Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This 4-03 UPDATE is a major revision to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. We have several new entries on the Master List which now includes a total of 91 Congressional Districts. In addition, we have added Real Clear Politics as our 5th "expert election evaluator".
We believe THIS LIST IS COMPLETE. It includes every District that one or more of our 5 "expert election evaluators" have placed in either the Toss-Up, Democrats rated as Leans-D or Republicans rated as Leans-R categories. But the list includes other Democrat seats that we believe are in play. And, if we are correct, any seat not on our list will not be a pickup for either the Republicans or Democrats in November. The great majority of these seats are either currently held by Democrat incumbents or are Open seats previously held by a Democrat. There are a few open Republican seats on the list and also a few Republican seats that our "experts" believe are going be seriously contested by the Democrats.
We have evaluated ALL Master List contests and placed the leading and/or "Freeper Endorsed" candidate in Column 1 and the closest contenders in Column 2 and 3 in ranking order. We expect some of these choices to be challenged and it is certain that the choices will change as we progress through the election cycle. Note that in most cases we have chosen not to include candidates on this list that have not officially announced they are running. When new announcements are made our list of challengers will be reviewed and updated as necessary.
Other significant changes for this UPDATE include:
We have added CA-3, DE-AL, FL-25, GA-8, HI-1, LA-2, MN-1, MN-6, NE-2, NM-1, PA-6, WA-8 to our list of contested districts.
We have color coded the chart to highlight things of importance. The RED flag in column 1 is the way we will show additions to the list or major changes in the future. On today's chart the new entries to the list are highlighted.
We have added a LIGHT YELLOW highlight for those states where there is a near-term Primary or Run-Off election. Note that the Texas Run-Off Election will be on April 13th so it deserves special attention.
We have color coded in LIGHT BROWN the Republican Open Seats and the Republican Seats that are believed by our "expert election evaluators" to be at risk.
We have color coded in LIGHT GREEN Primaries that are completed and where no Run-Off election required. Illinois is currently the only state in that category.
I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in three files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1 in PDF format
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2 in PDF format
Color-Code-Chart in PDF format
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Not going to happen. In 2008 McCain got 28% of the vote in District 13. Not worth the trouble.
Is there any way to see who maintains pinglists so this can get more attention?
I think Sarbanes is vulnerable, but I dont know whats going on there (MD-3). One of the challengers (Carney) ran for State Senate before, but thats all I know. Too bad RNC spends all its money on Steele; that would be a good one to fund.
ping
Perhaps the next step in the process is to identify competitive primaries where there is a distinct difference between the GOP candidates. What good is it to identify a vulnerable DEM if we sit idly by while a RINO wins a primary 51%-49%.
COMPETITIVE. NOT MARGINALIZED PATRIOTS.
Dr Harris has some 'friends' here in Missouri that are padding his coffers.
Dr. Andy Harris is the REAL DEAL regarding Conservative politics...donate! We need ALL the conservatives we can elect!
How does someone become a ‘Freeper endorsed’ candidate?
Interesting. A few weeks ago the same list showed leaning Krapovil. Go Andy go!
Gotcha. I had some disagreements with Lungren back when he was AG (related to gun issues), but he has been a fine Congressman, and I’m proud to have him as my representative.
The ‘Rats are contemplating that, but they haven’t made a final decision yet. They’re still looking for a feasible candidate and haven’t found one yet.
We simply accepted Freeper inputs on who we should be supporting. In most cases that was the leading and perhaps the obvious candidate. In a couple of cases it wasn’t and we elected to place the consensus leading candidate in 2nd place. In the long run the best candidates will be the winners of the Primaries and will be the only ones shown.
We've attempted to do something along those lines in our rankings of the candidates in the three column scheme. The rankings were done by myself and randita and we pushed real conservatives who looked like they could be competitive to the top of our lists. We looked at experience, issues, conservative values, pro-life view, the quality of the website presentation, news reports, blogs, polls and recommendations from Freepers.
So you shouldn't see any RINOs in columns one or two of the chart. Naturally if there is only one or two candidates and one's a RINO there isn't much we can do about that. But, as you suggest, we can flag it. To do so we will need some help evaluating the candidates and watching the polls and "expert" rankings to see if a RINO is moving up and could win.
FYI, PA 11, Chris Paige has dropped out so it’s Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta. Go get ‘em, Lou.
We have a Ping List drawm mostly from Freepers who have posted on the various Master List threads but I don't know if there is a central Free Republic depository for Ping Lists. If there is someone should point it out to us.
Durn, I keep looking and hoping that TN 9th steve cohen (Memphis) was added to the list. He does have a Conservative opponent Charlotte Bergmann http://www.bergmannforcongress.com/
Along with the crazy former mayor king willie herenton (d).
of the 78 or so seats, if 20 have competitive primaries, somebody needs to identify exactly who these people are that need support.
freeper support is more crucial in primaries than it is in NOV. Competitive primaries in targetted seats.
I believe Alan Boyd will be voted out in Florida District 2. He supported the healthcare bill against the wishes of his constituency. I am actively campaigning for Steve Southerland in the Republican primary.
freeper support is more crucial in primaries than it is in NOV. Competitive primaries in targetted seats.
The entry in the Main Challenger is nominally who we would recommend you support. The second and third Challenger columns are our 2nd and 3rd choices based on our own evaluation. But you really need to look at all of the candidates and make your own judgment. The best way to do that is is to download the pdf files. They have clickable links to all the candidates websites. So you can just click on the names of the candidates in all 3 columns and take a look at each candidate's campaign website. If there are more than three and you want to look at the rest then just click on the State link in the "ALL" column. This will take you to a politics1.com site with links to all the candidates, even some who have not declared for the race.
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