Posted on 11/14/2010 4:20:08 PM PST by WebFocus
It seems the panic time for both green enthusiasts and peak oil pundits.
According to a new paper by two researchers at the University of California – Davis, it would take 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel given the current pace of research and development; however, world's oil could run dry almost a century before that.
The research was published on Nov. 8 at Environmental Science & Technology, which is based on the theory that market expectations are good predictors reflected in prices of publicly traded securities.
By incorporating market expectations into the model, the authors, Nataliya Malyshkina and Deb Niemeier, indicated that based on their calculation, the peak of oil production could occur between 2010 and 2030, before renewable replacement technologies become viable at around 2140.
The estimates not only delayed the alternative energy timeline, but also pushed up the peak oil deadline. The researchers suggest some previous estimates that pegged year 2040 as the time frame when alternatives would start to replace oil, could be “overly optimistic".
As I pointed out before, despite the excitement and hype surrounding a future of clean energy, a majority of the current technology simply does not make economic sense for regular consumers and lack the infrastructure for a mass deployment….even with government subsidies, tax breaks, and outright mandates.
In addition, the supply chain of renewable technologies is not as green as people might think. Most alternative technologies rely on rare earths for efficiency. However, the radioactive waste produced by rare earths mining process makes oil sands look like a green energy. This overlooked (or ignored) fact just now received some attention due to the sudden shortage caused by China’s embargo and export quotas on rare earths.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
bfl
Deep petroleum and the non-organic theory
http://www.ias.ac.in/currsci/aug25/articles7.htm
UC-Davis, eh?
In 1979 I was taught, in college, that at the current rate of 1979 consumption that we would run out of oil in the year 2000. Ten years ago. The bottom line is that nobody really knows how much oil is down there.
Convert Michael Moore to oil. We can drive for another hundred years.
There is a 300 year supply of oil in Alaska. Start drilling.
I don’t buy the peak oil scam. It’s been around for a long time, and the date keeps getting pushed back. Deep wells, new oil fields, shale oil, clean burning coal, nuclear power, natural gas, and we are set for a couple of hundred more years, plenty of time for serious scientists who aren’t wasting their time on global warming to find exotic new energies. The ten year prediction of doom will turn into twenty years, will turn into fifty years, will turn into one hundred years. It’s how the prognosticators of doom and gloom work. The biggest threat to the world is big government and the control freaks who want it all.
So sad but true! I do expect that when things get dour that even a liberal Government would allow drilling - might be just optimism though... Never can ignore the stupidity of liberals idiots...
Shoot, six months ago they said the BP oil leak was going to blast uncontrollably for 20 years. Now were back to the 'earth is running dry of oil' nonsense again.
The USGS was formed in part because of fear of oil shortages in 1879, yet every year the reserves grow and grow.
Stop posting this peak oil propaganda, please. It just isn't true.
And yet even the author of that book acknowledges that the world isn't running out of oil anytime soon.
A few days ago I saw what looked to be a pretty fascinating article -- about the potential for producing oil from plastics . . . basically by reversing the process that is used to create plastic out of oil in the first place.
We'll have to build nukes from orbit, it's the only way to be sure...
Do we have enough time to start an intensive whale breeding program?
It has a certain symmetry, petroleum replaced whale oil, now it’s time for whales to step forward again.
Ten years is pure crap. We are finding new deposits all the time.
Wasn't this crap being peddled 30 years ago?
Well anyone with half a brain can figure out green energy won’t do it for another 50 years at least.
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