Posted on 02/02/2010 3:03:33 AM PST by B-Chan
Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation – 10-kiloton Improvised Nuclear Device 1-1
Casualties: Hundreds of thousands Infrastructure Damage: Total within radius of 0.5 to 3 miles Evacuations/Displaced Persons: 100,000 in affected area seek shelter in safe areas (decontamination required for all before entering shelters)
250,000 instructed to shelter-in-place as plume moves across region(s)
1 million+ self-evacuate from major urban areas Contamination Various levels up to approximately 3,000 square miles Economic Impact Hundreds of billions of dollars Potential for Multiple Events No Recovery Timeline Years
Scenario Overview: General Description – In this scenario, terrorist members of the Universal Adversary (UA) group plan to assemble a gun-type nuclear device using highly enriched uranium (HEU) stolen from a nuclear facility in another country. The nuclear device components are smuggled into the United States, and the device is assembled near a major metropolitan center. Using a delivery van, terrorists plan to transport the device to the business district of a large city and detonate it.
Detailed Attack Scenario – Culminating a 10-year effort, terrorists of the UA group finally succeed in acquiring a sufficient quantity of HEU to construct a simple, gun-type, improvised nuclear device (IND). The UA has been slowly acquiring, at great expense, HEU from various sources outside of the United States. The latest theft of 5 kilograms (~ 11 pounds) will likely be discovered at the next quarterly inventory at the primary facility, but by then the bribed security official, the UA terrorists, and the HEU will be long gone.
The carefully shielded HEU is transported to a UA camp overseas where UA operates with impunity. In an underground bunker, a nuclear weapons engineer and two technicians transform it, along with the earlier acquisitions, into the components required for a gun-type nuclear device. Other acquisition efforts have yielded all the necessary electronics, hardware, and propellant for the device. In fact, UA has built two nearly complete device systems with enough HEU for one functioning device. As a final test of the components, the engineer has assembled the complete device to check the fit of the components. He then disassembles it and reassembles the device with the second set of components. He disassembles that device and carefully cleans all of the electronics, hardware, and HEU to remove any trace of chemical propellant contamination. He reports to the UA Central Command that the nuclear device is ready. Central Command has already decided on ground zero: the center of a U.S. city. National Planning Scenarios FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Version 20.2 DRAFT
The components of the device will be transported to the United States in eight different packages: two sets of hardware, two sets of electronics, two separate packages of propellant (enough for two nuclear devices), a neutron source, and the HEU. The propellant, neutron source, and the engineer will be smuggled across the border with different groups of illegal immigrants. The device electronics and hardware, falsely labeled as various items of electronic equipment, will be shipped as cargo to several small businesses operated by members of a UA sleeper cell. Agents from the sleeper cell collect the engineer and the device components and transport them to a UA safe house in a rural area. Finally, the HEU is encased in a 2-inch thick lead canister and smuggled into the United States, hidden in the rear of a sports utility vehicle (SUV) that is driven by a trusted member of UA. The driver is ostensibly returning from visiting relatives just across the U.S. border. After entering the United States, he also drives to the safe house where a senior member of the UA Central Command and two suicide bombers meet him.
By the time the HEU shortage is discovered and reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), all eight packages, as well as the engineer, are safely across U.S. borders. The IAEA reports the theft of 5 kilograms (~ 11 pounds) of HEU to governments worldwide. In the United States, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary – after consultations with the Secretary of Energy, the Attorney General, and the Homeland Security Advisor – directs the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Customs and Border Protection to increase vigilance at the borders. State and local homeland security authorities are also informed of the potential threat.
The nuclear device is assembled at the safe house. A used delivery van is purchased and painted to indicate that it belongs to a copier service company. A coded e-mail notifies UA Central Command that all is ready. UA Central Command generates a return coded e-mail that sets the time and place of the attack. A dry run of the route is made during Monday morning traffic to ensure the timing of the attack.
At 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, the IND is loaded into the delivery van. The nuclear device is set with three ignition circuits: a manually activated detonator (disguised as a cell phone with power cord) to be carried by the passenger, a timer set to go off at 10:15 a.m., and a booby trap set to go off should anyone open the crate holding the IND. The crate is equipped with shielding materials to reduce the radiation signature. By 9:00 a.m., the vehicle enters the densely populated area, where the passenger arms the dead-man switch on the detonator. At about 9:30 a.m., the vehicle exits the freeway and when in place, the passenger detonates the 10-kiloton nuclear device. Most buildings within 1,000 meters (~ 3,200 feet) of the detonation are severely damaged. Injuries from flying debris (missiles) may occur out to 6 kilometers (~ 3.7 miles). An Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) damages many electronic devices within about 5 kilometers (~ 3 miles). A mushroom cloud rises above the city and begins to drift east-northeast...
