Making up news since 2008.
Posted on 02/09/2010 6:08:31 PM PST by neverdem
Three months after a rift between GOP party leaders and grass-roots conservatives led to the special election loss of a historically Republican-held seat in upstate New York, another campaign melodrama is taking shape in the same district.
Doug Hoffman, last November’s Conservative Party nominee in New York’s 23rd District who is vying again for the seat, is refusing to rule out running as a third-party candidate this year if he fails to win the Republican primary.
And his leading backer, Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long, told POLITICO that he refuses to endorse any candidate other than Hoffman — raising the prospect of another contest in which a fracture on the right enables Democratic Rep. Bill Owens to skate to victory.
Long said he was confident that Hoffman would be the Republican nominee but added that Hoffman already had the endorsement of the Conservative Party. Long repeatedly refused to say whether Hoffman would endorse the eventual Republican nominee in the event he loses the GOP primary.
“Of all the potential candidates who are running, Doug Hoffman has the right to run on the Conservative Party platform. There is not even a consideration of anyone else,” Long said. “Doug Hoffman is going to be the Conservative Party candidate.”
Hoffman campaign spokesman Rob Ryan declined to say whether Hoffman would run as a third-party candidate if he failed to win the GOP nomination.
Already preparing for a rematch with Owens, Hoffman commissioned a poll last month showing him with an early, commanding lead in the primary. The poll, conducted by GOP pollster John McLaughlin, shows him leading state Assemblyman William Barclay 56 percent to 24 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The poll shows Hoffman with a strong 63 percent favorability rating among Republicans, with just 19 percent viewing him unfavorably.
“Doug Hoffman has broad-based support in the Republican Party. He plans to earn the nomination, not inherit it,” Ryan said. “Doug Hoffman will be the nominee of the Republican and Conservative parties, and with their unified support, he will defeat Bill Owens in November.”
That confidence hasn’t dissuaded several prospective primary opponents who began making preparations to run after Hoffman fell short in the 2009 special election. After Hoffman’s defeat, candidates began exploring campaigns — with Barclay and businessman Matt Doheny emerging as his top potential opponents.
Unlike in the 2009 special election campaign, in which 11 Republican county leaders in the district selected the party nominee — the much-maligned liberal state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who eventually withdrew from the race — the 2010 GOP nominee will be elected in the Sept. 14 primary.
Last summer, Doheny was passed over by county leaders for the nomination, while Barclay opted not to run and instead backed Scozzafava.
After Scozzafava withdrew and endorsed Owens in the race’s final weekend, Hoffman became the de facto Republican nominee but fell short by about 3,600 votes, making Owens the first Democrat to represent the North Country district in more than a century.
This time around, Barclay is circulating a petition to all interested Republican candidates asking them to pledge support to the winner of the primary.
“One person can’t say who’s going to be the candidate. There’s a primary situation, and the voters should have the right to say who they want to represent them in a general election,” Barclay said. “We’ll have a better chance to know the candidates with it being a primary instead of a special election.”
New York Republican operatives view Barclay, who represents the district’s population base in Oswego County, as a more nimble politician than Hoffman, who had no campaign experience prior to his special election bid. Unlike Scozzafava, Barclay holds a conservative voting record in the Legislature that should satisfy GOP loyalists and activists alike.
The drawback is that he lost a Republican-held seat in a closely watched 2008 state Senate special election. And the two most recent congressional GOP nominees with backgrounds in the New York Legislature — Scozzafava and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, who lost to Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy in another special election last year — have fared poorly.
“If he wants to go forward, he’ll be tagged as the Albany guy. Anyone associated with Albany is bad,” said one New York Republican operative.
“There’s a perception that there’s dysfunction in Albany, but I hope my record shows that I’m not part of the problem, that I’ve offered a lot of solutions,” Barclay responded. “My record in Albany and successes there would be an asset in a primary election.”
