Partisan Fallout of Immigration GOP Vote Share Drops as Foreign-Born % Grows

Center for Immigration Studies ^ | Feb. 2010 | James G. Gimpel

[AuntB]

How has the growth of the immigrant population changed the political partisan leanings of the places where immigrants have settled? The answer to this question is of considerable interest to academic specialists, journalists, interest groups, and political parties engaged in the immigration policy debate. If the impact of mass immigration is politically neutral, there is no reason to be concerned that constituencies will change appreciably by the settlement and naturalization of new arrivals. In that case, immigration might have economic and cultural impacts that should be anticipated, but no one need be concerned about political shifts.

On the other hand, if immigration does change the politics of locales, districts, and even entire states, then what might those changes entail? Certainly one important implication will be a resultant public shift toward favoring governmental activism — a belief that government should do more, rather than less. Latino voters, for instance, are presently among the demographic groups that are most strongly behind an activist government. This is undoubtedly because they have, on balance, lower incomes, and concentrate in areas monopolized by Democratic Party politics into which they are easily socialized.

Observers have witnessed the concurrent surge in California’s immigrant population, fueled mostly by the relocation of less-educated Mexicans, along with its rising Democratic Party majority, especially in presidential elections.1 Recent studies of Latino party identification have shown that those of Mexican origin, and occupying the lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder, are especially likely to identify with the Democratic Party (Alvarez and Garcia-Bedolla 2003, 40). Remarkably, Latinos in California appear to vote overwhelming Democratic even when Republican Latino candidates are on the ballot opposing Anglo Democrats (Michelson 2005).

It is not surprising, then, that the nation’s sustained flow of lower-skilled immigrants, largely from Latin America, has given rise to predictions of an emerging Democratic Party majority by a variety of studious onlookers (Judis and Texiera 2002; Campbell 2008; Arnoldy 2008; Lopez and Taylor 2009). After all, the propensity for immigrants, and especially Latinos, to be swing voters has been wildly exaggerated by wishful-thinking Republican politicians and business-seeking pollsters who refuse to acknowledge the durability of individual party identification (Green, Palmquist, and Schickler 2002). Nevertheless, the rise in Democratic Party prospects in California and elsewhere has more than a single source, and it is always questionable just how much this partisan realignment can be attributed to immigration.

Among the findings:

* The electoral impact of immigration has been greatest in counties with large populations, where most immigrants settle. In these locations, Republicans have lost 0.58 percentage points in presidential elections for every one percentage-point increase in the size of the local immigrant population. On average the immigrant share has increased 9.5 percent in these counties.

* In counties of at least 50,000, where the immigrant share increased by at least two percentage points from 1980 to 2008, 62 percent saw a decline in the Republican percentage. In counties with at least a four percentage-point increase, 74 percent saw a decline in the GOP vote. In counties with at least a six percentage-point gain in the immigrant share, 83 percent saw a decline in the GOP vote share.

* Republicans have remained competitive in presidential elections because losses in high-immigration counties have been offset by steady gains in low-immigration counties.

* Even in Texas and Florida, often thought to be an exception, the rising immigrant population across counties is associated with sharply diminished support for Republican candidates.

* In Texas, for example, the estimate shows that for every 1 percentage-point increase in the immigrant population in a county, the Republican vote share dropped by 0.67 percentage points, which is more than the decline nationally association with immigration.

* The decline does not seem to be associated with the local Republican Party’s position on illegal immigration.

[AuntB]

Poll: Mexicans say Mexican-Americans Owe Loyalty to Mexico Over U.S. Thu Oct 15 11:51:17 2009 ·

(CNSNews.com) - Nearly 70 percent of Mexicans surveyed said that Mexican-Americans – including those born in the United States – owe their primary loyalty to Mexico, not the U.S.

[SmokingJoe]

“Partisan Fallout of Immigration GOP Vote Share Drops as Foreign-Born % Grows”

/sarc.. The GOP's vote share has "dropped" so much that the GOP won in NJ, VA and MA, overturning huge 0bama/Democratic majorities from as recently as 2008.

[skeeter]

Thats the new American Dream, I guess - transform the US into your own image and make a few bucks in the process.

[puppypusher]

That’s the reason we’re allowing unlimited immigration into the United States.To increase minority representation and decrease the stregnth of the white middle class.

That’s what the Kennedy sponsored 1965 immigration bill was all about if my memory serves me correctly.

[skeeter]

I believe low democrat morale has much to do with those victories.

We should all be grateful, but too bad we have to depend upon the other side not showing up.

Its beyond debate that a strong majority of recent legal arrivals align with the democrats.

[gubamyster]

ping

[AuntB]

Aother fact:

The lie, “anti-illegal immigration people cost the repubs the 2006 election!!

The truth:11.5% of all Republican seats in Congress were lost as Democrats took back control of Congress

But only 6.7% of the Members of Tancredo’s Immigration Reform Caucus lost their seats.

# 9.6% with an A grade lost

# 25.0% with an F grade lost

http://www.numbersusa.com/hottopic/electionanalysis.html

[Clintonfatigued]

This trend is quite ominous.

[pnh102]

The decline does not seem to be associated with the local Republican Party’s position on illegal immigration.

Which is exactly why the GOP must STOP supporting illegal immigration.

