Posted on 02/09/2010 6:08:31 PM PST by neverdem
Three months after a rift between GOP party leaders and grass-roots conservatives led to the special election loss of a historically Republican-held seat in upstate New York, another campaign melodrama is taking shape in the same district.
Doug Hoffman, last November’s Conservative Party nominee in New York’s 23rd District who is vying again for the seat, is refusing to rule out running as a third-party candidate this year if he fails to win the Republican primary.
And his leading backer, Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long, told POLITICO that he refuses to endorse any candidate other than Hoffman — raising the prospect of another contest in which a fracture on the right enables Democratic Rep. Bill Owens to skate to victory.
Long said he was confident that Hoffman would be the Republican nominee but added that Hoffman already had the endorsement of the Conservative Party. Long repeatedly refused to say whether Hoffman would endorse the eventual Republican nominee in the event he loses the GOP primary.
“Of all the potential candidates who are running, Doug Hoffman has the right to run on the Conservative Party platform. There is not even a consideration of anyone else,” Long said. “Doug Hoffman is going to be the Conservative Party candidate.”
Hoffman campaign spokesman Rob Ryan declined to say whether Hoffman would run as a third-party candidate if he failed to win the GOP nomination.
Already preparing for a rematch with Owens, Hoffman commissioned a poll last month showing him with an early, commanding lead in the primary. The poll, conducted by GOP pollster John McLaughlin, shows him leading state Assemblyman William Barclay 56 percent to 24 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The poll shows Hoffman with a strong 63 percent favorability rating among Republicans, with just 19 percent viewing him unfavorably.
“Doug Hoffman has broad-based support in the Republican Party. He plans to earn the nomination, not inherit it,” Ryan said. “Doug Hoffman will be the nominee of the Republican and Conservative parties, and with their unified support, he will defeat Bill Owens in November.”
That confidence hasn’t dissuaded several prospective primary opponents who began making preparations to run after Hoffman fell short in the 2009 special election. After Hoffman’s defeat, candidates began exploring campaigns — with Barclay and businessman Matt Doheny emerging as his top potential opponents.
Unlike in the 2009 special election campaign, in which 11 Republican county leaders in the district selected the party nominee — the much-maligned liberal state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, who eventually withdrew from the race — the 2010 GOP nominee will be elected in the Sept. 14 primary.
Last summer, Doheny was passed over by county leaders for the nomination, while Barclay opted not to run and instead backed Scozzafava.
After Scozzafava withdrew and endorsed Owens in the race’s final weekend, Hoffman became the de facto Republican nominee but fell short by about 3,600 votes, making Owens the first Democrat to represent the North Country district in more than a century.
This time around, Barclay is circulating a petition to all interested Republican candidates asking them to pledge support to the winner of the primary.
“One person can’t say who’s going to be the candidate. There’s a primary situation, and the voters should have the right to say who they want to represent them in a general election,” Barclay said. “We’ll have a better chance to know the candidates with it being a primary instead of a special election.”
New York Republican operatives view Barclay, who represents the district’s population base in Oswego County, as a more nimble politician than Hoffman, who had no campaign experience prior to his special election bid. Unlike Scozzafava, Barclay holds a conservative voting record in the Legislature that should satisfy GOP loyalists and activists alike.
The drawback is that he lost a Republican-held seat in a closely watched 2008 state Senate special election. And the two most recent congressional GOP nominees with backgrounds in the New York Legislature — Scozzafava and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, who lost to Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy in another special election last year — have fared poorly.
“If he wants to go forward, he’ll be tagged as the Albany guy. Anyone associated with Albany is bad,” said one New York Republican operative.
“There’s a perception that there’s dysfunction in Albany, but I hope my record shows that I’m not part of the problem, that I’ve offered a lot of solutions,” Barclay responded. “My record in Albany and successes there would be an asset in a primary election.”
Doheny, an investment banker who grew up in the district, is also looking to run and plans to launch his campaign in the next month. The runner-up to Scozzafava at last year’s nominating convention, Doheny has the personal resources to self-fund a campaign — and even committed a half-million of his own money to the race last year if he had been nominated. He still maintains $337,000 in his campaign account.
That fundraising ability could come in handy against Owens, who ended last year with just $241,000 in his campaign account.
A New York GOP operative advising one of the campaigns argued that Hoffman’s sudden rise was an anomaly and that he wouldn’t be able to capture lightning in a bottle twice. The operative predicted Hoffman won’t have a lifeline this time from the national conservative grass-roots movement.
“Without the national effort rallying behind Hoffman, he won’t be able to raise the money to compete,” the operative said. “You have [GOP Senate contenders Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco] Rubio in Florida, you have the fight against [Democratic Sen. Arlen] Specter in Pennsylvania, you have conservatives against [Republican Sen. Bob] Bennett in Utah. He’s not the only game in town for conservatives. There are bigger fish at stake than Doug Hoffman.”
Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.
If they put up another Scozzafava, he should run 3rd party. Public service is not an entitlement.
if the RNC does not understand and continues to push progressives, then there is no split... the RNC is just another name for the progressive party.
conservatives and tea party people would do well to avoid.
now... if the RNC gets a clue and starts to back conservative candidates, only then should they get the backing of the tea party nation*
*tea party nation - i like how that sounds
I’m sure the RINOs want to run Dede again! So what if she endorsed the Demagogue last time around??
</sarcasm>
let’s hope it’s sarcasm and nothing more.... the RINOs are looking for their Dede-clone as we speak
It’s nice to know the Ca GoP isn’t the only party stuck on stupid out there. You know what I mean. ;-)
Go Doug!
Have you ever seen the MSM use the term “Left” on coverage of Dem/lefty political stories?
Man, the GOP has pure crap for brains.
Actually, this reinforces what I have believed for a long time. The GOP will deliberately and willingly lose the general election with a RINO than let a conservative win it. The party elite holds conservatives in lower regard than they do liberal Democrats.
They are going to try and nuke Rubio in Florida. If they can't have Crist, they will endeavor to make Rubio unelectable.
I think the politico is trying to light a fire without a match. It was almost automatic for the Conservative Party to endorse the Republican before the Scuzzy debacle. I see no reason why it will not end up the same. I just received a note from Hoffman a few days ago saying he was going after the Republican nomination.
That’s a great observation there. No, I haven’t heard of such a thing, either.
I’m going to climb out on a limb and state here on FreeRepublic that if John McCain were to lose the primary to JD Hayworth, HE might go independent!
Some WashPost writer was wondering whether Crist would go indy the other day.
They can’t find a good consevative candidate who lives in the district?
Hoffman doesn’t seem like all that bad of guy, but I’m having a problem with the carpetbagger thing. It’s up to the NY-23 primary voters to decide for themselves though, and Mr. Hoffam should respect that outcome because it will be an entirely different situation than round one where there wasn’t a primary.
There's one sure-fire way to re-make the RNC.
Elect a conservative President. Fire the RINOs, let him (her)nominate the new leadership.
They can't.
Rubio has all the momentum right now.
Agree.
Of course not. All Democrats are "moderates".
Of course he would. His hero is Teddy Roosevelt. He wouldn’t miss a chance to be the Bull Moose of his day.
Prosecutor, Charge Thyself (Cuomo's role in the meltdown)
Harold Ford Superstar: U.S. Senate wannabe's tour rider
FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.
Elect a conservative President. Fire the RINOs, let him (her)nominate the new leadership.
Yeah, you mean leadership. Like we never got in 8 years from W. Uh, except when he tried to push amnesty through. You're right, we need a real conservative. One who will throw the RINOs out.
They may not be successful, but they will try.
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