Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Key House Races 2010 - 2 July 2010 Update
KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 2 July 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 07/03/2010 9:53:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

It's clearly half-time in the Primary Season and a Holiday Weekend to boot so we have naturally had a slow news week for the House Races. But we can report that Election Projection still sees a movement in the Dems favor that seems to be escaping the rest of the civilized world who see quite the opposite. As a result, our Index has been sent just a bit in the wrong direction - from last weeks -.353 to this weeks -.357. That's not much but it is due entirely to changes that Election Projection made in a few of the Key House Races.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

  • There were a total of 5  updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
  • 2 were favorable to the Republicans
  • 3 were favorable to the Democrats

Note that you can always see the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

We report, you decide.

Worth Noting: The runnoff election between Martha Roby and Rick Barber for the Republican nomination for Alabama's 2nd District will be held on July 13th, a week from next Tuesday. You folks in that district need to get out and vote for your favorite.

A week later on Tuesday July 20th Georgia will be holding their primary. We have Georgia's District 8 on our Key House Races list so we will be watching that one for sure.

We've updated our Master LIst of Key House Races to indicate the Georgia Primary as well as those in early August using our color coding scheme where LIGHT YELLOW indicates upcoming primaries and LIGHT GREEN indicates primaries that have been completed.

Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:

August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Conecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Lousiana

 

 

