Partisan Fallout of Immigration GOP Vote Share Drops as Foreign-Born % Grows

Center for Immigration Studies ^ | Feb. 2010 | James G. Gimpel

[AuntB]

How has the growth of the immigrant population changed the political partisan leanings of the places where immigrants have settled? The answer to this question is of considerable interest to academic specialists, journalists, interest groups, and political parties engaged in the immigration policy debate. If the impact of mass immigration is politically neutral, there is no reason to be concerned that constituencies will change appreciably by the settlement and naturalization of new arrivals. In that case, immigration might have economic and cultural impacts that should be anticipated, but no one need be concerned about political shifts.

On the other hand, if immigration does change the politics of locales, districts, and even entire states, then what might those changes entail? Certainly one important implication will be a resultant public shift toward favoring governmental activism — a belief that government should do more, rather than less. Latino voters, for instance, are presently among the demographic groups that are most strongly behind an activist government. This is undoubtedly because they have, on balance, lower incomes, and concentrate in areas monopolized by Democratic Party politics into which they are easily socialized.

Observers have witnessed the concurrent surge in California’s immigrant population, fueled mostly by the relocation of less-educated Mexicans, along with its rising Democratic Party majority, especially in presidential elections.1 Recent studies of Latino party identification have shown that those of Mexican origin, and occupying the lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder, are especially likely to identify with the Democratic Party (Alvarez and Garcia-Bedolla 2003, 40). Remarkably, Latinos in California appear to vote overwhelming Democratic even when Republican Latino candidates are on the ballot opposing Anglo Democrats (Michelson 2005).

It is not surprising, then, that the nation’s sustained flow of lower-skilled immigrants, largely from Latin America, has given rise to predictions of an emerging Democratic Party majority by a variety of studious onlookers (Judis and Texiera 2002; Campbell 2008; Arnoldy 2008; Lopez and Taylor 2009). After all, the propensity for immigrants, and especially Latinos, to be swing voters has been wildly exaggerated by wishful-thinking Republican politicians and business-seeking pollsters who refuse to acknowledge the durability of individual party identification (Green, Palmquist, and Schickler 2002). Nevertheless, the rise in Democratic Party prospects in California and elsewhere has more than a single source, and it is always questionable just how much this partisan realignment can be attributed to immigration.

Among the findings:

* The electoral impact of immigration has been greatest in counties with large populations, where most immigrants settle. In these locations, Republicans have lost 0.58 percentage points in presidential elections for every one percentage-point increase in the size of the local immigrant population. On average the immigrant share has increased 9.5 percent in these counties.

* In counties of at least 50,000, where the immigrant share increased by at least two percentage points from 1980 to 2008, 62 percent saw a decline in the Republican percentage. In counties with at least a four percentage-point increase, 74 percent saw a decline in the GOP vote. In counties with at least a six percentage-point gain in the immigrant share, 83 percent saw a decline in the GOP vote share.

* Republicans have remained competitive in presidential elections because losses in high-immigration counties have been offset by steady gains in low-immigration counties.

* Even in Texas and Florida, often thought to be an exception, the rising immigrant population across counties is associated with sharply diminished support for Republican candidates.

* In Texas, for example, the estimate shows that for every 1 percentage-point increase in the immigrant population in a county, the Republican vote share dropped by 0.67 percentage points, which is more than the decline nationally association with immigration.

* The decline does not seem to be associated with the local Republican Party’s position on illegal immigration.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Mexicans had to be warned not to offer bribes to police officers and other authorities in the US-—where it is a crime. Not a crime in Mexico.

That is quite true. When I was in Mexico 20 years ago, the Mexicans told me (translated from Spanish), "When your police break the law, your government punishes them. Here, the lie rules."

But since that time, I believe more of our officials have evolved to live for "la mordida," under both Republican and Dem Presidents.

[dennisw]

word! Idiocracy world wide and USA too. 0bama is our first Idiocratic president voted in by the idiots who out breed the sane, the modest, the conservative and those educated in the university of common sense

[AuntB]

Yep, Mordida....lie, cheat, steal....the motto of Mexico.

Check this out, daddy...Mexico’s all bothered about some reasonable legislation...again! Just received from NAFBPO, foreign news report. What bothers me most about Mexico, is the influence they have on our government.

http://www.nafbpo.org

Friday, 2/19/10

La Prensa Grafica (San Salvador, El Salvador) 2/18/10

U.S. legislative proposal makes news south of the border

[Full transl. of article written by “editorial staff,” and titled “Children of undocumented would not ‘receive’ citizenship.” Articles dealing with this same issue have recently appeared in other papers south of the border.]

