Posted on 06/26/2010 1:42:55 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
We've updated the Master List to reflect a few changes in the candidates running in the Republican primaries in New York. We've also updated NC-08 following Tuesday's runnoff where Harold Johnson emerged as the Republican nominee. There were fewer changes than last week in the ratings by our "Experts" and , due to some strange updates by Election Projection, the Dems had a better week than normal. But the Republicans still made a small net gain in our "Index" which moved from last weeks -.357 to this weeks -.353. A small change but in the right direction.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Note that you can always see the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page. Take a look and judge for yourself whether Election Projection went off the deep end this week.
| District | Dem Primary Winner | R-Seats | Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||
| AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Martha Roby | Rick Barber | Runoff 7/13 | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
| AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | ||||
| AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | Leans R | AR | 2 | ||||
| AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | |||
| CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | ||||
| CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | ||||
| CO | 3 | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | |||
| CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Toss-Up | CO | 4 | ||
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Dan Debicella | Rick Torres | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | |||
| CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | Mark Greenberg | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
| FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 2 | ||
| FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | ||
| FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | |
| FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 22 | ||||
| FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | ||
| FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 25 | |
| GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Austin Scott | Paul Rish | Angela Hicks | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | ||
| HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | |||
| IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||||
| ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | ||||
| IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||||
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | |||
| IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Leans D | IL | 11 | ||||
| IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | ||||
| IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Leans D | IN | 2 | ||||
| IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | ||||
| IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | ||||
| KS | 3 | Open D (Moore) | Patricia Lightner | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | KS | 3 | |||
| LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | |||
| LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Leans R | LA | 3 | ||
| MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | MD | 1 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D (Stupak) | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Jason Allen | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | ||
| MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Marvin Carlson | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Paul Welday | Anna Janek | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Jim Hagedom | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | |||
| MN | 6 | Dem Primary | Incumbent | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | |||
| MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Bill Stouffer | Vicky Hartzler | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||||
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Leans D | NC | 8 | ||||
| ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | ||||
| NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | |||
| NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | Rich Ashooh | Bob Bestani | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | ||
| NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | John Adler | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | ||||
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | Leans D | NM | 1 | ||||
| NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||||
| NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | ||||
| NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | |||
| NY | 19 | John Hall | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | |||
| NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 20 | ||||
| NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | |||
| NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | ||||
| NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | ||||
| NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||||
| OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Safe R | OH | 2 | |||
| OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | ||||
| OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | ||||
| OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 16 | ||||
| OH | 18 | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | ||||
| PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 3 | ||||
| PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 4 | ||||
| PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | |||
| PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||||
| PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | ||||
| PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | ||||
| PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | ||||
| PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 12 | ||||
| PA | 17 | Tim Holden | David Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||||
| SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | Leans D | SC | 5 | ||||
| SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | Leans D | SD | AL | ||||
| TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | ||
| TN | 6 | Open D (Gordon) | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | ||
| TN | 8 | Open D (Tanner) | Stephen Fincher | George Finn | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | |||
| TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | ||||
| TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | ||||
| VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | ||||
| VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | ||||
| VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | ||||
| VA | 11 | Gerald Connelly | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||||
| WA | 3 | Open D (Baird) | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Dem Primary | Incumbent | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | |||
| WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | |||
| WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | ||||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List | -0.353 | ||||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||
| Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary | ||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||
| Open Dem Seat | ||||||||||||
| Updated | 26-Jun-10 | |||||||||||
| Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | |||||||||||
| From | To | |||||||||||
| Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | ||||||||||
| Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||||
| Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||||
| Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||
| Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||
| Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||||||||||
| Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | ||||||||||
| Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 | ||||||||||
BTTT
Please remove me from this list - thanks!
ping
Thank you for the ping!
What are your predictions? I think that Republicans will gain 25 seats, in the House, and four seats, in the Senate.
What are your predictions? I think that Republicans will gain 25 seats, in the House, and four seats, in the Senate.
Lightner is endorsed by Huckabee as the Christian candidate.
I don't know about Huckabee but I know she claims that Jack Cashill and Fred Thompson have endorsed her or support her.
FWIW I think they could do considerably better than that.
thanks InterceptPoint
interesting times and this is good info
valuable ping
Larry Sabato currently has the Repubs winning up to 39 seats in the House, 1 short of a majority and it’s only June.
Thank you. I would like to be on this ping list.
Please put me on this list...I live in FL, not Grayson’s district but I want him to be history, living home with his mom and drooling in his cup, THIS YEAR.
We’ll add you to the ping list.
Re: Post 54 - on the list.
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