Is Android unstoppable?

Unwired ^ | 03 Aug 10 | Vlad Bobleanta

[SmokingJoe]

What the numbers say

Android’s market share grew by an amazing 886% in the second quarter of 2010 compared to the second quarter of 2009. And as exciting as that sounds, it was pretty much to be expected. Back in Q2 2009 Android had 2.8% of the smartphone market. You can only go up from such a measly number, basically.

This time last year, Android was on just over a million of the handsets sold. And almost all of those sales were made up by the HTC Dream/G1. Android 1.5 was released during that second quarter of 2009, but by the end of June only two devices were running the new OS version, the Samsung i7500 Galaxy and the HTC Magic. Arguably, neither Android 1.0 nor Android 1.5 were anything close to final, stable versions of the OS despite their numbering. It was only with 1.6 that came out in September last year, when the OS started to look good enough for mass adoption, and that’s when many new devices started to show up, and Android’s growth rate started surging.

Today, Android is only 0.9% away from RIM’s BlackBerry OS, and if the current trends continue, will overtake it in Q3. Which is not a small achievement by any standard. RIM’s OS was holding that second position since Windows Mobile started to go down a long, long time ago (in mobile device years, anyway).

We’ve clearly not seen the peak of the Android platform yet. How much it can still grow from this point on is anybody’s guess, but it has absolutely grown up this year. My guess is that it won’t peak in 2010.

[SmokingJoe]

Joe, that is not a detailed report

That is all the detailed report I need. We are talking about total smartphone sales and whether companies mention smartphoine sales in their earnings reports or not, remember? This was in relation to whether Chinese companies mention the number of smartphones they have sold in their earnings reports or not. Before that, you claimed that China doesn't tell anyone how many smartphones they sell in that country. I pointed out to you that the big Chinese cell phone companies are traded on American exchanges, and give out about as much information about their smartphone sales as anyone else, and therefore its easy enough for firms like Canalys to work out how many smartphone are being sold in China.
What did you think we are talking about?

[antiRepublicrat]

Say tell me...exactly how much sales has Dell ever had in cell phones of any kind? What about Intel? How much sales have Intel chips ever had in the smartphone business?

I'm not sure about Dell, but Intel provides graphics tech for many cell phones, and will come out with a large line of cell phone platforms next year. So what do you say about the combined power of these companies in the phone industry?

• China Mobile
• Broadcom
• Qualcomm
• Synaptics
• TI
• LG
• Motorola
• HTC
• Samsung
• Vodafone (Verizon)
• Sony Ericsson
• Toshiba
• ARM
• Marvell
• nVidia

And before we forget, two years ago, didn't Nokia control close to 50% of all cell phones(and way over 50% of smartphones) sold on the planet?

So true. Also true is that Android consortium companies provide the parts that go into Nokia phones. For example, the N900 runs on a TI chip. RIM uses Qualcomm and Marvell. Apple uses Samsung. They all use ARM. Samsung probably makes all of their OLED screens, and odds are that one of the Android companies makes their flash memory.

Two years ago, no one even believed such a thing was possible

Only people who were absolutely clueless. Much of the big muscle in the phone industry banded together as the Open Handset Alliance before the first Android phone even shipped. Shortly after they got even more heavies on board. Android only had to not totally suck in order to be a big success.

[Swordmaker]

you did
From post # 59:
“Nokia is by far the world's largest smartphone maker, yet has very little of the US smartphone market. How? Because the US isn't the biggest market”

Not me. I suggest you look again at who posted that... and then apologize.

However, the market is NOT how much you take of it. The market is what it is. Just because you somehow have not figured out how to tap that market does not increase or diminish its size. The market exists. . . and to say that the US market is larger is actually false.

The exploited smartphone share of the smaller US market is currently larger than the exploited smartphone share of the far larger Chinese market is true.

That will rapidly change. Based on PugetSoundSoldier's comments about the grey and black market in Shanghai, and I have little reason to doubt them, it may be truer to state that the currently estimated relative market shares are as described. . . but may actually be in equilibrium or skewed toward China being larger because of the knock off smart phones from the uncounted counterfeits that are apparently ubiquitous everywhere in China.

[SmokingJoe]

I'm not sure about Dell,

Chortle!
Reality: Dell has accounted for close to ZERO percent market share in smartphones for as long as I can remember.

but Intel provides graphics tech for many cell phones, and will come out with a large line of cell phone platforms next year.

Which cell phone companies are those?
And how many cell phones do these firms that use Intel graphics cards to, sell?
And how many of their cell phones sport Intel graphics chips?
Remember, we are talking about from 2 years ago to the present, when Android came from zero market share to come and dominate Apple, then you turned round and mentioned the power of Dell and Intel in helping Android grab market share. So again, I ask ya, exactly how relevant have Dell and Intel been in the cell phone market in the last 2 years?

