Posted on 10/04/2010 12:17:03 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush
Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.
Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Your original comment: “I believe this poll, and fully expect that November won’t be all we wished for.”
‘I did not predict demise in VA, NJ or MA. I’m merely making observations, as an untrained observer. Kind of like a sports fan watching a game.’
++++++++++++++++++
I was responding to your comment that Nov. won’t be all we wished for.
My thought: not unless we allow that to happen (think of a football team holding their destiny in their own hands.)
Cheers!
Sure. I hope and pray that you come to me saying I am a big idiot! Seriously I hope so. I have bookmarked it.
Not depressing at all.
Democrats typically have a three to four point advantage in the generic ballot, based on voter registration. A tie in the generic ballot means big gains for the GOP, and a lead of three or four points fully supports the idea that the GOP will win forty or more seats in the House and seven or eight seats in the Senate.
I assumed that the earlier polls showing a twelve or nine-point advantage for the GOP were outliers, because numbers of that kind would mean a pickup of one hundred seats in the House (or more) and that is unlikely to occur.
“Do folks talk to non rock ribbed conservatives?
Many many many people are uninformed, wishy washy wusses.”
********
Agreed, I see it, too.
Good points. Now up to us to GOTV. (have I said that million times yet?)...:)
What was the final spread for ‘08 and D/R gain/loss? How about ‘94?
That would be a better way to analyze this.
This is not new from me, I am not condemning Ras because the numbers are not to my liking!!! I do not trust ANY poll even if it seems that the numbers are to my liking.
There is no poll out there that I trust. George Gallup a wonderful Christian man, and a pioneer in polling, is long gone.
Is Mr Ras listening in on each telephone call? There are so many variables, as the election closes there will be many polls saying that there is a shift back to Democrats, I predicted this, was not hard to predict.
Show me an honest pollster and I will show you pigs flying. Sorry, JMHO :)
Fox News poll is pure garbage, done by some liberal pollster out of 1 of the New England States, Opinion Dynamics.
Sure they may actually give you an honest poll when it is not crunch time, but when it counts they can not keep there liberal politics out of it. The evidence is strong in the Fox case.
I am supposed to believe that Ras is some type of a republican so his word is gold, sorry I do not buy it.
NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is also garbage. Chuck Todd actually has some input as to the wording of the questions.
Even if you had a honest pollster, what about the people making the calls, are they non partisan robots?
Nobody is non partisan, whether it`s the phony Non partisan White House budget office, whatever...what a joke.
I can’t believe some of you are worried about this election. 9.7 unemployment with no jobs and you think the Dems aren’t going to get flogged?
I’m hopeful too, but cautiously.
There’s still a month to go, and our advantage is dwindling.
Never underestimate advertising - nor the power of the media.
Exactly
The House will go to the conservatives, but we will see gains at least in the Senate.
I don't have a Rasmussen number for 1994, but the final pre-election Gallup generic ballot for 1994 showed a 46-46 tie. That turned out pretty well, as I recall. :)
IMO, Anti-incumbency will be the message of the day on Nov. 2nd.
If a seat is held by someone the challenger will win if he/she is within 3-4% in the polls. Any empty seat will be won by any Republican within 3%.
Picked up two absentee ballot applications at the village hall today for my conservative kids in college. With prodding from me, they WILL vote. It’s up to each individual to make sure they get friends and family to the polls.
I can’t believe some of you are worried about this election. 9.7 unemployment with no jobs and you think the Dems aren’t going to get flogged?No, I am not worried from the standpoint of the GOP winning the House. I think that is very likely even with a tied generic ballot. I have been hoping for a complete washout of the liberals (+75 House, +10 in Senate). That still might happen, because if it holds true that the GOP gets +18 of independents on election day, which is what this poll says in the report, then it will be a complete washout. My only hope is that the polls will say, going into the last week, that the GOP is ahead by 8 or more, and then democrat base gets totally depressed, and the defeat is epic.
I am in this for the long haul. I recognize that whatever step forward this election winds up being it will be just that, one step of many more that will need to follow or this whole election will be a moot point in 10 years.
Democrats are peaking. All of there moonbats are now ready to vote, but still at only 42%. Same happened in 1994 if you look at Gallup. Republicans had big lead then it diminished to even early October then went back up 6 points last week of election. I think probably will happen again.
I think probably will happen again.I hope it is +8 or better in late October so the dem base is totally depressed and don't show up much at all. That would mean an absolute epic beat down.
Hey! Not my words; these are statements made here on FR. Go back to January of 10 and search on "elections"...you'll find the same thing.
Question: so .... why has the fire damped down to an ember if that? Why were the statements so out of whack back in January and so dismal now? As far as voting....I could not agree more. It is, after all, the only real poll there is.
Ras national polls are spot on....state polls are always iffy.
problem, this is a national poll.
silver lining: plus 3 for the GOP is still a good lead....not plus 12, but still good....
No!
No one had more negative ads against thrown agaisnt them than than Chris Christie. The entire 0bozo dirty tricks department went to work for Crozine, and took over Corzine’s campaign. Everything was thrown at Christie. In the end, Christie won by a much bigger margin than the polls were saying(including Rasmussen's).
Why? Because Republicans, and independents were far more fired up to vote against 0bozo and Corzine’s outrageous policies, than Democrats were. As at today, even Gallup has Republicans far more fired up to vote, than the Democrats, a heck of a lot more than they were back in November 2009, when New Jersey's elections were held and the Democrats werwe massacred.
Look at the primaries that have just ended. Republicans had much higher turn outs across the country as compared to 2006/2008 , whilee the Democrats had much lower turn outs. Those are real votes, not just polls.
Rasmussen's numbers have been petty volatile recently. Just last week, he had 0bozo approve/disapprove at +1one day (September 28th), yet the very next day (Sept 29th), 0bozo’s approve/disapprove was back to -6, a swing of -7!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history
So if I were you, I wouldn’t hold out too much hope of a Democratic “comeback”. There is no comeback. Sorry.
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