District Dem Primary Winner R-Seats Republican Incumbent or Challengers ALL Primary Experts District
Or Incumbent Main Challenger Challenger Challenger
AL 2 Bobby Bright Martha Roby Rick Barber Runoff 7/13 AL 1-Jun Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Chad Causey Rick Crawford AR 18-May Toss-Up AR 1
AR 2 Joyce Elliott Tim Griffin AR 18-May Leans R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Rusty Bowers Bradley Beauchamp Paul Gosar AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell David Schweikert Susan Bitter Smith Dr. Chris Salvino AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 5
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Jonathan Paton Jesse Kelly Brian Miller AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 8
CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent Dan Lungren CA 8-Jun Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney David Harmer CA 8-Jun Leans D CA 11
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Van Tran CA 8-Jun Likely D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Scott Tipton Bob McConnell CO 10-Aug Leans D CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Cory Gardner Tom Lucero Dean Madere CO 10-Aug Toss-Up CO 4
CT 4 Jim Himes Dan Debicella Rick Torres CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Sam Caligiuri Justin Bernier Mark Greenberg CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 5
DE AL Dem Primary Open R Michele Rollins Rose Izzo DE 14-Sep Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Eddie Hendry David Scholl Steve Southerland FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Daniel Webster Kurt Kelly Bruce O’Donoghue FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 8
FL 12 Dem Primary Open R Dennis Ross Randy Wilkinson John Lindsey Jr. FL 24-Aug Likely R FL 12
FL 22 Ron Klein Allen West FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Sandy Adams Karen Deibel Craig Miller FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 24
FL 25 Dem Primary Open R David Rivera Paul Crespo Marili Cancio (I) FL 24-Aug Leans R FL 25
GA 8 Jim Marshall Austin Scott Paul Rish Angela Hicks GA 20-Jul Likely D GA 8
HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent Charles Djou HI 18-Sep Toss-Up HI 1
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Brad Zaun IA 8-Jun Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Raul Labrador ID 25-May Toss-Up ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Joe Walsh IL 2-Feb Likely D IL 8
IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Adam Kinzinger IL 2-Feb Leans D IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Randy Hultgren IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 14
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Jackie Walorski IN 4-May Leans D IN 2
IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Dr. Larry Bucshon IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Todd Young IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 9
KS 3 Open D (Moore) Kevin Yoder Patricia Lightner KS 3-Aug Toss-Up KS 3
LA 2 Dem Primary Incumbent Joseph Cao LA 28-Aug Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D (Melancon) Hunt Downer Jeff Landry Kristian Magar LA 28-Aug Leans R LA 3
MA 10 Open D (Delahunt) Jeff Perry Joe Malone Ray Kasperowicz MA 14-Sep Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Andy Harris Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio Jeff Ghrist MD 14-Sep Leans R MD 1
MI 1 Open D (Stupak) Dr. Daniel Benishek Tom Stillings Jason Allen MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Tim Walberg Brian Rooney Marvin Carlson MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters "Rocky" Raczowski Paul Welday Anna Janek MI 3-Aug Likely D MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Randy Demmer Jim Hagedom MN 14-Sep Likely D MN 1
MN 6 Dem Primary Incumbent Michele Bachmann MN 10-Aug Likely R MN 6
MO 4 Ike Skelton Bill Stouffer Vicky Hartzler Art Madden MO 3-Aug Leans D MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Alan Nunnelee MS 1-Jun Toss-Up MS 1
NC 8 Larry Kissell Harold Johnson NC 4-May Leans D NC 8
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Rick Berg ND 8-Jun Toss-Up ND AL
NE 2 Tom White Incumbent Lee Terry NE 11-May Likely R NE 2
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Frank Guinta Rich Ashooh Bob Bestani NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 1
NH 2 Open D (Paul Hodes) Jennifer Horn Charlie Bass Bob Giuda NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Jon Runyan NJ 8-Jun Leans D NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Jon Barela NM 1-Jun Leans D NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Steve Pearce NM 1-Jun Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Dr. Joe Heck NV 8-Jun Toss-Up NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Randy Altschuler George Demos Chris Cox NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Mike Grimm Michael Allegretti NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Nan Hayworth Thomas DeChiaro NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Chris Gibson NY 14-Sep Likely D NY 20
NY 23 Bill Owens Doug Hoffman Matt Doheny NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Richard Hanna NY 14-Sep Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Ann Marie Buerkle NY 14-Sep Likely D NY 25
NY 29 Open D (Massa) Tom Reed Angelo Campini George Winner NY 14-Sep Leans R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Steve Chabot OH 4-May Leans R OH 1
OH 2 Surya Yalamanchili Incumbent Jean Schmidt OH 4-May Safe R OH 2
OH 13 Betty Sutton Tom Ganley OH 4-May Leans D OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Steve Stivers OH 4-May Leans R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Jim Renacci OH 4-May Leans D OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Bob Gibbs OH 4-May Leans D OH 18
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Mike Kelly PA 18-May Leans D PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Keith Rothfus PA 18-May Leans D PA 4
PA 6 Manan Trivedi Incumbent Jim Gerlach PA 18-May Likely R PA 6
PA 7 Bryan Lentz Pat Meehan PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Mike Fitzpatrick PA 18-May Leans D PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Tom Marino PA 18-May Leans D PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Lou Barletta PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Timothy Burns PA 18-May Leans D PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden David Argall PA 18-May Likely D PA 17
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Mick Mulvaney SC 8-Jun Leans D SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Kristi Noem SD 8-Jun Toss-Up SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Jack Bailey Dr. Scott Desjarlais Kent Greenough TN 5-Aug Likely D TN 4
TN 6 Open D (Gordon) Jim Tracy Diane Black Lou Ann Zelenik TN 5-Aug Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D (Tanner) Stephen Fincher George Finn TN 5-Aug Toss-Up TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Bill Flores TX 13-Apr Toss-Up TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Francisco "Quico" Canseco TX 13-Apr Likely D TX 23
VA 2 Glenn Nye Scott Rigell VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Robert Hurt VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Morgan Griffith VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connelly Keith Fimian VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 11
WA 3 Open D (Baird) Jaime Herrera David Castillo David Hedrick WA 17-Aug Toss-Up WA 3
WA 8 Dem Primary Incumbent Dave Reichert WA 17-Aug Leans R WA 8
WI 7 Open D (Obey) Sean Duffy Dan Mielke WI 14-Sep Toss-Up WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Terri McCormick Roger Roth Marc Savard WI 14-Sep Leans D WI 8
WV 1 Mike Oliverio David B. McKinley WV 11-May Toss-Up WV 1
Code Color Code Indicates
New Entry or Major Change Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List -0.357
Upcoming Primary or Runoff
Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary
Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat
Open Dem Seat
Updated 3-Jul-10
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: election2010; elections; keyhouseraces; khr
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-33 last
To: Paleo Conservative
Is he any relation to Frances "Sissy" Farenthold of Texas who almost became George McGovern's VP Candidate in 1972? A guy with a gringo surname running against a Hispanic in Corpus Christi will be an uphill battle; don't ya think?
21 posted on 07/03/2010 9:29:46 PM PDT by no dems (Palin/Jindal in 2012 or Jindal/Christie in 2012. Either is fine with me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

Thanks for the ping. I appreciate it.


22 posted on 07/03/2010 9:35:25 PM PDT by Uncle Ivan (Alea iacta est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: no dems
Is he any relation to Frances "Sissy" Farenthold of Texas who almost became George McGovern's VP Candidate in 1972? A guy with a gringo surname running against a Hispanic in Corpus Christi will be an uphill battle; don't ya think?

"Sissy" Farenthold is his step-grandmother. His father Randy Farenthold was murdered in 1972 and his body was dumped in Corpus Christi Bay with his feet encased in concrete.

