Texas to Gain Four US House Seats Under Reapportionment, Analysis Shows

National Journal ^ | Dec. 23 | Richard E. Cohen

[BP2]

With the Census Bureau's release today of its annual population estimates for the 50 states, the final projections of next year's decennial census reveal further details of the likely winners and losers. Here are some highlights based on the analysis by Polidata, a demographic and political research firm.

• Of the 11 House seats that would switch among the states as a result of the projections, Texas would gain four. The remaining seats would be distributed one each to seven states -- four in the West (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Washington) and three in the South (Florida, Georgia and South Carolina).

• Of the states losing seats, only Ohio would suffer multiple losses, with two. The remaining states that are projected to have downsized House delegations include four in the Northeast (Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania), four in the Midwest (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota), plus Louisiana.

• Using the complex formula for apportioning the House, Missouri would be on the cusp with the 435th seat and Minnesota is listed for the mythical 436th seat -- by a margin of roughly 10,000 persons each. Those states, consequently, will be among those states with the most at stake to assure a full count of their residents.

• Compared to similar projections a year ago of "winner" states, Washington has replaced Oregon in gaining a House seat, while Arizona would gain one seat instead of two, and North Carolina would gain none. California and Missouri no longer would lose a House seat.

[SeattleBruce]

I could truly see a realignment happening among the states...and the blue states will continue to die (MI, CALI, MA, NY, etc.) Hate to be uncompassionate - but tough beans if they do. I will support Constitutional loyalty over some supposed loyalty to the historic cities and states in the good ‘ol USA.

[deport]

FYI, if those districts are along the Mexican border then they WILL go Democrat.

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Don’t rule out locations like DFW/Houston/ etc. as being in line for additional districts. Are at least their will be more districts touching their population. One of the most important things in Texas is to maintain control of the state legislature as they will be the ones to redistrict the state legislature. Locals will remember 2000 in this regard.

[SeattleBruce]

Most of them are convinced that Texas is a gun-totin’, red meat eatin’, rebel flag wavin’ state, packed wall to wall with tobacco chewin’, Bush lovin’ right-wingers.

I do all I can to reinforce that stereotype ;-)

I just heard a news report that 478,000 Americans relocated to Texas in the last 12 months, and that Texas is the fastest growing state in the union.

I do hope that most of those nearly half-million people are at least center-right in their politics.
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To tell you how bad Bush derangement brainwashing has been: with all Bush’s flaws, the one item you listed which probably makes them most incensed: Bush lovin’ - LOL!

In many ways, that’s funny...we can reinforce the stereotypes, as you say, while populating a strong Southern portion (all the way across to AZ) of the country with dedicated Constitutional Conservatives.

Hear, hear!

[catfish1957]

Texas to Gain Four US House Seats Under Reapportionment, Analysis Shows

Till secession, then we will hand them back. (wish)

[SeattleBruce]

Till secession, then we will hand them back. (wish)
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10th Amendment Revolution!

[phillyfanatic]

It is really important that the GOP unites with Reagan Dems, Libertarians and Indies to make sure Legislatures are in their column. Redistricting has always been a Dem way of gerrymandering safe districts and always, minority voters seem to benefit. At least the GOP should get some fairly even districts with which to compete. If any business person votes for a Dem in 2010 after this Care, Cap and Trade mess and the coming amnesty, that person should be tarred and feathered.

[Windflier]

...we can reinforce the stereotypes, as you say, while populating a strong Southern portion (all the way across to AZ) of the country with dedicated Constitutional Conservatives.

Liberals above the Mason-Dixon line have a somewhat trained-in cultural aversion to the Deep South, and even some parts of the South-West. I very much hope that these areas of the country grow ever more conservative in the coming years.

I have a feeling that geographic lines are slowly and quietly being drawn (maybe even unconsciously) between the right and left, along the old historic battle lines of the Civil War era.

[Theodore R.]

TX is not nearly as conservative as other Americans think. Democrats here are waiting to win, and they are surprised how long the wait has been, but they are organized and ready to “rule” us again. Few people can be as overbearing as a TX Democrat. I guess maybe a WV Democrat or a ME Republican could be as bad.

[DallasSun]

I agree...with all.It amazes me the way so many are so convinced that Texas is conservative. I have lived here for 63 years. Involved in politics for over 30 years. Texas is not a conservative state. And you are right about the Democrats waiting...biding their time.

[smokingfrog]

No wonder the WH wants to take over the census.