Posted on 01/25/2010 3:09:34 PM PST by blam
Prechter: Gold To Fall 40% From Here
Joe Weisenthal
Jan. 25, 2010, 3:31 PM
Elliot Wave maven Robert Prechter is usually a dollar bull (despite being a gloomer), and as such he usually dislikes gold.
According to Reuters, Prechter is out with a new call on gold. Specifically, he expects it to fall 40%, saying the metal "is over-owned and overvalued and is about to resume a bear market, if [it] hasn't already."
[snip]
(Go to the site to see the video)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I’ll take that bet.
Oh, that means the dollar will strengthen on the world money market by 40%? What is he smoking? Not while Obama and his pinko-socialist cronies are in control....
Fox News sure has a lot of Gold commercials.
Oversold? And the dollar is going to just come alive all of a sudden? Don’t think so.
Putz it babe.
We have a Marxist government now in the USA to boot , which the American people are just now discovering, and you think that will weaken gold?
Buahahahahahaha!
Gold may go down in the short term but it will not stay down.
This is a set up if I ever saw one.
Predict the fall getting investors to have a sort of panic, then buy like hell when the price is down..
You know the skit. He knows dam well what the reality is and is trying to cash in.
There are, literally, TONS of gold out there that are being intentionally held back from market, and like any other currency manipulation, a little sudden flooding of the market brings about a wholly disproportionate escape from gold ownership by the small holders. There is not now a “free market” in gold transactions, but only an artificial bidding up of prices in light of market scares intentionally put out there by knowledgable people.
A much more true estimate of the relative value of gold - an ounce of gold should be about enough to buy a fine gentleman’s suit. This has held roughly true for centuries.
I am taking that bet. Yes Prechter has made some great calls but over the past 30 years he has had some spectacular failures and he’s been wrong on gold for ten years in a row. I can follow the explanation of wave theory but will not use it myself. I do understand that wave theory is based on a free market with a hard currency. We have neither any more and I believe that the explosion of credit and derivatives and the skulduggery going on with major bank shorts makes wave theory as outmoded as Karl Marx’s labor theory of value. I do note that almost every analyst I trust says that there will be a fall in the price of gold just before the final collapse of the dollar but there will be no physical gold for sale at those prices.
That's what you would expect to see at a market top.
Exactly. Prechter used to be the leading Eliot Wave prognosticator. But he’s been wrong, as you say, for at least ten years.
FWIW, I think gold is currently on a sell signal, and I don’t know how far it’s going to go down. But for the longer term, it’s certainly a bull market. Probably a bit more down from here over the course of this week, and then we’ll see. But it’s been in a secular bull since 2000, and that’s likely to last until around 2020.
Very true. An ounce of gold had also traditionally bought a new current production Colt Single Action Army at the street price. On that basis gold is slightly undervalued at $1099 vs $1250.
Prechter has been spectacularly wrong for 20 years. Use him as a contrary indicator.
On the other hand, if gold does drop, as I think it will, my DZZ should do quite well.
Prolly means someone has found a mountain of it. Time to search around.
I am taking that bet. Yes Prechter has made some great calls but over the past 30 years he has had some spectacular failures and he’s been wrong on gold for ten years in a row.
I remember in the mid 1980’s that Prechter was forecasting gold to drop to $150 per ounce. Never happened.
Not in our lifetimes. He must just be looking at the always-interesting price of $666 or so where gold goofed around for many weeks and is guessing (i.e. using after-the-fact EW methodology) that it will be important again.
I can see gold dropping more than $100 or so from here in the next month or so ONLY if the stock market in general gets flushed on a panic reaction to another Obama get-tough-with-the-banks speech.
And if he was really in the business of helping his readers, he would have issued an emergency recommendation to sell and/or get short two weeks ago when Cramer was hitting the buy-buy-buy button.
I could make Gold go down 40%. All I’d have to do is buy some. :-)
Ok. So where does one go about finding these fine gentlemen? Bada Bing Bada Bang!
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