Sub-headline: “Citizenship would not be automatic at birth. The proposal by a Republican legislator would require that one of the parents be a citizen or permanent resident of the United States.”

United States federal law grants citizenship automatically to any person who is born in its territory, no matter the migratory circumstances of his parents; but this right could be lost if the request of the Republican Gary Miller prospers. According to a note published in the “El Mundo de España” newspaper, this is not the first time that a similar request arises among some Republicans and conservative groups who aim to abolish automatic citizenship for children born in the United States from immigrants without papers.

During the decade of the nineties it was even included in the Republican Party platform (in 1996), but it did not make headway because it was considered to be against the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, an argument that has not lost validity and that has once again risen against the new proposal. Some experts claim that this initiative contradicts the Constitution, while the promoters consider it “an interpretation” of what is meant to be said by the amendment.

According to other press reports, the initiative also seeks to criminalize undocumented residency, to sanction those who aid the undocumented and to carry out massive deportations. It also prohibits granting driver’s licenses to anyone who does not prove his citizenship or legal residence. The California legislator’s plan also eliminates the right of an undocumented person to be the owner of a house. One of the arguments used by those who support this motion is the economic crisis.

According to Miller, The “Leave Act” – “Vayanse Acto” (“Go Away Act” – as translated in the article) “is the best solution” for the country. The legislator argues that while there are 15 million Americans unemployed and “7,000 undocumented” (sic) do have work. The Republican estimates that the undocumented population in the United States would be reduced by half in five years, and it would also serve as a disincentive for future migrants to travel to have their children born in the United States.

The immigrant community looks forward to a national scale demonstration on March 21, for the purpose of reminding President Barack Obama of the promise he made during his campaign to approve an integral migratory reform.

A right since the civil war.

The 14th Amendment was ratified to safeguard the rights of slaves who obtained their freedom due to the civil war. Since then, the U.S. grants citizenship automatically to those born in its territory, no matter the status of the parents. Gary Miller seeks to modify the Immigration and Nationality Act, which interprets this constitutional amendment. The modification would require that one of the parents of the newborn be a citizen, permanent resident, or active military.

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/departamento-15/noticias/94388–hijos-de-indocumentados-no-recibirian-ciudadania.html

——————————

[stephenjohnbanker]

B U M P

[Liz]

Amnesty means Third World Mob Rule. Ohaha is smoking something illegal if he thinks Americans will become accustomed to Third World mob rule---just on his say-so.

=======================================

Now this will warm the cockles of your heart. Read on. If any state was ripe for a demonstration of Third World election force, it was the Nov 2009 race for NJ governor. The race was considered a "squeaker" that would go on till all hours. But two hours after the polls closed, the Repub was declared the winner with a comfortable 4-point margin (would have been higher were it not for Dem voter fraud).

The winning Republican Lt Governor candidate----a County Sheriff----was lacerated by latino groups b/c she had applied for the federal 287(g) program. Latinos began an allout assault---accusing the Sheriff of "political pandering" and for scouting incidents of indictable offenses such as driving under the influence by undocumented immigrants coming into the County jail, and asking about about immigration status, regardless of the offense.

The Sheriff had simply sought to ensure that "illegal criminals" were not unduly released for fear illegals would further harm the citizenry and the community.

NEW JERSEY IS "IDENTITY FRAUD CENTRAL" FOR LATINO IDENTITY THEFT

Two Texans busted in bogus ID operation in NJ NORTH BERGEN, NJ -- July 21, 2006 -- Pelcastre brothers, Angel and Jorge, Dallas, Texas, were a walking threat to US national security, expert document forgers who, for a few thousand dollars, could give anyone a new identity, authorities said. The Texas brothers turned a NJ hotel room into a business office and were readying a massive cache of fake Social Security cards for delivery to a local NJ identity broker.

The Texas brothers were a "one-stop shop" for a myriad of fake US documents, including birth certificates, Social Security cards, driver's licenses for any state in the US, passports and resident alien cards, said state police. Officers happened upon two cars bearing Texas plates in a NJ hotel parking lot. Authorities wouldn't identify the NJ hotel by name for fear it would spark retribution. The Drug Interdiction Task Force, regularly runs checks.

