Posted on 05/26/2010 1:49:19 PM PDT by Positive
I have been monitoring the live feed of the "Top Kill" apparatus from BP.com and after about three hours there is a definite change of events down there.
For the first couple of hours we could see several views of a very complex device rocking around in clear water.
Now there is gushing of what I presume is the "mud" plumeing.
We may get some incite as to progress soon.
roger that . I was just going for the kill— not a frac. But we need that oil if they can tame it. Tremendous physics and chemistry at play here. I am optimistic about this heavy mud and cement. It sure is flowing nicely. BP says 24 hours should tell us. If government didn’t force this drilling so far out and allowed it on land like Anwar. This thing would never have even been known. But they government wants oil so people don’t riot but they shove the exploration out in the Gulf. This is what the environmentalists get.
A question - Once they can start pumping, how fast does the cement cure? How long before fully cured?
a picture is worth a thousand words....thanxx for this...
Have you an idea as to the pipe diameter or any estimates of the size of the holes in it?
LOL...coming from a Navy guy...you sure DO, if it gets hot enough...when I was on the carriers, I contemplated more than once what it would be like to have to leap that 90 feet to the water under duress...
My very limited understanding of the situation agrees with your more expert one. There are a couple of POSSIBLE complicating factors:
1. The flow MAY be from the annulus (outside the casing).
AND,
2. If it IS then it MAY be flowing through the “Casing Hanger Packoff.”
3. IF this is true, it will be very difficult to “flow” mud or cement back down that “Packoff,” because ot held positive pressure in testing (it tested poorly under negative pressure).
4. If the mud goes past the leak (under the assumption that the leak is through the casing hanger packoff) it will go down the casing.
5. I believe the casing has a mechanical plug near the bottom. If so, and if the pressure of the mud pushes it out, that COULD add to the flow/pressure from the annulus.
That is a lot of POSSIBLES, and MAYBEs, and I hope they can cope with them if they should happen.
DG
Can someone explain what the structure is that the stream is coming out of? ie the white area?
Thanks.
Watched the status report from the BP exec and Admiral Landry of the CG. Currentky, the operation is going as planned and they said that we could expect to see fluctuations in the color and flow rate coming from the leak. They will know within the next 24 hours if the operation has been successful. They gave a good update, including the data analysis that had to be completed before the decision to begin pumping. They established criteria that had to be met before beginning. Analysis took a long time which is a source of frustration but cannot be down with gathering samples for analysis, they have to rely on instruments at the source. I believe they have the best resources being applied, this is a herculean engineering and scientific task going on. They have contingency plans ready to move with a smaller type of cap in place, the equipment is already positioned on the sea floor and ready to move to the next option should the topkill be unsuccessful. I’ve been involved in failure analyses, cause and corrective action development in an unrelated industry. They are doing all that they can, I saw nothing in the report that didn’t give me confidence in their approach, we have to keep hoping that the odds for success of the topkill fix go in their favor. worst case scenario is that no alternative works except the drilling of the relief wells already in process. And that would mean another 60 days or more of oil flow until they are completed and functioning. I wish them all well. Ready and willing to do whatever it takes when it the public is called upon for help in cleanup or other relief efforts. My prayers for all working on this night and day.
Thanks for the thread....It's the content about the problem that is important. Most freepers are smart enough to figure out the intent of non-perfect posts...Ignore the perfectionists.
Your “very limited” understanding is right on my FRiend! There are a great many things that could still go wrong with this.
The flow very likely IS behind the pipe (outside the casing) but IS entering the well at some point (very likely through a liner lap). If that point is far enough down it doesn’t matter but if it isn’t that is really bad news!
Secondly, they must be careful in pumping so as to not overpressure and fracture the formation as that would also be very bad.
And thirdly, Even if the current operation is completely successful the relief wells will still have to be completed in order for this thing to be made safe.
Well hell, friand. Why the hail din't y'all say you was talkin Southeren?
Mah teefus ain't crooked, but somebody is.
I haven’t been watching...I am new to this concept...didn’t know the video was set up.
I'm actually embarrassed that I didn't get that right off ;-)
What odds do you give this attempt?
prayers up!!!
Can’t see a darn thing at the moment. Too much turbidity?
It’s really changed in the last 10 minutes, or has it been doing this disappearing act before - late to party, coloring with grandbabies
Mazey
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