Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This 4-03 UPDATE is a major revision to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. We have several new entries on the Master List which now includes a total of 91 Congressional Districts. In addition, we have added Real Clear Politics as our 5th "expert election evaluator".
We believe THIS LIST IS COMPLETE. It includes every District that one or more of our 5 "expert election evaluators" have placed in either the Toss-Up, Democrats rated as Leans-D or Republicans rated as Leans-R categories. But the list includes other Democrat seats that we believe are in play. And, if we are correct, any seat not on our list will not be a pickup for either the Republicans or Democrats in November. The great majority of these seats are either currently held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats previously held by a Democrat. There are a few open Republican seats on the list and also a few Republican seats that our "experts" believe are going be seriously contested by the Democrats.
We have evaluated ALL Master List contests and placed the leading and/or "Freeper Endorsed" candidate in Column 1 and the closest contenders in Column 2 and 3 in ranking order. We expect some of these choices to be challenged and it is certain that the choices will change as we progress through the election cycle. Note that in most cases we have chosen not to include candidates on this list that have not officially announced they are running. When new announcements are made our list of challengers will be reviewed and updated as necessary.
Other significant changes for this UPDATE include:
We have added CA-3, DE-AL, FL-25, GA-8, HI-1, LA-2, MN-1, MN-6, NE-2, NM-1, PA-6, WA-8 to our list of contested districts.
We have color coded the chart to highlight things of importance. The RED flag in column 1 is the way we will show additions to the list or major changes in the future. On today's chart the new entries to the list are highlighted.
We have added a LIGHT YELLOW highlight for those states where there is a near-term Primary or Run-Off election. Note that the Texas Run-Off Election will be on April 13th so it deserves special attention.
We have color coded in LIGHT BROWN the Republican Open Seats and the Republican Seats that are believed by our "expert election evaluators" to be at risk.
We have color coded in LIGHT GREEN Primaries that are completed and where no Run-Off election required. Illinois is currently the only state in that category.
I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in three files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1 in PDF format
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2 in PDF format
Color-Code-Chart in PDF format
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freeper support is more crucial in primaries than it is in NOV. Competitive primaries in targetted seats.
I've given your comment some more thought and I think you have a point. We currently have 91 districts on our list with maybe an average of 4 Republican candidates each. That's over 360 candidates. Between randita and myself we have looked at every one of the web pages of those candidates. That took a long time. What I found was that 99% of the candidates sound like Barry Goldwater in 1964. In fact a great number of them are RINOs or are leaning in that direction. You are not going to learn that fact from their websites. They are going to run as strong conservatives.
So...digging out the real conservatives from the phony conservatives is going to take some real work. We need to hear from the people who are close enough to the candidates running in the primaries to give us some guidance. Tough job finding that help. But I think that's what has to happen here if we are going refine our list in a meaningful way.
SC-1 is below our radar right now. Not even on our Tier 2 list of potential contenders. Who is the Freeper? Does he or any other Republican have a chance?
We don't see any opportunities but you may have better info than our "experts". Do you see any races in OR that might be competitive?
We have CT-2 on our Tier 2 list of possible competitive races. Right now all our "experts" rate it as SAFE-D. Do you think we really have a shot at it? And I take it you think we should have Novak in the first spot. OK. We'll do that for now. Stay in touch and let us know what's going on.
FL-2, MA-6 and FL-12 are on our Tier 2 list of possible contenders. At this point about all we have to go on is the ratings of the various races by the "experts". Looking over the list you generally see pretty good agreement between them. But we are looking at other sources and Freeper inputs for guidance. I suspect the troops on the ground are going to see opportunities before our "experts" do see stay in touch and let us know what you hear.
And I agree with you on FL-25. It is not going to last long on our list. We just put it up for everyone to see how the race looked.
Thanks for your very detailed input. We have NY13 on our list and the ratings of the race by the "experts" are, in fact, pretty favorable. So I will move Grimm to the front based on your strong recommendation. Please stay in touch and let us know what is going on and, in particular, how Grimm is doing.
Thanks, Rob.
>> Who is the Freeper?
Katherine Jenerette
>> Does he or any other Republican have a chance?
Not familiar with that district.
i live not far from the CT-4 race and follow it daily in the papers. It is not clear to me whether I will be supporting Herrmann or Debicella because Herrmann is an unknown quantity. It is possible that in the end, pro-family folks will support Debicella and Teapartyers will support Herrmann.
Primaries ... it would be unreasonable to expect that all freepers will be on the same page. Every primary has it’s own unique script playing out.
You left out Dan Boren in Oklahoma..
I can't disagree with that.
OK-2 looks to be very SAFE-D to us. Do you have any evidence that this race will really be in play?
I’m in his district also and echo your thoughts. Dan Lungren has been a great! It may be because the Dems have targeted him, along with 9 other Repub. Congressmen nationally, for defeat in their congressional districts this year......
Have you been listening to the Ads the Dems have been running on the local (KFBK 1530 AM) radio against Dan? The ads run during Rus Limbaugh’s time slot...The Dems are spending a lot of money to try and defeat him......
Dan has been a pain in their sides for the past couple of years, and they want him gone......
Which is just one more reason to support his re-election efforts.....
No.. but from looking at it.. I thought
that even the safe seats would be included.
Also.. Mary Fallin is vacating her Republican
seat to run for Governor. And I didn’t see
that mentioned either.
Regarding the candidate’s websites, another thing I noticed which is obviously target marketing toward the Tea Party Patriots, is the abundant use of patriotic images like waving flags, the Declaration or Constitution, men dressed in Revolutionary era garb and reference to “Founding Fathers.
Brother, I wish we had 1,000 more like you ...
THanks for the great report.
One of the best posts ever on FR cuz it will actually help effect change that will help America;
Thanks for all the time and work that you have put in ...
Let’s keep at them and get rid of every single D on the list ...
Thank you, InterceptPoint for your work on this list, and thank you EdReform for the heads up on this thread.
Thanks for the ping!
Question: Is the freeper-endorsed candidate the most conservative or the one most likely to win?
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