The Texas brothers were followed to a NJ office supply store nearby where they purchased computer supplies. Officers then followed the Texans to a NJ storage facility in Secaucus, NJ, where the Texans loaded several boxes into a car. One of them stood lookout. Authorities approached the Texas brothers when they returned to the NJ hotel and questioned them separately. The Texas brothers consented to a search.

Police recovered laminating sheets with built-in security features, pages of blank documents waiting for fake names and information, finished documents, computers and software to create the fake IDs. All told, the haul was worth about $500,000 on the street. Police also recovered $6,000 in cash, which was the first payment from a NJ fake document broker for a shipment of 500 Social Security cards.

===============================================

Ohaha was heavly invested in the NJ gubernatorial race. Ohaha's carefully laid plans----for installing a permanent Dem majority w/ illegals-----went haywire. Pulling out all the stops for NJ made Ohaha a VERY good target for those disgusted with Ohaha’s policies.

OBAMA WAS DESPERATE FOR A NJ WIN TO PROTECT THE WH AGENDA. Obama put the power of the WH machine behind Corzine. The NY Times reported:
(a) every TV ad Corzine put on the air was being screened by Obama's WH team.
(b) Corzine's aides gave the WH daily briefings.
(c) Obama’s pollsters took over for Corzine’s polling team.
(d) White House operatives were on the ground for internal strategy sessions.
(e) White House operatives were orchestrating obscure pep rallies with Latinos (kept secret from voters).
(f) Corzine had a "Peruvian Pac" endorsing him.
(g) Ohaha campaigned in the state three times, Biden was there twice. Ohaha TV ads ran relentlessly in costly NY media markets.
(h) Corzine promised to give illegals driving credentials & in-state tuition.
(i) Corzine sucked up bigtime and REFUSED to enforce current immigration laws.
(j)Corzine formed a Blue Ribbon committee of latinos and other hypenates who were using tax dollars to mine votes for Corzine.
(k) Also sucking up to illegals was Democrat US Sen Robert Menendez, a Spanish-speaking Corzine campaigner.
(l)Corzine appointed latinos to the Supreme Court and to other high profile state jobs.

Other pertinent facts:

>> Incumbent Dem Jon Corzine (the wealthy loser) outspent the Repub winner about 4-1.
>> New Jersey has a huge Democratic registration.
>> Corzine bragged he had 20,000 paid union helpers on the ground election day to get out the vote.
>> There was a third party candidate siphoning off Republican votes.
>> Corzine had the power of incumbency.
>> Corzine had the power of a crooked Democrat Machine cooking the vote.
>> Ohaha hid $17.5 BILLION stimlulus in New Jersey.....for Corzine's reelection campaign.

And still Corzine lost.

====================================

The WH's lack of political savvy was glaringly on display. Early in the NJ campaign, an onslaught of weird WH approved-ads blanketed the pricey NY media markets-----showed Ohaha at a NJ rally praising Corzine---with strange "reaction shots" of people w/ deadpan faces, watching Ohaha. Predictably Corzine's numbers fell precipitously.

But WH know-it-alls still didn't "get it." Ohaha and Biden came back to NJ---more weird Ohaha ads ensued. Corzine also ran sap-happy liberal "I got feelings" ads. None of the pundits thought the Repubs could pull it off. The rest is history. It appears the WH bombed.....the unions failed Corzine.....and the Latino suckup failed.

THE UPSHOT According to Ohaha's slimy Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs, Ohaha was "busy with other matters" election night and "wasn't really concerned" with election results... an indication the WH is sucking up valium and vodka in order to anesthetize themselves from the aftermath.....trying to convince themselves the election was not a referendum on Obama, and the futile push for amnesty.

[Impy]

Serious worry? Or overblown data?

[SkipW]

Fascinating information. I have been saying for years that the American Government is an ongoing criminal enterprise.

What happened in New Jersey as laid out in this article is an exellent confirmation of that assessment. These people should be in the penetentiary, not in the Oval Office.

[Liz]

What happened in NJ is an exellent confirmation of what I have been saying ...... the American Govt is an ongoing criminal enterprise. These people should be in the penetentiary, not in the Oval Office.

No one could possibly disagree with your assessment. Now hold on. They got more tricks up their serapes.

Corrupt Third World government obviously have the same playbook---"How To Personally Profit By Draining the US Treasury."

