Posted on 08/21/2010 9:26:43 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news:
Jaime Herrera won the Republican primary in WA-03.
The Master List has been updated to include the winners of all completed primaries - and there are no recounts in progress at this time. The "Race at a Glance" entries on the KHR Home Page have also been updated to include WA-03 and all funding data, polls and "Expert Ratings" have been updated as well. Our normal procedure is to update the financial data and Expert Ratings once a week but to update the poll data as we find it.
So please send us links to any poll data that you think we've missed. You can always see our latest 3 polls on the KHR Home Page and we also list the most recent poll for each district on the KHR Polls Page.
There were more than the average number of changes to the Experts Ratings this week - 10 from Cook, 3 from Election Projection and 6 from RCP. The last update we have from Sabato was July 8th. Rothenberg is also overdue - his last update was July 19th. CQPolitics is also mostly AWOL and clearly falling behind their competitors in the ratings race.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.251 from last weeks -.289. That's a pretty big jump and reflects the fact that the Republicans won this weeks rating upgrade race by 19 to nothing. A very good week for the Republicans. Take a look at our KeyHouseRaces Experts Page to see where the changes in ratings were this week. All RED entries.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page
We've added a new page to show the Master List in a ranked order. The ranking is based on the average Expert Rating of each district by our six "Experts" with the Most likely Republican winners at the top and the most likely Dem winners at the bottom. The fight for control of the House is in the middle of this list where the Toss-Up races meet the Leans Ds. That's the ones we have to win.
You can see the ranked version of the Master List HERE .
Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for the remaining August Primaries:
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Louisiana
There are couple of format changes that are worth noting - I've added the numerical "score" for the individual district ratings and I've colored in the dead-even Toss-Up races in gray.
| # | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent or Open |
Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Avg. | Experts | District | # | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||||
| 1 | OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent R | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | 2.8 | Safe R | OH | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | 2.5 | Likely R | FL | 12 | 2 |
| 3 | MN | 6 | Tarryl Clark | Incumbent R | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | 2.3 | Likely R | MN | 6 | 3 | ||
| 4 | TN | 6 | Brett Carter | Open D | Diane Black | TN | 5-Aug | 2.2 | Likely R | TN | 6 | 4 | ||
| 5 | NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent R | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | 2.0 | Likely R | NE | 2 | 5 | ||
| 6 | AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | 1.7 | Likely R | AR | 2 | 6 | ||
| 7 | LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Open D | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | 1.7 | Likely R | LA | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent R | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | 1.7 | Likely R | PA | 6 | 8 | ||
| 9 | CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | 1.3 | Leans R | CA | 3 | 9 | ||
| 10 | NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Open D | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | 1.3 | Leans R | NY | 29 | 10 |
| 11 | WA | 8 | Suzan DelBene | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | 1.3 | Leans R | WA | 8 | 11 | ||
| 12 | FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | 1.2 | Leans R | FL | 25 | 12 |
| 13 | OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | 0.8 | Leans R | OH | 15 | 13 | ||
| 14 | CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | CO | 10-Aug | 0.7 | Leans R | CO | 4 | 14 | ||
| 15 | KS | 3 | Stephene Moore | Open D | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | 0.7 | Leans R | KS | 3 | 15 | ||
| 16 | MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | 0.7 | Leans R | MD | 1 | 16 |
| 17 | ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | 0.7 | Leans R | ND | AL | 17 | ||
| 18 | NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | 0.7 | Leans R | NM | 2 | 18 | ||
| 19 | OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | 0.7 | Leans R | OH | 1 | 19 | ||
| 20 | IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | 0.5 | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | 20 | ||
| 21 | MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | 0.5 | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | 21 | ||
| 22 | NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | Sean Mahoney | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | 0.5 | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | 22 |
| 23 | NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Open D | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | 0.5 | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | 23 |
| 24 | PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | 24 | ||
