Posted on 11/10/2010 6:17:30 AM PST by blam
Yes Virginia, There Is Global Food Inflation
by: Mercenary Trader
November 10, 2010
In case you were skeptical (and apparently some still are) — a quick roundup on the food inflation front:
1) Dean Foods (DF) becomes another casualty of sky-rocketing input costs (hat tip TRB). From the conference call (upon which the stock got whacked):
The negative effect of this volume softness was amplified by the dramatic increase in Class II butterfat costs in the quarter, which created additional pressure on gross profits. Class II butterfat averaged $2.12 per pound in the quarter, and increased 70% from the year-ago period and more than 25% above the second quarter.
As a reminder, Class II butterfat is a key input in our creamer, cultured and ice cream products businesses, where the pass-through of changes in input costs is less efficient than fluid milk.
The continued gross margin pressure on the business, higher fuel costs and increased bad debt expenses all contributed to drive segment operating profit well below year-ago levels…
2) From the UK:
UK food prices were 9.8% higher last month than a year ago, the biggest annual increase since October 2008, according to the Office for National Statistics. Imported food prices climbed 4.5% on the year, the fastest rate since October 2009, pushing up the price of bread and margarine.
3) And in the United States…
An inflationary tide is beginning to ripple through America’s supermarkets and restaurants, threatening to end the tamest year of food pricing in nearly two decades.
Prices of staples including milk, beef, coffee, cocoa and sugar have risen sharply in recent months.
And food makers and retailers including McDonald’s Corp., Kellogg Co. and Kroger Co. have begun to signal that they’ll try to make consumers shoulder more of the higher costs for ingredients.
4) And of course China…
"Everything is expensive right now — food, especially the vegetables,” said Li Huijun, a 53-year-old hospital clerk, who complained as she shopped at Lianhua Supermarket in Shanghai that lettuce used to cost only 1 renminbi per 500 grams, or 15 cents for about a pound, but now costs about twice that amount. “And not to mention clothes, and shoes,” Ms. Li said. “They all went up, except my salary.”
And yet, things may be even worse than the consumer price index suggests. A growing number of analysts say inflationary pressure is stronger than the price index indicates, because it is heavily weighted toward food — particularly pork prices. Rising energy, property and transportation costs are not as significant a factor in the index. And even the price increases of many food items — aside from pork — are also not adequately weighed or calculated, analysts say…
5) Not to mention the rest of the world…
The CRB/Reuters U.S. Spot Raw Industrials index, a gauge of 22 commodities including butter and soybean oil, rose to an all- time high on Oct. 25. Meat prices advanced to a two-decade high in August, according to a UN index….
Palm oil traded on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange may rise 18 percent to 3,600 ringgit ($1,161) a metric ton by March, extending this year’s 15 percent advance… “The critical period of tightness is yet to come,” said Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd. who has traded cooking oils for more than three decades…”
6) And, as a piece de resistance, the CEO of Starbucks (SBUX) weighs in:
Let me give you some perspective on coffee prices as we see it… This is the first time in our entire history that we’ve seen coffee prices artificially soar when there is no real issue on supply and demand.
So we’re dealing with uncharted waters here. And the unfortunate thing is, that the people making money on the coffee market are not coffee growers. It’s people on the financial side.
So, yeah. For those saying “inflation is contained,” try looking a little harder.
I keep telling you that "speculation" is what is driving this (and a few global traders). Butter is up, coffee is up, pork is up. BUT, most other items are not. We still produce the vast majority of our food in the U.S. (not off season fruit, etc) The Fed's actions have not yet caused a cost push on food prices produced in this country, that could come in the future because of fuel and fertilizer costs.
The sky is not falling yet. And I plan to have a bigger garden next year. Am presently drying some persimmons, huge crop this year and they are great. Pecans are just beginning to fall and I will have ample of those to cook with and eat next year. Life is still good, remember the Dems just got their "butts" kicked on Nov. 2
Hopefully the new house banking committee can teach Ben that
QE does NOT help the economy! When >50% of your economy is a consumer economy, higher prices for food and gas will lower demand for other consumer goods.
OTH, If US deficit spending is not curtailed there won’t be enough dollars in circulation to purchase Tim’s T Bills.
The solution is to cut spending across the board to FY 2000 levels. Other solutions would be to break up the federal government. Many departments should be cut loose to stand alone. Post Office, AMTRACK, US Parks and many, many others.
Another solution would be to divest ALL federal lands except
military bases and federal court houses.
When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, “A quart of wheat for a day’s wages, and three quarts of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!”
— Revelation 6:5-6; NIV
“The U.S. government has been openly manipulating official inflation numbers for several decades now.” (Since the government tied cost of living to Social Security and then started taxing Soc. Sec. income.) “But we really haven’t seen anything yet.” (pure BS)
Funny story from the producer side of ag commodities.
My brother is a dairy farmer. His feed costs are soaring despite a record harvest jamming the elevators. Milk price is dropping like a stone for the farmers yet the cheese factories are not getting the milk that they require to make the cheese cuz fluid milk gets priority.
So, there is a shortage of milk, yet prices are dropping????? wtf? His theory is that they’re putting the squeeze play on producers to cull out the ones who are in debt up to their eyeballs.
this will be a temper raising annoyance to us, but a death sentence to people in many developing countries around the globe
In the dairy industry I can sure see the big guys running the little guys out of businesss. It is what has happened in the U.S. since the ‘70s with everything.
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