Mexican savages are creating new classes of US refugees whining to get tax-subsidized "Political Asylum" to protect them from Drug Wars amd from "Abusive Spouses."

HOW? Social Security has a "persecution" classification (originated when Eastern Bloc refugees claiming religious or political persecution. (AND GET THIS: Connivers from circa WW II eastern Europe and other Soviet satellite countries are STILL collecting).

The Mexican govt is coaching its citizens to pour into the US, whining about "persecution." Some of these whiners are wealthy phonies, squatting on US soil, intent on draining the US treasury.

THE RIPOFF UP CLOSE A Social Security category provides outrageous government financial aid to "refugees" claiming "persecution." These phonies never paid a dime into the SS system; yet, they can collect seven years straight...... and can get extended payments if they are politically well-connected. The SS checks can amount to $1000 a month, and more.

In fiscal year 2008, the US government received 47,459 asylum claims and granted 10,743 - a decrease over the previous year's 54,957 applications and 12,807 approvals. Immigration attorneys insist that asylum applications won't spike if the administration expands protection to battered women.

MORE WAYS THAN ONE TO DRAIN THE US TREASURY Illegals are crying "domestic violence" to collect. "How are asylum authorities going to substantiate these claims when we know that domestic violence is a complicated thing," said Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the advocacy group Federation for American Immigration Reform. "This is getting the US into personal relationships, and that's not where asylum law ought to go."

Mehlman said his organization opposed expanding the asylum law (which was created in 1980 largely as a means for Communist Bloc citizens to defect while visiting the US in a diplomatic role.) Backers of the law at the time estimated that claims would average around 5,000 a year and drop off significantly after the Cold War ended.

The biggest problems is kids of illegals delivered in US hospitals at our expense, rewarded with the same citizenship we have (with all those benefits set aside for OUR populations). And then they grow up to be liberals who all vote Democrat. They're on the dole at birth and are told Democrats saved them.

[TADSLOS]

Illegals are a protected class by D.C. political elite for a reason. They are the key to a voting block treasure trove.

[raybbr]

Immigration attorneys insist that asylum applications won't spike if the administration expands protection to battered women.

I wonder what the percentage of women living in messyco or any other SA garbage dump could claim "abuse" by the standards of U.S. law? Sixty or seventy percent?

[AuH2ORepublican]

My guess? Statistical noise. It takes so many years for an immigrant (especially someone that came in illegally) to become a citizen and start voting that comparing voting patterns in the county for the ten-year period is meaningless. So Dallas County, TX has had many immigrants of late and is voting far less Republican? Given that Anglos in Dallas and its close-in suburbs have trended Democrat from the ridiculously Republican highs from 10-20 years ago, http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2436921/poststhat many conservative Anglos have moved to surrounding counties, and that Dallas County keeps attracting blacks from other states, you are really comparing apples and oranges. The only number that matters is how immigrants have voted, and those county numbers aren’t very helpful at determining that.

There are many reasons why we should clamp down on illegal immigration and oppose amnesty, but supporting a drastic reduction in legal immigration (the logical conclusion of the supposed statistical analysis) not only violates the GOP’s principles but will hurt us at the polls by (i) costing us votes of legal immigrants that will see us as xenophobic, (ii) seeing a reduction in potential law-abiding immigranrs seeking an opportunity in a free country (natural Republicans), (iii) hurting us with the business community that will see labor costs being raised artificially, and (iv) creating an incentive for even more illegal immigration.

So let’s crack down on employers hiring illegals, build a border fence if it will help, push for excluding non-legal residents (be they on tourist visas or here illegally) from the Census count used for apportionment (why didn’t the GOP not doing this between 2001-2007; the RATs would take a huge hit if they changed the law to count illegals), legislate to exclude children of non-permanent residents from birthright citizenship, and other measures in the name of law and order and fairness. But shutting down immigration in an attempt to freeze demographics is futile, foolhardy and counterproductive.

[AuntB]

And then there is this...Mexicans, many of them well to do, are holding up in the US because of the violence/chaos in Mexico.

Mexicans flee drug war city in fear of killings
Thu, Feb 18 2010 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1819528920100218

-Can’t be posted, good article from NAFBPO
-Highlights

Ciudad Juarez - About a quarter of homes in the city lie empty as residents escape or new houses are left vacant, Academics and Ciudad Juarez officials put it at between 75,000 and 200,000 people since mid-2008.

At least 30,000 people have moved to El Paso.

