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Posted on 01/18/2010 5:08:27 PM PST by Arec Barrwin
What Will Happen in Massachusetts on Tuesday? An Analysis By Scott Rasmussen
Monday, January 18, 2010
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that Republican challenger Scott Brown had closed the gap in Massachusetts to single digits. Prior to that release, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties… was that Martha Coakley was a lock,” writes The Politico’s Ben Smith, adding, “It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.”
A week later, the shock continued as our final poll in the race showed that Brown had pulled to within two points of Coakley. In fact, among those who were certain they would vote, Brown was up by two.
At that time, Brown was leading among political moderates, middle-income voters and those over 40. He enjoyed a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters and even picked up a modest number of Democrats. By every measure, Brown supporters were more engaged in the race and more excited about their candidate. Nothing that we have seen over the past week appears to have changed those dynamics.
The health care issue is front and center as the reason Brown has gained traction. While the plan enjoys more support in Massachusetts than it does nationwide, those with strong opinions on the subject are more likely to oppose the bill than support it. Perhaps the single most shocking thing about the Massachusetts race is the fact that a Republican is running against the president’s health care effort and winning in the Kennedys' home state.
Brown’s position on health care has been supplemented by his positions on national security issues, including the Christmas Day terrorist bomber. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly want the man who tried to blow up a U.S. airliner tried in a military setting as a terrorist.
Over the past week, the battle in Massachusetts has been fully engaged by both parties. Brown raised over a million dollars in a single day last week and has reportedly continued to raise large amounts of money every day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, labor unions and other Democratic organizations are pouring money into the race. A handful of polls came out over the weekend suggesting that Brown was in the lead, and news reports indicate that both campaigns' internal polls are showing the same thing.
Since the last Rasmussen Reports poll, the Coakley campaign has had to endure a number of missteps ranging from the candidate’s debate performance and comments about Afghanistan to her mistaken assertion that Boston Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankees' fan.
While those items may have hurt, the Coakley team got some good news as well. First, the heightened interest in the race may serve to increase turnout among Democrats who have been fairly apathetic about their candidate and the campaign. Second, President Obama himself showed up in Boston to rally the base on Sunday.
Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. That’s why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.
That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
Why do I get this sick feeling that there is a raw FBI file somewhere???
LOL!!!
Reads as if Rasmussen received a call from every dem politician in the country.
LLS
He should be honest enough to tell us that he is afraid of posting polls showing any Democrat losing.
This has been posted several times today. Rasmussen is a fraud and using old data (pre-debate) to bolster a claim that it is tight (Coakley +2) is simply pathetic. He is purposely being misleading and all of the pro-Rasmussen Freepers better not forget this.
LOL
What prognostication? He basically just said “If you invade Persia, a great empire will be destroyed.” If Coakley wins, he can say “Yep, I called it—more Democrats showed up.” If Brown wins, he can say “Yep, I called it—Coakley was cooked unless more Democrats showed up.”
LOL
“It ain’t over until it’s over.” Yogi Berra
In the end it all comes down to people actually going to the polls and actually voting.
Yeah, I have been following intrade for more than 48 hours, and I noticed the BIG changes starting during the broadcast time slot of the Golden GLobe Awards last nite, roughly 8pm-11pm/
But they were NOWHERE near what you just screenshot.
I would bet also, someone like Soros would have found a way to make money off this. Would be interested to learn if one of his surrogates has an account there , but probably impossible. This kind of thing, after all, is a specialty of his.
Could the Rats use the polls to determine how many Fake votes they need to produce. Ras not giving them the information...(the time to produce the ballots must be done the night before the election to stuff the box in time......)
Hmmmm? /foil
“but is nervous about what it said, so spiked it.My guess”
That’s been my opinion...
Specials are notoroiously hard to poll, and he doesn’t want to stake his reputation on this one, especially after NY-23.
He’s taking the easy out, and frankly, with the amount of money, dirty tricks, and fraud the Dems are pulling out, I don’t blame him.
Posted in Breaking News by BlessedbyGod at 3:03 today.
Sure took a long time to say nothing.
Or Rasmussen’s been compromised.
And this is the only excuse for the lemming-like (despite the bribes) movement of the Dems.
When Brown arrives on the scene(oh, please, please, please), it will soon become apparent which Repubs have dirty little secrets which make them susceptible to the full court press by the machine.
It might rain. Unless it doesn’t. You can take that to the bank.
I think our first suspicions of him back tracking on his polls after the dimwits said he was favoring conservatives last week were true. I think the guy is scared of what the dimwits might do to him. That would also account for the small rise, in Ras polls, of Bozo's numbers while other polls had his numbers slip even more.
He thinks if he keeps his mouth shut they won't blame him if Brown wins, IMO.
In such a fast moving enviroment, the latest data is the only thing that counts.
How the heck is Rasmussen able to find the time to do this poll of what the rest of the country wants to happen in Massachusetts tomorrow, yet can't find the time to do a poll in Massachusetts of the US Senate elections tomorrow?
Weak!
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