| 25 | TN | 8 | Roy Herron | Open D | Stephen Fincher | TN | 5-Aug | 0.5 | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | 25 | ||
| 26 | VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | 0.5 | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | 26 | ||
| 27 | FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | 0.3 | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | 27 |
| 28 | MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | MI | 3-Aug | 0.3 | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | 28 | ||
| 29 | NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | 0.3 | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | 29 | ||
| 30 | PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | 0.3 | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | 30 | ||
| 31 | WA | 3 | Denny Heck | Open D | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | 31 |
| 32 | FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | 0.2 | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | 32 |
| 33 | IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | 0.2 | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | 33 | ||
| 34 | IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | 0.2 | Toss-Up | IL | 11 | 34 | ||
| 35 | IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | 0.2 | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | 35 | ||
| 36 | MI | 1 | Gary McDowell | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | MI | 3-Aug | 0.2 | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | 36 | ||
| 37 | NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | 0.2 | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | 37 | ||
| 38 | SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | 0.2 | Toss-Up | SD | AL | 38 | ||
| 39 | TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | 0.2 | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | 39 | ||
| 40 | VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | 0.2 | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | 40 | ||
| 41 | WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Open D | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | 0.2 | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | 41 | |
| 42 | AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | AL | 1-Jun | 0.0 | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | 42 | ||
| 43 | AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | 0.0 | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | 43 | ||
| 44 | HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | -0.2 | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | 44 | ||
| 45 | PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | -0.2 | Toss-Up | PA | 3 | 45 | ||
| 46 | WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | -0.2 | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | 46 | ||
| 47 | IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | -0.3 | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | 47 | ||
| 48 | OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | -0.3 | Toss-Up | OH | 16 | 48 | ||
| 49 | FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | -0.5 | Toss-Up | FL | 2 | 49 |
| 50 | IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | -0.5 | Toss-Up | IA | 3 | 50 | ||
| 51 | NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | -0.5 | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | 51 | ||
| 52 | SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | -0.5 | Toss-Up | SC | 5 | 52 | ||
| 53 | AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | -0.7 | Leans D | AZ | 8 | 53 |
| 54 | MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Open D | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | -0.7 | Leans D | MA | 10 | 54 |
| 55 | PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | -0.7 | Leans D | PA | 10 | 55 | ||
| 56 | AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | -0.8 | Leans D | AZ | 5 | 56 |
| 57 | CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | -0.8 | Leans D | CA | 11 | 57 | ||
| 58 | ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | -0.8 | Leans D | ID | 1 | 58 | ||
| 59 | NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | -0.8 | Leans D | NY | 19 | 59 | |
| 60 | OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | -0.8 | Leans D | OH | 18 | 60 | ||
| 61 | PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | -0.8 | Leans D | PA | 8 | 61 | ||
| 62 | VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | -0.8 | Leans D | VA | 9 | 62 | ||
| 63 | PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | -1.0 | Leans D | PA | 12 | 63 | ||
| 64 | AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | -1.0 | Leans D | AZ | 1 | 64 |
| 65 | DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Glen Urquhart | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | -1.0 | Leans D | DE | AL | 65 |
| 66 | MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Vicky Hartzler | MO | 3-Aug | -1.0 | Leans D | MO | 4 | 66 | ||
| 67 | NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | -1.0 | Leans D | NJ | 3 | 67 | ||
| 68 | NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | -1.0 | Leans D | NM | 1 | 68 | ||
| 69 | NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | -1.0 | Leans D | NY | 1 | 69 |
| 70 | NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | -1.0 | Leans D | NY | 23 | 70 | |
| 71 | NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | -1.2 | Leans D | NY | 20 | 71 | ||
| 72 | VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | -1.2 | Leans D | VA | 11 | 72 | ||