[Condor51]

Now now. Remember what el Presidente Jorge Arbusto said:

• Family values don't stop at the Rio Grande.
  
• These are good, hard working, people.
  annnnd
• They are only doing the jobs that _lazy Americans won't do.

And as the Open Border Lobby, neocons, and 'some FReepers' have said:

• These ILLEGAL Mexicans come from moral families, are moral themselves, are very religious, are hard working and don't take handouts and are, 'Law Abiding' (which kind of contradicts the illegal part doesn't it?) (/s) and will make very good Republicans.

However. As that old saying goes: 'A picture is worth a thousand words'.
Well ... HERE is that picture:

Yes siree Bob. That picture has 'Family Values', 'Morals', 'Religious', and 'Law Abiding' written all over it! I just can't wait for them to become US Citizens and start voting Republican.

By golly, it will be a nationwide landslide for the GOP. Why we may even win the Mayor's race in Chicago with all these new Republicans. It'll be something to really behold.

[Liz]

Well-to-do Mexicans are holed up in the US because of the violence/chaos in Mexico........fleeing drug wars.

Oh please---this is so phony. People supposedly "fleeing" are being aided and abetted by the Mexican govt----to tap into the huge US market for drugs----setting up untouchable drug cartels.

The Mexican govt is COMPLICIT in drug dealing----they are all getting a cut of the enormous profits.

The "fleeing" phonies are being coached on how to get on the US gravy train as they set up drug cartels on US soil.

The Mexican govt is running a protection racket for its "fleeing" citizens who are setting up untouchable drug cartels, protected by stupid American politicians, sucking up to latinos for votes.

[MHGinTN]

There is a solution to the drug problem in the U.S. But it is a long and hard road.

When the economy gets so bad that a high enough percentage of people no longer draw a paycheck and pay taxes, the druggies will increase their raids on homes of citizens, armed citizens. When enough druggies are blow to hell by gun owners, the demand for drugs from Mexican import will diminish to the point that Mexicans in Mexico will take control of their nation and slaughter the scum who have destroyed Mexico in order to have a base from which to run the U.S. drug trades.

With the current crop of fools in both parties running the government, there is no other possible solution. So let's get it on ... lock and load, citizens!

[AuntB]

Agreed!

[Liz]

With the current crop of fools in both parties running the US government, there is no other solution: drug cartels are blown to hell by US gun owners, then the demand for Mexican imports will diminish----Mexicans will take control of their nation and slaughter the scum who destroyed Mexico to have a base from which to run the US drug trades. So let's get it on ... lock and load, citizens!

Sounds good to me.

[TADSLOS]

Red herring argument. If that’s the case, then why are Americans buying homes and relocating there in gated/guarded communities (hint: cost of living outweighs the risk)? Why can’t rich/educated Mexicans do that?

[rmlew]

My guess? Statistical noise. It takes so many years for an immigrant (especially someone that came in illegally) to become a citizen and start voting that comparing voting patterns in the county for the ten-year period is meaningless.

BS. Middle class whites leave because of tax pressure brought on by, among other things, subsidizing poor immigrants. Te nativeunderclass has no chance to rise. The New immigrants, having benefitted from years of subsidize and being influenced by grivence lobbies vote reliably Democrat. Texas may be an exception, but come visit New York, New Jersey, California (no longer Reagan country), Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina.

There are many reasons why we should clamp down on illegal immigration and oppose amnesty, but supporting a drastic reduction in legal immigration (the logical conclusion of the supposed statistical analysis) not only violates the GOP’s principles but
The GOP was founded by elements of the American Republican Party/the American Party (know nothings) and Whigs and Free Soilers, none of whom liked immigration. Hisorically, the GOP has been the party pushing immigration reduction.

(i) costing us votes of legal immigrants that will see us as xenophobic, (ii)seeing a reduction in potential law-abiding immigranrs seeking an opportunity in a free country (natural Republicans),
Already happening regardless of our actions. Economics, grievance politics, and leftist education is hard to beat. The only solutions is assimilation and Americanization, both of which are made harder by the influx of immigrants.

hurting us with the business community that will see labor costs being raised artificially, and (iv) creating an incentive for even more illegal immigration.
We've been subsidizing them for years. Let them pay real wages so people can have better standard of living, settle in communities and move right.

[Kimberly GG]

Thank you Liz, as always, for such informative posts! You are an encyclopedia of knowledge on these issues and I appreciate all that you bring to Free Republic.