Nueces County has been trending Republican in recent election cycles. Congressman Solomon Ortiz is getting very unpopular in Nueces County, because the Ortiz family has gotten very heavy handed in running the county for their benefit and their friends in Robstown to the detriment of tax payers of the county as a whole. Congressman Ortiz' brother Oscar is on the Nueces County Commission. Prior to January 2009, he ran the County Commission with even though the County Judge is officially the head of the commission. Congressman Ortiz threatened to take away millions of dollars from the City of Ingleside in 2009 when the Republican majority removed Oscar Ortiz from the base closing commission. Congressman Ortiz refuses to meet with his constituents, and even refuses to appear on TV in his home media market.

If the 27th district were centered on Corpus Christi, Ortiz would lose. He still has strength in the Rio Grande Valley, but Farenthold is working diligently to pry voters away from the Democrats in Cameron and Willacy counties.

23 posted on 07/03/2010 10:28:02 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

Please also remove me from this SPAM list.

I never asked to be on it.


24 posted on 07/03/2010 10:34:20 PM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Paleo Conservative

Well, it’s an off-year election and Obama is not on the ballot. Maybe there will not be much interest and the people who are really “fired-up” will get out and vote out the slime bucket.


25 posted on 07/03/2010 11:00:03 PM PDT by no dems (Palin/Jindal in 2012 or Jindal/Christie in 2012. Either is fine with me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: no dems
Well, it’s an off-year election and Obama is not on the ballot. Maybe there will not be much interest and the people who are really “fired-up” will get out and vote out the slime bucket.

There were about 181,000 votes cast for Congress in district 27 in 2008 when Obama was elected. There were just 109,000 votes cast in 2006. What's interesting is that on the same night in 2006 when the DemocRATS took over the US House and US Senate, and Republicans lost control of the courthouses in Dallas and Harris counties, Nueces county elected its first Republican County Judge and Sheriff since Reconstruction.

In 2008, Republicans gained control of the county commission for the first time ever when Mike Pusley beat the incumbent, Peggy Bañales by 179 votes, 10,224 to 10,045. The control of the Texas House was also determined in a House race in a district partially contained in Nueces county. Former Texas House Repersentative Todd Hunter (late 1980's - early 1990's) beat first term incumbent Juan Garcia (Harvard Law classmate of Barack Obama, Navy pilot, and now Secretary of the Navy) in the most expensive Texas House race in history. That race made the partisan balance 176-174 in favor of Republicans. Had Hunter not won, the Texas House would have been tied, and the DemocRATS would have insisted on having a DemocRAT speaker.

In 2010, Nueces county has 4 Hispanic Republican candidates on the ballot, while there are just 7 in the rest of the state. We're hoping to pick up another county commissioner position and a state judgeship district. We picked up a Republican Hispanic District Attorney and Justice of the Peace due to a retirement and a resignation to run for a different office. The Republican controlled county commission had the opportunity to put Republicans in both those positions that opened up in the last year, and we hope to retain those positions in the election in November.

26 posted on 07/04/2010 12:55:14 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint; grellis; AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; blueyon; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; ...

Thanks InterceptPoint.

Maybe one topic per state a sort of under-one-roof approach would be a good idea as well?


27 posted on 07/04/2010 7:58:31 AM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Springman; sergeantdave; cyclotic; netmilsmom; RatsDawg; PGalt; FreedomHammer; queenkathy; ...
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.

Happy Independence Day, Michiganders!

The August 3 Primary is coming up fast. Even if you are not in one of the listed key districts, get out there and vote. And after your ballot is cast, wish me a happy birthday.

28 posted on 07/04/2010 8:43:24 AM PDT by grellis (I am Jill's overwhelming sense of disgust.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: grellis

May GOD bless you Grellis. And have a blessed 4th. OH, and GOD Bless America! Hoo Rah!


29 posted on 07/04/2010 9:57:25 AM PDT by 70th Division (I love my country but fear my government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: SunkenCiv
Maybe one topic per state a sort of under-one-roof approach would be a good idea as well?

Try THIS. You can reach this page on KeyHouseRaces.com by clicking on the very top SPOTLIGHT ON menu.

30 posted on 07/04/2010 10:58:51 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: grellis

Re: Michigan - 13: What are the chances that any of Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick’s opponents (John W. Broad, Vincent T. Brown, Hansen Clarke, Stephen Hume or Glenn Plummer) will defeat her in the August 3rd Primary? Who, of the 5, do you think is her strongest Primary opponent?


31 posted on 07/04/2010 4:18:46 PM PDT by no dems (Palin/Jindal in 2012 or Jindal/Christie in 2012. Either is fine with me.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint

Count me IN. Regards,


32 posted on 07/04/2010 7:32:48 PM PDT by 23 Everest (Zero, Glittering Jewel of Colossal Ignorance. Day 73)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: InterceptPoint
Please also remove me from this SPAM list.

I never asked to be on it.

33 posted on 07/05/2010 8:21:45 AM PDT by Dr. Thorne (Buy Gold and Guns Now!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-33 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson