Posted on 03/24/2010 11:48:18 AM PDT by OldDeckHand
According to models by statistician Nate Silver, Republicans will pick up five Senate seats in the midterm elections under the most likely scenario, for a total of 46 seats. That is a net gain of one seat from the last time Silver ran the model two weeks ago. Silver's projections also show a ten percent chance that the GOP will takeover the majority in the upper body.
Seven or eight is more likely at this point.
Ping to this post - karlinohio explains it more effectively than I did.
2010 cycle favors the dem’s because they do not have many seats to defend But the 2012 cycle they will be defending 24 seats and will be very very tough for the rats.
if that Obama worshipping little f*g&ot Nate Silver predicts five, then ten is within reach....
They probably will by sending out a bunch of Dim-lite candidates. I have hope they will correct long-standing errors, but serious doubts.
Oh man, both houses possible?
Bummer will get NOTHING done, and Bummercare will be strangled for lack of funding.
When Duh Dems lose a Ted Kennedy held Senate seat, just about all Dims should be in trouble.
Larry Sabato is currently predicting pickups for the GOP:
Senate +7
House +27
Governors +7
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
If JD beats McCain, you can all it six.
Depends on the state, how many large cities influence their elections, amount of voter fraud and intimidation, percentage of voters on the public dole etc.
In the House, one must factor in gerrymandering.
Well, this year is going to be unusual because there will be intense public heat on them over Bummercare. They will, if not totally tone deaf, promise to beat Bummercare till it’s dead or at least permanently unconscious.
Five would be a very conservative estimate. I’d say at least 5 are practically guaranteed. I’d put the over/under at about 7 1/2 or 8 and bet the over. If we get a real wave of voter rebellion, and some strong GOP candidates (though not necessarily strong Senators) like Tommy Thompson and George Pataki stepping up, I could see 11 or 12.
“But the 2012 cycle they will be defending 24 seats and will be very very tough for the rats.”
Predicting the 2012 cycle is like trying to predict northeast Ohio weather 3 weeks in advance.
Not likely.
Some are already pulling back and saying they don’t want the whole thing repealed as there are “good parts in it.” That won’t win. I hope I am pleasantly surprised in all this, but I will not pin my happiness on those hopes.
5 new seats vs. McCain, Graham, Snowe, Collins, and a few others
Might not be much of a gain.
And, people are not going to be happy with half measures that leave the odious core, the mandate part, standing. They will insist that this vampire gets the silver bullet.
Exactly my first reaction. 5? WTF? 15 or 20 is waht I want.
nov??????????? we won’t have a country by then if they continue with this socialist/communist agenda. slowly our liberties are being taken away
Real Clear Politics has GOP net gain of 7
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