Doheny, an investment banker who grew up in the district, is also looking to run and plans to launch his campaign in the next month. The runner-up to Scozzafava at last year’s nominating convention, Doheny has the personal resources to self-fund a campaign — and even committed a half-million of his own money to the race last year if he had been nominated. He still maintains $337,000 in his campaign account.
That fundraising ability could come in handy against Owens, who ended last year with just $241,000 in his campaign account.
A New York GOP operative advising one of the campaigns argued that Hoffman’s sudden rise was an anomaly and that he wouldn’t be able to capture lightning in a bottle twice. The operative predicted Hoffman won’t have a lifeline this time from the national conservative grass-roots movement.
“Without the national effort rallying behind Hoffman, he won’t be able to raise the money to compete,” the operative said. “You have [GOP Senate contenders Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco] Rubio in Florida, you have the fight against [Democratic Sen. Arlen] Specter in Pennsylvania, you have conservatives against [Republican Sen. Bob] Bennett in Utah. He’s not the only game in town for conservatives. There are bigger fish at stake than Doug Hoffman.”
Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.
If Hoffman doesn't win the GOP primary, it's not the end of the world. The GOP nominee could be a turkey with scandals in the closet or commit major errors campaigning. NY needs the Conservative Party because its GOP is pretty lousy, IMHO.
Just wait for it. Soon you will hear from all the anti-liberals here saying that you must vote GOP! That voting conservative is for losers.
(Anti-liberal: Someone who acts exactly as a liberal does, but with a idealogy 180 degrees in opposition. Those who believe the government should step in to control peoples behavior on social issues would be a good example. For it is exactly the same as a progressive liberal, but with a different ideology.)
You know, if Rubio takes the nomination... the GOP will probably cut off all funding for his race in spite. They would rather have a Democrat in power than a conservative.
It’s happened before.
“NY needs the Conservative Party because its GOP is pretty lousy, IMHO”
I can’t debate that point at all. I’m glad the Conservative party exists and that they are no longer rolling over for the GOP.
My point comes from living in a conservative district (NY-29) and being saddled with a D who does not represent me and publicly professed an intention to vote against his constiuents whenever he feels like it. I don’t like it, and should Hoffman do what he plans to do it has a likelyhood of turning out that way, just as it did in the special election because when we are united we stand and divided we fall.
The Conservative Party and the GOP need to come to terms because they need each other in order to prevail. Hoffman’s approach seems more like a scortched earth policy that loses sight of the things that really matter, like what the voters want and what they get at the end. If he really wants a seat that badly he should go do this in his own district and leave the NY-23 folks to sort things out for themselves.
The only GOP left who are supporting Crist is the State Party, however after having the head thrown out about three months ago, while Crist got to pick his replacement, they are pretty much a joke in the State with the local precincts holding control.
The National GOP is giving lip service to Crist but no financial help.
Rubio on the other hand is racking in the big bucks, taking endorsements from Crist plus making many on his own and has the support of the local precincts.
The only way Rubio loses to Crist is if it turns out Marc is a cross-dressing, homosexual who spent his time cruising for men in Tampa bars. Oh sorry, turns out that was Charlie!!
I think the poster was speaking of the pub leaders nuking Rubio in the general election.
Yes, they eat their own.
Check out the video link on this thread.
Rubio will not go quietly into that good night.
Making up news since 2008.
unless the locals are going to shove the RINOs in a car trunk and drive them off a bridge, the RNC bosses are still going to promote/endorse who they want... which is the problem and the point.
Sweet.
Thanks!
Crist soon to be Crisp
In your face RNC.
The whole point of the post was explaining what had to be done to get rid of the bosses. SHEEZE!!!
We'll see. It will certainly be a test of the RNC's interest in winning.
While of course I want to see a conservative retake the seat,if we are successful, it will only be a one-term wonder. NY will lose 2 CD,s after the 2010 census, and since the Dems control Albany, be assured that that this seat will be redistricted out of existence.
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