Posted on 09/01/2010 5:31:23 AM PDT by abb
ROSELAND, NJ--(Marketwire - September 1, 2010) - Private sector employment decreased by 10,000 from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.
There is plenty of bad economic news, but it seems to me that Obama's ego (with help from Pelosi) is making it worse.
House incumbent defeats:
Senate incumbent defeats:
So while 10,000 MORE private sector jobs were lost, how many public sector jabs were added??
” Most of the temporary census jobs went away in August. When will their impact be recorded? “
Won’t be - most of the census jobs were part-time, so not eligible for unemployment benefits, and they won’t show up on the “new claims” unemployment figures...
So the Gummint can show “jobs created” without having to show “jobs lost”....
Cute, huh??
Which is why I have no money left in the stock market. Other unpredictable forces are at play. Very dangerous.
We are going into what are historically the two months most likely to crash, sep and oct, and we have seen a clear deterioration in the economic figures in the past few weeks, so you are right to be nervous.
I have index funds but they are heavily hedged using deeply in the money covered calls. This yields far more than bonds, and doesn’t lose money unless the market falls by more than 5% in the next month. Even if it does fall that far, there are follow-up actions that will protect most of the principle down further.
The reason i do this is because, while this is a very scary time for stocks, the market is pretty oversold right now, and bonds may be heading for a huge bubble pop so they are no better. If the data improves even slightly, the deeply in the money calls will lose all their time value and I can unwind the position for a quick profit. If the market stays flat, the options again lose time value and I collect dividends in the meantime waiting for them to expire and call away the stock. If the market drops modestly (5%), I still get all of the above benefits. Only in the case of a sharper drop (6+%) does this position start to lose principle. But if a drop starts to occur, I could in most cases roll down the options to a lower strike to provide more of a cushion. The main risk is if there is a sudden “gap down” that does not allow time for a roll. That could happen but I’m ok with taking that risk.
Thats a nice strategy!
But where is your break even if the market rises?
Dow is up about 125 now.
Maybe running Casper Milquetoast Bob Dole put a damper on Rep/Conservative enthusiasm.
You know how to play that game. Most do not and will get killed I bet. Do you think that October will be a selling month because of the tax changes in january? I think all the taxes will go up and if I had some gains it might be better to take them then.
That's an excellent question. It's quite possible public sector lost jobs in august, because lots of states are cutting budgets. Although congress passed a 28 billion dollar public union bailout bill a few weeks back, that probably won't save all the cut jobs by a long shot. I think we could see public employment basically flat in august. It would not surprise me to see it decline somewhat. We'll know in 2 days.
I saved this quote from a FReeper post some time ago..
how prophetic!!
"What I find interesting is that no one looks back to when the Democrats took control of Congress. In January 2007 the economy was strong, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood above 10,000 and was rising, and unemployment was 4.3%. The mess that Mr. Obama is now trying to clean up is the result of the 2007 Democratic Congress. And if you think that is bad, wait until you see the mess created by this Congress."
Seems like the markets are not related to the US economy but the world economy. Wonder if you have to pay US tax if you invest from out of the country and are not a US citizen.
My son’s wife works for the IRS in a claims department (”I need my money NOW and I didn’t get my refund”) and reports that small businesses are dropping like flies.
The damage being done is even greater than what’s being reported.
soros and others.
LLS
And the Oklahoma City terrorist attack, which Clinton parlayed into an attack on his political opposition.
There was the "shutdown of the federal government", which Gingrich handled badly.
I had forgotten about the 28B more in spending the Dem’s rammed through...hat tip./
Payback's a bitch.
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