I would be surprised if we did not turn Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Yemen, Iran, Libia, Somalia and a few other S-holes into glass if this happened. I believe that is what the Brits feared the most after 911, that is, the US would nuke the crap out of Afghanistan and a few other countries.
FWIW, I have been stockpiling key supplies, especially ammo, for some time and would encourage anyone who has the will to survive to do the same.
ping
No organized army to worry about. As long as we have nuke subs roaming the seas no country will try that. Our problems would be here, and there would be plenty of them. I also believe that a nuclear device of some sort will be used to terrorize here one day. The odds are not with us, as arms proliferate throughout the world.
In such a scenario,martial law would be useless to restore order because those that would be responsible for enforcing it would be trying to survive themselves. Small groups of family and friends that could trust each other would be the key until things could begin to recover.
The answer’s simple — we’d plant a lot of trees to offset the huge extra carbon load in the atmosphere.
Rank and file Americans would react as you suggest. The “liberal elites” would convert to Islam to make “peace”...
I hate the Yankees and all.
But I don’t want them, you know, dead. Can we must close the Stadium for a few months? Give my beloved Sox a chance?
(sorry, couldn’t help myself.)
On a more serious note.
How large would one of these things be? I ask because I often wonder if it would make more sense to try to get it up 30-40 stories in a large city. A ground blast would be bad, but most missiles and bombs are targeted to explode above a city, making the damage worse.
Would it be more practical to get this thing in an elevator and haul it up a few hundred feet above street level?
It could happen, but a widespread anthrax attack is much more likely.
We’re much more likely to see a dirty bomb attack than a nuclear attack. Much easier to pull off, and, if large enough, could cause as many casualties as a nuclear attack.
Improvised?
I don't think you can call a 10kt nuke improvised. But maybe that is being nit picky.
Anyway...maybe someone hopes that there are some "no bid" response contracts in case something like this happens or else the response debacle we see in Haiti will seem coordinated and competent in comparison.
In the book (Sum of All Fears), the UA got greedy and tried to convert a fission bomb into a fusion bomb ... the fission part was fairly "small", and the fusion part fizzled. We can't count on the UA being stupid or greedy.
....this Unexpected attack....
How many above ground nuclear detonations were conducted in nevada during the 50’s an 60’s ?.....
Maybe I missed it?
To: sten
Rank and file Americans would react as you suggest. The “liberal elites” would convert to Islam to make “peace”...
———————————————And you think that hasn’t already happened?
Katie Couric buys her daughters Islamic alarm clocks. MSNBC owned by GE who supported Iran supporting attacks on our soldiers in Iraq.
Hasan is known and not stopped one step along the way.
Islamic terrorists are given V.I.P treatment while our troops are sued and brought to court martial..
Not allowed to win in Afghanistan...
Our congress comes out and tells us, it has been infiltrated.
The Pentagon tells us they have been infiltrated.
The White House...
The CIA
FBI
Obama now bows to mayors. But she did declare an official CAIR day in Florida.
CAIR, Coucil of American Islamic Relations.
Ever seen Obama bow to a Christian? Or mention a Christian holiday?
Terrorists seem to go for crude attacks like bombs. They are easy to make and execute. Nuclear bombs have too much risk in detection and failure, plus they are costly. They may be the Holy Grail of terrorism but I just don’t see a successful nuclear attack on the US.
No, no, no. A dirty bomb is NOT a nuclear device. Nowhere near. The difference is that a nuclear device MAKES all the contamination through the fission of the uranium or plutonium when it explodes. A dirty bomb on the other hand only spreads whatever activity is present in the bomb to begin with.
The most damage a dirty bomb does is emotional distress to the fearful populace, followed by a ‘pain-in-the-butt’ decontamination effort.
There will be no ‘square miles of uninhabitable city’.
The limiting factor is activity. How much and what kind will you gather together to be dispersed by an explosion?
An alpha emitter? if it were me, I would do that. Alpha spreads easily and is difficult to decon. But as a hazard, it is minimal, only if ingested.
Gamma? This is a whole body exposure problem, but difficult to shield, which also increases weight of the device. ALSO, since you have all the activity in one spot, the dose rates to you, the bomber could well be dangerous. Trade offs are necesssary for this approach.
Dirty bombs are a ‘hassle’. That is all.
Fair enough... add “publicly convert to Islam” to my statement and we’ll be in agreement.
...a nuked NYC.
Make it San Freakcisco, instead, so us non-elites can be less upset.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.