Posted on 03/31/2010 6:06:29 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
I have updated our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in two files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2
These pdf files have clickable links that will bring up the web pages for each of the Republican candidates on the list. There are a few exceptions but very few.
We now have a total of 78 entries although a few of them are tenuous and will probably be deleted from the list unless there is some very strong reason for keeping them on. These vulnerable districts are those where the name of the incumbent Democrat is highlighted in blue. Typically if 3 or 4 of our selected election experts weigh in with a SAFE DEM rating for the race then it does not serve our purpose to keep that district on our list. It should be clear from the chart which races I'm referring to.
The election experts mentioned above are: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, ElectionProjection.com, CQPolitics.com and just added yesterday, The Cook Political Report. The corresponding headings on the pdf versions of the file are linked to each of these websites so you can check them out yourself. I'm assuming that the ratings for each of these sites will change as the election cycle progresses and it is our plan to keep up to date with the latest view of of each of them. I'm hoping that we can get some help in this area. Watch for changes to any of the races and post your recommended updates. Note that these ratings have been used to select the races that we are covering. We're not interested in sure Dem wins or sure Republican wins. We are less interested in Likely Republican wins. We are focused on those districts that are Leaning Democrat, Toss-Up and Leaning Republican. But a few Likely Republican and several Likely Democrat races are on our list. Also a few Vacant Republican districts are on the list. IL-10 and FL-12 are good examples of this. I will update the chart to highlight all of the Open R seats at some point.
We have managed to get a "Freeper Endorsement" for a total of 38 of the 78 districts on our list, just short of 50%. What that means is that we have received information via Freeper posts and Freeper mail that indicates the "endorsed" candidate is the right choice, should or could win the Primary and has what it takes to win in November. And the candidate has the right qualifications - no RINOs please. All "Freeper Endorsed" candidates are highlighted in blue with a * in front of their name in the "Main Challenger" column of the chart.
As I stated in yesterday's post, our biggest problem is getting "Freeper Endorsements" for the rest of the list. That's what I'm going to be working on. That's what randita's going to be working on and we are looking for all the help we can get. If this turns out to be a really good and accurate list it will get widely distributed and it will be used to help our favored candidates. That's the whole idea here. And ideas for getting that wide distribution are welcomed.
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Today’s update to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats.
Personally I think the race for Michigan’s 7th district is a bit better than a toss up but we’ll have to overcome SEIU money to lock it in.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Walberg
http://www.walbergforcongress.com/Home.aspx
How about investigate and expose all of them so we can clean the sewer in November. Make it squeaky clean of corrupt anti-American sleaze.
78? That’s all?
219 voted for Healthcare. Not even half of them are in trouble for their vote.
I hope we can add Mary Landrieu to the list for 2012.
This would probably be perceived as “a threat”.
Actually, it is. The dems really don’t take kindly to anyone that threatens their POWER to restrict our liberty.
Guinta is the popular ex-mayor of Manchester, and there aren't many trucons to split the vote.
Guinta in NH-1 is a done deal. You heard it here first.
Right now we are focused on the House races. I'm hoping someone else will work the Senate.
The sad thing here is that Pelosi, Sanchez and Stupak (among others) are SAFE D. Should we be flooding these areas with money or is that just throwing money away? Is there ANY hope that a Scott Brown moment could happen in one of those three districts? If there is any hope, I would love to see a concerted effort to go after those seats.
I would suggest adding NJ-6 Representative Frank Pallone to your list.
Republican Chris Christie beat John Corzine by 15.5% in Pallone’s district last November. I don’t think the Democrats have done anything to endear themselves to the voters in the mean time.
Christie is giving the voters of New Jersey an education in responsible Republican government. I would not be at all surprised to see the voters responding favorably across-the-board in the Fall.
VERY well done!
You have my sympathy and that of many other Freepers. For the near term I'm keeping the Stupak seat in play because it is likely that a major effort will be made to unseat him. Time will tell on that one. Ditto FL-22 where Allen West is running and has great support. It looks bleak right now based on our "expert election evaluators" but I think we have a shot at it. We need some polling. Likewise with Sanchez.
This sounds like a job for Sarah Palin!
In the March 29th edition of The Weekly Standard, an article by Johnathan V. Last titled “Polls Apart” makes some important points about the nature of support for Obama and, ultimately, congressional democrats. Last states that while support for Obama in the overall population has dropped precipitously since his inauguration, support among the African-American community has actually increased from the mid-80’s to the low-to-mid 90’s. This support by Obama’s core group has been a major factor in keeping his approval numbers within sniffing distance of the vital 50% threshold.
But—here’s the author’s key point: Although Blacks make up 12% of the U.S. population in general, the black population is highly concentrated, primarily in the inner cities. So, my take on the article is that we will still have areas such as Watts or Newark where everyone loves Obama. These districts are totally safe democrat seats. No amount of poverty, crime, drugs, or poor education foisted upon the inhabitants by a half-century of democrat rule will ever get them to pull the lever next to the letter “R.”
But, the converse is that most districts have an African-American population that is well below the national average of 12%, and support for Obama in particular and democrats in general will be more dependent upon actual policies than the skin color of the policy maker. Lack of support for Obama will almost certainly result in a concomitant lack of support for democrat congressional candidates.
Right now we are focused on the House races. I’m hoping someone else will work the Senate.
Oops. I can’t believe I did that AGAIN. My congressman, Steve Scalise is a good guy so I have no problem with our congressman. But, I am so obsessed with getting Landrieu out I keep throwing her name into whatever conversation is going on about getting the critters out of our government. I have to calm down a bit and pay more attention. Sorry.
Right now we are focused on the House races. I’m hoping someone else will work the Senate.
Also, last time I made the mistake of putting Landrieus name in a congress conversation, I got spanked considerably. I hope I can escape the wrath this time:)
Nice work, but you forgot to put some crosshairs on that chart.
The experts say Texas 25 is safe for Democrat incumbent Lloyd Doggett. Maybe so, but I intend to work hard to defeat him. He is a true-believer socialist, plaintiff’s trial lawyer. For the sake of freedom and sanity, he really needs to go.
Specifically, I'm concerned about primary candidates brandishing endorsements by people who really don't know who they are and trying to end-run the voters by getting into duelling-endorsement peeing contests.
In addition to some of the wacky endorsements I've seen lately, we (Western Colorado) have chronic problems with the NRA being fooled by leftists who masquerade as constitutionalists to get their endorsement.
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