Posted on 09/18/2010 11:19:16 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
We've added another Vulnerable Dem to our Master List: WV-03
That brings our list to 99 seats. We now have 87 Vulnerable Democrats and 12 pretty safe Republicans on out list.
This weeks news:
It was a pretty average week for our six "Experts" with a total of 23 upgrades to the races on the KHR Master List but the Dems managed to get just 3 of those 23.
We've added the Freedom's Lighthouse to our list of Pickup Projections and they currently are predicing a 49 seat pickup.
We are now listing all the Pickup Projections we can find on the Home Page at KHR.
And we've revised our list of the latest Polls. We now list all of our polls sorted by both District and the KHR Posting Date. You can find those Polls HERE.
We've also added a link on the KHR Home page to our Tier 2 List. That's the list of Districts that are showing some movement in the polls and with our 6 "Experts". We've promoted 8 of these races to the Master List in the last few weeks.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.160 from last weeks -.158.
Yikes you say - just like last week. How can we make such a small pickup with all those positive changes for the Republicans????
The answer is that we've added another Vulnerable Dem to our list that is, at this point, still favored to hold on to his seat. This skews are index. We knew that would happen when we add new Dems to the list. But we've added one more target and that is what counts.
September 18: Hawaii Freepers - Go vote for Charles Djou. Show the power of the Tea Party.
And when we see that there are currently only 48 seats even rated to the point of being a toss-up....the notion that we predict from there that we will carry 49, I find hard to swallow. That is suggesting, is it not, that we will carry every toss-up race, plus take one more that is currently "leaning D"...without losing one of our own (which currently looks like we could lose 2-3).
bttt
But most of the predications have the GOP over the 39 pickup that is needed.
These guys have a critera they follow, and the movement is moving towards more GOP seats, not less.
Reports on the entire primary season show millions more GOP than Dem votes overall. The last time that happened was 1926.
That, in of itself, is a good indication that something big is going to hit the Democrats in Nov.
ping
Go to dickmorris.com.
You’ll find what you’re looking for there.
I agree. There are far too many unhatched chickens being counted.
All we know about the egg-layers thus far is that some of them are pregnant. ;)
Is Grayson in trouble? I figure the only way Grayson goes is if the nutters in his district vote his ass out in a primary to exchange him for another rat. I don’t see that district ever going pub. I could be wrong. Hope I am.
We’re still over 6 weeks out. There are many toss-ups right now because of the long time gap until election day. As we get closer, then-current polling will solidify the trend and only those within the margin of error or close to it will be considered toss-ups. Unless the margin is around 15 or more, the “leans” don’t mean much eaither.
The last week of October will tell the story.
The rats have something up their sleaze - they always do.
Just personal observation—
NY 23 : Got a knock on the door from two Bill Owens “volunteers” today, told them that if they or their campaign had actually read the e-mail I sent to Owens months ago, they would not have put me on their list of potential supporters (that’s who they said they were stopping out to “chat” with) because I had specifically said if he voted for Obamacare no one in my extended family would ever even consider voting for him. They admitted they were hearing a lot of this type of thing! Their body language told me they didn’t like what they were hearing today.
NY 25: Dan Maffei’s commercials are awful. The one’s he is actually in he looks like a clueless fat faced kid with a dumb look on his face. He talks about policies he supports that are not popular around here. It’s like free campaign commercials for his opponent. He didn’t win by much the last time around, I don’t believe.
Living on the boarder of NY 23 and 25 (I vote in 23), I don’t sense any enthusiasm for either Dem, both Republican candidates can win if they get out there and push fiscally conservative ideas. We don’t like Obamacare, bailouts or cap and trade.
In NY 23 people like to see their candidate face to face and Bill Owens has been attemting to cultivate that support with face to face or seregate visits. Maffei has pockets of democrats throughout Onondaga county that are very loyal. If the Republican candidates get out there, get seen, and point out the distinct differences in policy, they will win.
IN other words, she wants us to give the money back?
Interesting but he's following some real long shots. I like our list better. Of course he is predicting up to a 80 seat swing so some of those long shots have to come in for that to happen.
The Siena poll is the most bizarre set of numbers I have seen in any kind of poll all cycle. It absolutely defies every other poll in the country...
California - GOP tied for Senate, running away with Gov
Ohio - GOP running away with Senate and Gov
Pennsylvania - GOP running away with Senate and Gov
New Hampshire - GOP holding Senate, reclaiming both House seats
The poll makes no sense whatsoever - did Siena outsource the project to Research-2000?
“The huge Tsunami is going to slam the Dems on November 2nd, and the whining lamentations from PMSNBC, cBS, CNN, NBC will be fun to watch. ;-)”
Watching? Surely you’re not just sitting around and “watching”? Tell us how involved you are with the ground game, with GOTV. This “Tsumani” will NOT happen if we aren’t doing our part.
This goes to all Freepers - if you haven’t already, Please Adopt a Race
- donate
- go door-to-door
- help out on the phone bank
- etc
We need to work hard to make our hopes a reality. And, as conservatives, we wouldn’t want it any other way!
“LOL! Love this line. There ain’t no such thing as a Blue Dog!”
Well, there SHOULDN’T be such a thing as a Blue Dog. I suggest that, starting Nov 3, we Freepers begin a Red Wolf coalition to hunt down and kill (politically, of course) any remaining Blue Dogs.
Blue Dogs are just about the most insidious group in the USA, worse than ACORN or the SEIU in many ways, because without the Blue Dogs so many other smarmy organizations would be toast.
Red Wolf coalition, anyone?
Larry Sabato over at UVA has 2 approaches - he does a top-down macro analysis, and he does a bottom-up micro analysis.
He says the GOP will pick up 47 seats based on his top-down “crystal ball” macro model; but if you review his race-by-race bottom-up micro predictions, there is no way to get them to add to 47.
I tried doing a probability-weighted computation on his individual rankings and it comes out to low 30’s. For example, if the Likely’s are assigned an 80% probability of changing hands, the Lean’s 60%, and the Toss-ups 50%, it works out to 32.7 net seats. Regardless of what reasonable symmetrical probability structure you use, it still works out to low 30’s for the Pubs.
Clearly, Larry has to pick it up, his race-by-race numbers contradict his vaunted crystal ball.
There you have it - he knows the GOP is going to pick up a lot of seats Nationally, but doesn’t feel he has the granular data yet to make many predictions on roll-overs of specific seats.
“That, in of itself, is a good indication that something big is going to hit the Democrats in Nov.”
It will only happen if we work hard to make it happen - if you haven’t already, pick a race, get involved, donate, hit the phone bank, go door to door, put a sign on your lawn, a sticker on your car, tell your friends, and most of all take the day off on Nov 2 and help GOTV!
However, when you look at it, and analyze it from the micro / bottom up approach it does get hard to see how we will win more than low 30 seats. Still a big election night win for us.
Reality is we can win 38 seats and this will allow the MSM to declare victory for Obama and the left....when that would not be the case. The MSM is already in overdrive behind the scenes should this happen.
I'm with others, in that I believe a wave has to be coming. This country is sitting at 10% unemployment, Gov't is growing everywhere, elitists attitudes from the left within gov't are slapping more Americans in the face each day.....there has to be a counter to that (even if the GOP/RNC seem inept at pointing any of this out).
great work ... looking forward to further development of tier2 list.
also, some of these races would be of no interest to Freepers. Example: NH2 ... NARAL RINO vs. CommieGal.
I like it!
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