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Everyone Worried About Pat Toomey's Lead Should Read This (Good breakdown from NRO)
National Review Online ^ | October 21, 2010 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 10/21/2010 11:46:11 AM PDT by GOPinCa

For those who are worried about Pat Toomey’s sudden slip in the polls in Pennsylvania — and I was among them — you’ll want to read this analysis from “Number Cruncher,” a finance/political junkie who spends even more time breaking down polls than I do.

Your readers should calm down. This race isn’t that close, or even closing. The only thing closing is the pollsters’ prediction of who to consider a likely voter. Looking at the Quinnipiac results, I find them very encouraging for Toomey, specifically among Independents. Taking the Quinnipiac crosstabs and applying 2004, 2006, 2008, and my predicted 2010 Likely voter model, the results are as follows:

2004: The last good GOP year, Pennsylvania exit poll crosstabs came in with party ID at 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, 20 percent Independent. If you apply this breakdown to Quinnipiac’s sense of how each group is voting, it results in a 2.1 percent Toomey win. This year is the most likely turnout comparable to use based on history only, and one I believe understates GOP support in general.

I think Quinnipiac is using something akin to this year as their turnout mode, but 2004 has me scratching my head, namely the 41 percent Democrat party ID support.

It was a very good year for the GOP, yet if you look at party splits we see only a 2 percent upward tick for Democrats in the 2006 exit polls, when the Democrats had a landslide election — in this election Santorum lost by 18 points!.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: joesestak; pattoomey; pennsylvania; quinnipiac; rasmussen; ricksantorum; toomey
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To: Gondring

I think Sestak will do very well in Southeastern PA, after all, that’s where he’s from. I’m hoping Toomey will do much better in central and western PA. I don’t know if Sestak will be able to mobilize the huge amounts of votes from Philadelphia, in a mid-term election, with the President not on the ballot. Without that kind of turnout, he’ll lose. It’ll be close... 1-2 points, but I think Toomey wins.


21 posted on 10/21/2010 7:43:33 PM PDT by Big E
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To: Gondring

I think Sestak will do very well in Southeastern PA, after all, that’s where he’s from. I’m hoping Toomey will do much better in central and western PA. I don’t know if Sestak will be able to mobilize the huge amounts of votes from Philadelphia, in a mid-term election, with the President not on the ballot. Without that kind of turnout, he’ll lose. It’ll be close... 1-2 points, but I think Toomey wins.


22 posted on 10/21/2010 7:43:48 PM PDT by Big E
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To: flowerplough
Anyone reading here ever been called a “Broken Glass Republican”

I have.

I coined the term in my first post on Free Republic in 2000. (See my homepage for details.)

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

23 posted on 10/21/2010 8:06:36 PM PDT by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: Gondring
and convincing the Country-Club GOP voters that a vote for the GOP is a vote for Christine O'Donnell/Sarah Palin/TeaParty.

In other words, a vote for the GOP is a vote for conservatism. Well, if they don't like conservatism, or they are offended by it, then they should vote democrat. We should never be ashamed of conservatism, that is how we got into this mess to begin with.

24 posted on 10/21/2010 9:09:59 PM PDT by HerrBlucher (Defund, repeal, investigate, impeach, convict, jail, celebrate.)
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To: HerrBlucher
In other words, a vote for the GOP is a vote for conservatism. Well, if they don't like conservatism, or they are offended by it, then they should vote democrat.

That's exactly the point! There are many who are registered Republican but vote Democrat. But people who don't know the area see that and think there must be voter fraud where there isn't. Meanwhile, true voter fraud, not to mention voter intimidation, is sailing right by down in Philadelphia.

And you get the other point, too....that many who are registered GOP, and even usually vote that way, are switching away from their early support of Pat Toomey because Christine O'Donnell is being used to scare voters with a meme of "the GOP is out of control and you can't give them power." Sadly, there are a great many of our fellow Americans who are clueless enough for these things to work.

25 posted on 10/22/2010 1:13:32 AM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: Gondring
And you get the other point, too....that many who are registered GOP, and even usually vote that way, are switching away from their early support of Pat Toomey because Christine O'Donnell is being used to scare voters with a meme of "the GOP is out of control and you can't give them power." Sadly, there are a great many of our fellow Americans who are clueless enough for these things to work.

I am so PI**ED about this!!! It would be so easy to paint the DemonRATs as Communists who want to take over the country! The Republicans have done ZERO campaigning! It makes me wonder where my donations are going!?! I pray to God that there is some plan to destroy the DemonRATS via a national ad campaign beginning this weekend.

26 posted on 10/22/2010 6:29:25 AM PDT by Conservative_Rob
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To: Conservative_Rob

How many people have accompanied you as you go door-to-door this season?


27 posted on 10/22/2010 8:23:19 AM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: Gondring
Some of us have to spend most of our time providing for our families and those protected constitencies who recieve my tax dollars.

I have to depend on the sanctity of the voting booth, and it's been subverted to the point of meaninglessness. I give directly to the candidates I support, not to parties, but I'm not seeing any effective ads being produced by Toomey's campaign.

Where I am, the DemonRATs are running hourly ads with the same old montra "Republicans want to take away your Social Security", Republicans are in bed with Wall Street", Bush was BAD".

This could easily be countered with Obambi's 3 trillion dollar payoff to his Wall Street buddies and unions, which, of course, has made Social Security BROKE! Did you get your cost of living increase the last two years??? Is 10% unemployment better than 4.5% unemployment??? Yep, DemonRATs will protect your Social Security, all the time robbing from it so that your benefits decrease every year to the point that it is worthless. Do you want a gubmint stooge telling you what medical care you are allowed???

I'm just a dumb working Joe. If I can come up with these, then Pat needs a new media director.

28 posted on 10/22/2010 9:41:45 AM PDT by Conservative_Rob
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