| 73 | CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | CO | 10-Aug | -1.3 | Leans D | CO | 3 | 73 | ||
| 74 | IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | -1.3 | Leans D | IN | 2 | 74 | ||
| 75 | KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | KY | 8-May | -1.3 | Leans D | KY | 6 | 75 | ||
| 76 | LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | -1.3 | Leans D | LA | 2 | 76 | ||
| 77 | OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | -1.3 | Leans D | OH | 13 | 77 | ||
| 78 | WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | WI | 14-Sep | -1.3 | Leans D | WI | 8 | 78 | |
| 79 | FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | -1.5 | Leans D | FL | 22 | 79 | ||
| 80 | GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | GA | 20-Jul | -1.5 | Leans D | GA | 8 | 80 | ||
| 81 | NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | -1.5 | Leans D | NY | 13 | 81 | |
| 82 | OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | OR | 18-May | -1.7 | Likely D | OR | 5 | 82 | ||
| 83 | TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Quico Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | -1.7 | Likely D | TX | 23 | 83 | ||
| 84 | CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | CT | 10-Aug | -1.8 | Likely D | CT | 4 | 84 | ||
| 85 | CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | CT | 10-Aug | -1.8 | Likely D | CT | 5 | 85 | ||
| 86 | IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | -1.8 | Likely D | IL | 8 | 86 | ||
| 87 | MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | MI | 3-Aug | -1.8 | Likely D | MI | 9 | 87 | ||
| 88 | PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | -1.8 | Likely D | PA | 4 | 88 | ||
| 89 | PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | PA | 18-May | -1.8 | Likely D | PA | 17 | 89 | ||
| 90 | TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | TN | 5-Aug | -2.0 | Likely D | TN | 4 | 90 | ||
| 91 | NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | -2.2 | Likely D | NY | 25 | 91 | ||
| 92 | CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | -2.3 | Likely D | CA | 47 | 92 | ||
| 93 | MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | MN | 14-Sep | -2.3 | Likely D | MN | 1 | 93 | ||
Voter fraud will become an art form.Bet on it.
Those changes moved our index to -.251 from last weeks -.289.
There is not enough voter fraud on the planet to stop what is going to happen.
BTTT!!
Thanks for the ping!
We just received notice that our “voting machines” have changed. You must now mark, on paper, your vote and “run it through” a new machine.
Last time I voted, my line’s machine “broke” and I had to vote on a paper ballet. I WAS NOT HAPPY.
http://www.vote-ny.com/english/machine-sequoia.php
great chart
Single best political chart I’ve seen. Great work, great layout. It’s rare to see complex info presented this clearly, in any field.
Be on the lookout for other methods to be attempted then.
BTTT
SEIU, New Black Panther and ACORN thugs at the polls.
That’s what Buffalo Bore 10-mm Auto 185 grain JHP’s are for. Will split em open wide like a ripe watermelon.
Well thank you. It's a lot of work but when we win back the House we will take a little bit of the credit.
| Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 25 |
| 16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
| 22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
| 01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
| 08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
| 19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
| 10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
| 17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.06 | 215 | 2.96% | 30 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 203 | 209.15 | 215 | 3.11% | 30 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.33 | 215 | 3.33% | 30 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.86 | 216 | 4.47% | 30 |
And in the Senate...
This week saw the race in Nevada tighten up as Sharron Angle is now tied with Harry Reid, and Ohio and Pennsylvania made big gains for the GOP.
Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
| Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
| 24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
| 31-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.18 | 50 | 1.29% | 7 |
| 07-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.13 | 50 | 1.46% | 7 |
| 14-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.46 | 50 | 2.92% | 7 |
| 21-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.69 | 50 | 3.05% | 7 |
I have to go now. I'll run the poll-based House analysis later.
-PJ
I hope that you are right, and so does U.S. Senate hopeful Dino Rossi from Washington state, among all other non-leftists.
>>Voter fraud will become an art form.Bet on it.<<
We all know it is going to happen. The question is what are We, the people going to do about it. This is something Tea Party activists can do - monitor the polling places, inside and out, for voter intimidation; act as challengers; watch out for duplicate voting; etc. An army of lawyers should be amassing TODAY to challenge every single race where fraud is suspected.
Failing all that and the RATs steal another election, then it will be up to an army of We, the people to correct it.
Wow, you two!
Thank you.
Thanks for the ping!
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