Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This 4-03 UPDATE is a major revision to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. We have several new entries on the Master List which now includes a total of 91 Congressional Districts. In addition, we have added Real Clear Politics as our 5th "expert election evaluator".
We believe THIS LIST IS COMPLETE. It includes every District that one or more of our 5 "expert election evaluators" have placed in either the Toss-Up, Democrats rated as Leans-D or Republicans rated as Leans-R categories. But the list includes other Democrat seats that we believe are in play. And, if we are correct, any seat not on our list will not be a pickup for either the Republicans or Democrats in November. The great majority of these seats are either currently held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats previously held by a Democrat. There are a few open Republican seats on the list and also a few Republican seats that our "experts" believe are going be seriously contested by the Democrats.
We have evaluated ALL Master List contests and placed the leading and/or "Freeper Endorsed" candidate in Column 1 and the closest contenders in Column 2 and 3 in ranking order. We expect some of these choices to be challenged and it is certain that the choices will change as we progress through the election cycle. Note that in most cases we have chosen not to include candidates on this list that have not officially announced they are running. When new announcements are made our list of challengers will be reviewed and updated as necessary.
Other significant changes for this UPDATE include:
We have added CA-3, DE-AL, FL-25, GA-8, HI-1, LA-2, MN-1, MN-6, NE-2, NM-1, PA-6, WA-8 to our list of contested districts.
We have color coded the chart to highlight things of importance. The RED flag in column 1 is the way we will show additions to the list or major changes in the future. On today's chart the new entries to the list are highlighted.
We have added a LIGHT YELLOW highlight for those states where there is a near-term Primary or Run-Off election. Note that the Texas Run-Off Election will be on April 13th so it deserves special attention.
We have color coded in LIGHT BROWN the Republican Open Seats and the Republican Seats that are believed by our "expert election evaluators" to be at risk.
We have color coded in LIGHT GREEN Primaries that are completed and where no Run-Off election required. Illinois is currently the only state in that category.
I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in three files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1 in PDF format
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2 in PDF format
Color-Code-Chart in PDF format
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Delaware is increasingly a one-party dictatorship. The problem is that the local ruling elite would rather lose an election than to put up a Conservative. The local PUBs have a deal in place - give Castle the Senate for two years, RATs get the House seat forever and Biden Jr gets Daddy’s seat in 2012 when Castle retires. BTW, Chris Coons is the RAT candidate. He’s currently New Castle County President. Isn’t it an ethics violation for him to use taxpayer money for TV ads in his current job, while running for another?
Christine O’Donnell is challenging Castle. Vote for her, please. RATs are doing a Palin job on her.
91 out of 219?
Thats all?
Every Democrat should be facing an uphill fight. The fact that only a tiny percentage of the House is “in play” is sad....
What’s your take on D1 S.C.? We have a Freeper contending there.
fine. but in most races there is not a COMPETITIVE PRIMARY. if the recommended candidate loses 75% to 25%, he was a waste. If he wins 75% to 25%, it’s not crucial to support him until the fall. And in open GOP seats, the primary is everything. (This can only be handled on a regional basis. too complex.)
NOTHING in OREGON???
What about Joe Courtney in Connecticut’s second?
My RTC wasn’t much interested in Matthew Daly who has been campaigning for that seat since at least last May when he was at a Tea Party in our town. Daria Novak has them enthused. Courtney won in 2008 in a landslide but I’m seeing a lot of opposition to him.
it’s great daria is running. Somebody could write a paragraph on each race. Impossible to fit that much info into an excel spread sheet.
i wonder if the “expert election evaluators” even know who daria is. Or Sam Caligiuri or Debicella, etc. weird system. where is RINO Charlie Bass NH ? He’s leading the race in the open Hodes seat, but he is a RINO. where does he belong on the chart? Too much to handle for Excel.
Nothing in OR on the Master List nor the 2nd tier list InterceptPoint is maintaining which includes seats that MAY come into play if a high profile challenger declares candidacy or something else dramatic comes into play-like the stupid comments just spat out by Rep. Hare of IL.
The 5 evaluators referenced on this list apparently rate the OR seats as either SAFE D or SAFE R at this point.
Thanks for the ping.
It would help if people like you and fieldmarshaldj would look over the creds of the candidates in upcoming primaries (May) and see what you think.
Freeper recommendations are lacking for many of the May primary candidates. Without on the ground, eyewitness accounts from the districts in question, it’s tough to make a judgement on whom people outside the district should push.
We hope in the coming days, with sider exposure of this list, more input will come.
Opinions requested, please, on the best GOP primary candidates for Congressional Districta AR 1 and AR 2 on this list. Thanks.
Habla no Espanola!
Thank you! All the hard work you’ve put into this is simply amazing!
AR (1) Rick Crawford has my support and a donation.
AR (2) Still talking to relatives re: Griffin or Wallace.
Strange thing in this State is, almost everyone you ask about their political philosopy, their response is actually in line with Conservatives, yet they insist they are a Democrat! Pretty much all ready to boot Dems this time though.
Please post your opinions on the best real deal conservatives in the competitive Indiana primary races listed on this chart. Thanks a lot.
Good catch-LOL.
Thanks for the ping!
I’ve been boosting Frank Giunta in NH-1 not because he’s the most attractive choice to the FR mainstream, but because he will chase Che-Porter back to Rochester where she belongs. Manchester is the big city in the district, he’s the popular ex-mayor of Manchester, he’s not a commie - to me, it’s a no-brainer.
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