots ‘yet to counted’ balantly false.
I hate to say, it’s looking like it will be close to a tie on UNcontested votes, which would mean Joe’s only recourse would be if the courts upheld all his 7601 vote challenges, and give murky none of her 1869 challenges.
“but I take your point, there aren’t enough left to close the gap?”
The Politico article/reporter here quoted Gail what’s her bucket at the AK State Elections office as saying there were 40,000 uncounted absentee ballots - when by all other accounts that doesn’t seem to be the case.
It’s such an error/falsehood and gave us false hope that Joe could pull significantly ahead of murky in both undisputed and disputed vote totals.
I think Joe MIGHT be able to tie murky with uncontested votes - but even that’s in doubt - unless there’s more absentee ballots out there. The Forbes article just above, said only about 600 *possible* military ballots remain out. So, yes, looking tough for Joe to hold the line against lying murky hoping to be sen. write-in.
There are 600 overseas yet to come in. Also see post 71.
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