[SmokingJoe]

However, the market is NOT how much you take of it. The market is what it is. Just because you somehow have not figured out how to tap that market does not increase or diminish its size. The market exists. . . and to say that the US market is larger is actually false.

Huh?
Are you back to your Orwellian doublespeak gobbledygook crap again?

Reality:
The US IS the largest smartphone market on the planet, far outpacing the Chinese smartphone market, which is the second biggest smartphone market on the planet.
Canalys:
“The United States smart phone market grew 41% year on year. It is the largest smart phone market in the world by a significant margin, with 14.7 million units accounting for 23% of global shipments in Q2 2010. Android devices collectively represented a 34% share of the US market in the quarter, and with growth of 851% Android became the largest smart phone platform in the country.”
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2010/r2010081.html
FACTS are FACTS.

[SmokingJoe]

So what do you say about the combined power of these companies in the phone industry?

I say, Window Mobile and plenty of mobile versions of Linux had the “power” of most of them companies FOR YEARS, and they went nowhere. If that is all it took, other versions of Linux and Windows Mobile would be dominating by now

[Swordmaker]

That is all the detailed report I need. We are talking about total smartphone sales and whether companies mention smartphoine sales in their earnings reports or not, remember? This was in relation to whether Chinese companies mention the number of smartphones they have sold in their earnings reports or not. Before that, you claimed that China doesn't tell anyone how many smartphones they sell in that country. I pointed out to you that the big Chinese cell phone companies are traded on American exchanges, and give out about as much information about their smartphone sales as anyone else, and therefore its easy enough for firms like Canalys to work out how many smartphone are being sold in China. What did you think we are talking about?

So you quote a generalized report, lacking any detail at all, from an American company computer and consumer electronic product manufacturing company that makes smartphones as if that were somehow probative of anything at all about a Chinese cell phone service providing company. It isn't. This is your problem. You read into something things that are NOT THERE!

You're assuming the Chinese cellular market model is like the American model where carriers sell the majority of the phones. It isn't. In China, most cellular phones are sold without contracts on the open market by vendors to individuals who then buy their service from a service provider. From what I've read, no phones are sold subsidized in China.

A service provider may or may not sell the majority of the phones on its network... but with the large number of outlets (many multi-story malls in the 300,000 square feet range with hundreds of vendors DEDICATED to just selling cell phones) I can't help but believe that most users buy outside and just find the best carrier deal for their GSM phone by whatever maker they find the best phone price they find. The competition is fierce!

[SmokingJoe]

Only people who were absolutely clueless

Yeah?
Show me even one article or even one analyst that had Android overtaking Apple and RIM, which was written back in 2008, when Android had close to zero market share.

[SmokingJoe]

So you quote a generalized report, lacking any detail at all

Nope.
I quoted a specific report, which details a specific market share figure for US smartphones as well as specific smartphone sales figures for the US, from one of the most reputable smartphone analysts in the business.
Again, from Canalys:
““The United States smart phone market grew 41% year on year. It is the largest smart phone market in the world by a significant margin, with 14.7 million units accounting for 23% of global shipments in Q2 2010. Android devices collectively represented a 34% share of the US market in the quarter, and with growth of 851% Android became the largest smart phone platform in the country.”
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2010/r2010081.html

It couldn't be clearer. The United States is the # 1 smartphone country on the planet, as far as sales figures are concerned(which is exactly what we are talking about here).

[SmokingJoe]

You're assuming the Chinese cellular market model is like the American model where carriers sell the majority of the phones

I am assuming nothing of the kind, and more importantly, neither is Canalys. They have been tallying worldwide smartphone market share figures for as long(if not longer) as anyone else. I would suggest they know a heck of a lot more about what they are talking about than you do.

[antiRepublicrat]

So again, I ask ya, exactly how relevant have Dell and Intel been in the cell phone market in the last 2 years?

You of course try to misdirect using two of the members. So again, I ask ya exactly how relevant have the following companies been in the cell phone market in the last 2 years?

• China Mobile
• Broadcom
• Qualcomm
• Synaptics
• TI
• LG
• Motorola
• HTC
• Samsung
• Vodafone (Verizon)
• Sony Ericsson
• Toshiba
• ARM
• Marvell
• nVidia

I'll tell you. At least one of them, and probably more than one, has something to do with every single smart phone on the market for the last two years. For just the carriers, Android consortium members account for the majority of cell phone customers in the world, over 1.5 billion.

[antiRepublicrat]

I say, Window Mobile and plenty of mobile versions of Linux had the “power” of most of them companies FOR YEARS

Nope. Microsoft had a few manufacturers on board. That's all. Some independently played with mobile Linux, but those have mostly been supplanted by the Android consortium.