[AuntB]

But, but...these new immigrants are Christian and have family values!

Illegal aliens charged with kidapping, rape of Delaware teen

February 18, 1:14 AMImmigration Reform ExaminerDave Gibson

Police in Georgetown, DE have arrested three men for the repeated rape of a 16-year-old girl, the attack allegedly taking place in a room at the Classic Motel over a two-day period, earlier this month.

Georgetown Police Lt. Lawrence Grose told a WMDT News reporter: “They just raped her repeatedly between the 5th and the 6th. They held her down, wouldn't let her leave the room.”

The day after the ordeal ended, the girl‘s family reported the alleged rape. The victim was taken to Nanticoke Memorial Hospital and interviewed at the Children's Advocacy Center. Medical staff confirmed that the girl’s injuries were indeed consistent with a violent sexual assault.

All three suspects, Felix Flores, Alex Alvarado and Erik Maldonado have been charged with rape as well as kidnapping.

The victim reportedly knew Alvarado, but not the two other assailants. Lt. Grose said: “It took us a while to figure out who they exactly were... The other two guys involved actually turned out to be his cousins.”

He continued: “At least we got them, and they can't hurt anybody else. Nobody should be treated like that, nobody. Especially a little girl. Because to us, she's still a little girl.”

Georgetown police have confirmed that Flores and Alvarado had outstanding warrants for failing to show up for their deportation hearings four years ago. (SHOCKED!!!)

http://www.examiner.com/x-35821-Immigration-Reform-Examiner~y2010m2d18-Illegal-aliens-charged-with-kidapping-rape-of-Delaware-teen

[SmokingJoe]

“I believe low democrat morale has much to do with those victories”

Same as low Republican morale had much to do with Republican losses in 2006 and 2008. The fact of the mater is that conservatives and Republicans are angry and fired up right now, and will turn out in huge numbers to crush the 0bama.Reid/Pelosi cabal.

“We should all be grateful, but too bad we have to depend upon the other side not showing up”

No.
We should be grateful Republicans and conservatives are re-energized, and out doing everything they can to bring down 0bama’ communist regime, and are turning out in huge numbers to vote.

“Its beyond debate that a strong majority of recent legal arrivals align with the democrats”

More reason why we should do everything to stop amnesty, starting with when we take over the congress in November. For Republicans to promote amnesty is like the Republican Party committing suicide. Too bad Bush couldn't get that into his thick head.

[sodpoodle]

***Nearly 70 percent of Mexicans surveyed said that Mexican-Americans – including those born in the United States – owe their primary loyalty to Mexico, not the U.S.***

In order to become naturalized citizens - those born outside of the US - immigrants have to swear allegiance to the USA. It would appear that they are not living up the oath of citizenship.

Could their citizenship be revoked?

[dennisw]

80-90% of our legal/illegal immigrants come from poor 3rd world nations. They will come poor and stay poor because there will be no more booms, real estate booms or rise in prosperity to help lift them up or their children, many of whom will be more into the ghetto gangsta culture

The economic pie is shrinking or at best in steady state and this is how it will stay. For the poor it definitely will be shrinking. No more immigrant scams where a legal Hispanic immigrant gets rich by having a crew of his illegal alien home boys in his crew that does dry wall or roofing and other construction. And it’s done under the table and dodging taxes

In fact tons of immigrants are in cash businesses where they can dodge taxes. I would say more than half

[Will88]

The decline does not seem to be associated with the local Republican Party’s position on illegal immigration.

The poor and less educated will most always vote for the party that promises the most government benefits. That is why the Dims fight to continue importing poverty, and why the Bush/Rove/McCain push to grant amnesty to illegal aliens was and is one of the dumbest political gambits in US history, and if ever successful would go a long way toward giving the Dims a long term majority.

No greater thing can happen for the USA this year than to see JD Hayworth defeat Juan McCain.

[AuntB]

“In order to become naturalized citizens - those born outside of the US - immigrants have to swear allegiance to the USA. It would appear that they are not living up the oath of citizenship.

Could their citizenship be revoked?”

Many of them maintain ‘dual citizenship’...a contradiction in terms, imo. One is Juan Hernandez, McCain’s ‘hispanic’ outreach go to man.

[AuntB]

"No greater thing can happen for the USA this year than to see JD Hayworth defeat Juan McCain. "

Amen.

[blackie]

Yep...

[stephenjohnbanker]

Juan Hernandez is sub human protoplasm

[Clemenza]

Well, AuntB, what this says to me is that the effects of ENFORCING our immigration laws for a change won't save California, but will contain the problem before it spreads to other states.

Letting in ANY group of people with a low median IQ and a low skill set is a recipe for disaster, compounded by the fact that the sending nation directly borders the host nation.

[lone star annie]

No kidding. While the honest American pays through the nose there are thousands of businesses that work under the table for cash. Case in point, I had some electrical wiring down in my house for a hot tub installation. I wrote the electrician a $600.00 check. He immediately went to my bank and cashed it. I am sure the work was not reported.

He said he does about 4 hot tub wirings a week. You do the math. That is a nice living if you don’t pay a dime a tax. That is why I am for a Consumption tax. Everyone pays—the illegals, the pimps and ‘hos and the welfare queens.