Posted on 10/02/2010 11:24:59 AM PDT by freespirited
What do you make of a poll that has Republicans losing on the generic ballot by 5 points among registered voters, and by 8 points among “definite” voters, even though the GOP leads among independent voters by 47-30 percent?
I am referring, of course, to the new Newsweek poll that’s been released. How do you suppose Republicans can be losing so badly if they’re winning independents by a ratio better than three-to-two? Here’s how: If you look at how each party does by the voters’ partisan ID, and do the three-by-three equation (handy tool for that here),
(0.93)r+ (.02)d + (0.47)i = 0.43
(0.04)r + (0.96)d + (0.30)i = 0.48
r + d + i = 1
you’ll find their registered voter sample is weighted as follows:
They give different numbers at the end of their report, but this is how the poll is actually weighted, according to the math. It’s possible they made an error and confused the independent and GOP numbers, but more likely they took a Democrat-leaning sample and weighted it to be a bit more Democratic. There’s not necessarily anything wrong with that, but how likely is this turnout model? Well, in 2008, as Obama won his near-landslide victory, national turnout looked like this:
So Newsweek’s poll assumes a lower GOP turnout than in 2008 — nearly 10 percent lower — and equal Democratic turnout to 2008. How likely do you suppose that is? (The likely — or “definite” — sample produces an even more Democratic result, and so although there isn’t enough information to determine its sample, we can probably assume that it is no more Republican than the registered voter sample.)
For reference, here is the 2004 turnout by party ID:
If you apply the 2004 turnout model to their party ID results, here’s your generic ballot outcome:
So in short, I wouldn’t go out and place any longshot bets based on this poll.
Hah!
Sounds to me like Newsweak has begun trying to cover up the upcoming voter fraud from the commie ‘RATS.
Sounds to me like Newsweak has begun trying to cover up the upcoming voter fraud from the commie ‘RATS.
Nothing but wishful thinking by newsweak
LOL NewsWEAK..yeah I trust a magazine that sold for a buck
Isn’t that the publication that each magazine is sold for more than what the company is worth?
Hey, what do you want or expect from a magazine that sold for one lousy buck?
Evidently someone knows what they are worth.
Like all newsweak poll this one is full of balony
The turnout will be record high. People are PISSSED.
Trying to demoralize the conservative GOP won't work. Most are onto that simple minded trick.
This is what you get when you buy a magazine for $1.00.
I know a couple of publications that are going to be real surprised this November.
Wouldn’t you think this would create an even larger Elephant stampede to the polls?
We will be 'in their faces' this time. And I expect the Republican winners to do their job and take no prisoners (like Bush did)
Questions: Do the Republicans have a ACORN type fraud administration? Do the Republicans have intimidating whites with batons at voting places? If so I haven't heard about it.
All those Dem politicians racing to put pro-Obama care and pro-stimulus commercials on the air are highly confident of this polling.
Nice job! In past elections I have uncovered bias in media sponsored polls by using the three equations in three unknowns approach and found that the polls almost always over sampled Democrats and under sampled Republicans. NBC, CBS and CNN are the worst.
Ah well. Just means Newsweak’s gonna have some `splaning to do after November 2, assuming they’re still in business.
Yeah, Harmon bought the whole company for less than the price of a single issue.
It will help keep the liberals complacent and the conservatives motivated to get out and vote.
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