[PugetSoundSoldier]

But what I don’t understand is this. Since Android is free to manufacturers, how does Google capitalize on it? How does Android help Google?

The same way they do with their search engine. Ads and data mining.

[SmokingJoe]

You of course try to misdirect using two of the members

No misdirect. Your word, not mine.
You started your post by mentioning those two companies(even before any of the others), and claiming they helped Android to quickly overtake Apple and Rim in just two short years, so of course I asked ya, exactly what market share have these two firms ever had in the cell phone business?
You turned round and gave me non answers so of course I repeated the question again. Exactly how did Dell and Intel help Android to grab such a big market share and overtake Apple's iPhone in such a short period of time?

[antiRepublicrat]

Google confident Android will beat iPhones. Google knows what it has.

Handset OS market shares shifting predicts open source (Android, Symbian) will win out over Apple and RIM.

Nokia, Motorola Dominate China's Smartphone Market predicts Android will overtake even Symbian (by default that means Apple and RIM, which both have lower marketshare than Symbian). Note the world's largest carrier is mentioned as being behind Android.

[SmokingJoe]

“Nope. Microsoft had a few manufacturers on board”

ROFL!
Going by your list,
“China Mobile
Broadcom
Qualcomm
Synaptics
TI
LG
Motorola
HTC
Samsung
Vodafone (Verizon)
Sony Ericsson
Toshiba
ARM
Marvell
nVidia “

every single one of them firms had Windows Mobile or some form of mobile Linux on smartphones going in one way or the other.
Again, I ask ya, if simply having these firms on board is all that it took, how come the other versions of Mobile Linux and Windows Mobile couldn't take the world by storm like Android has?

[PugetSoundSoldier]

Apple, the first modern such phone,

BZZT. WRONG. Look at the HTC TyTN, or the Motorola A1000, or the Qtek S100. All have all of the features of the iPhone, and predated the iPhone by years. Apple may have made it look pretty to some, but the "first modern such phone" predated the iPhone by several years.

But, being a closed system, like Mac, there is no viruses, no spy-ware, no bad apps to worry about.

BZZT. WRONG. The iOS (meaning iPhone, iPad, iPod devices) have a HUGE security hole where you can ROOT the device by just visiting a website. The entire device is compromised by visiting a malicious website - you can lose everything, have everything copied.

You even knew about this gaping monstrosity of a security hole and still come here peddling your lies about security!

All cell phones have issues when you hold them certain ways which can increase the risk of dropped calls. Apple seems to be worse at dropping calls. It may or may not be due to design issues or the ATT network. The debate continues.

BZZT. WRONG AGAIN. Third strike, you're clearly out of your league here... Even Apple confirmed it's from the design by their offering of rubber bumpers to solve the problem. It's not the fact your hand covers the antenna; it's the fact your hand can TOUCH the bare antenna metal. It's been independently proven by Consumer Reports, Ars Technical, PAConsultants, and many more. BAD DESIGN, not "network issues".

Go spread your lies and FUD somewhere else...

[SmokingJoe]

Google confident Android will beat iPhones. Google knows what it has.

That's from Google. Everyone predicts they will win. Even so, not even Google said they'd be clobbering the iPhone as quickly as 2010.

“Handset OS market shares shifting predicts open source (Android, Symbian) will win out over Apple and RIM.”

Umm..that article mentions 2012, not 2010. I asked you to show me anyone who predicted that Android would be ahead of RIM and Apple as early as 2010, way back in 2008.

[PugetSoundSoldier]

My HTC Touch Pro2 goes 3-4 days between charges, using it as a phone, calendar/task/appointment manager, and some light 3G browsing (mainly Google maps when roaming unfamiliar territory in Shanghai or Xiamen).

What sucks batteries down is WIFI and GPS. Keep those turned off (or use them sparingly) and you’ll get multi-day battery life. But it kills all cell phones because of the way the wireless standards were set up. WIFI is a high power connection by design, and GPS requires high gain and power reception for location. You will not get low power versions of those features, by design.

[PugetSoundSoldier]

That gives ya a massive 14.4 million Android's sold per quarter, easily trumping iPhone sales. And that is just for starters.

And if you REALLY want to talk volume, Nokia sells about 45 million phones EACH MONTH. Or about 135 million per quarter.

Samsung is up pretty high, too, doing about 23 million a month (70 million a quarter).

In smartphones, it's Nokia first, then RIM, then Apple, closely followed by HTC. If you do it by OS, it's Symbian, Blackberry, Android, then iOS.

Apple's never been a sales leader for smartphones, ever. Even inside the US. Runs counter to their claims and what their more fervent believes love to trumpet, but the truth is - while they sell a lot of phones - many others sell a LOT more...