Posted on 12/23/2009 10:16:54 AM PST by BP2
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With the Census Bureau's release today of its annual population estimates for the 50 states, the final projections of next year's decennial census reveal further details of the likely winners and losers. Here are some highlights based on the analysis by Polidata, a demographic and political research firm. • Of the 11 House seats that would switch among the states as a result of the projections, Texas would gain four. The remaining seats would be distributed one each to seven states -- four in the West (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Washington) and three in the South (Florida, Georgia and South Carolina). • Of the states losing seats, only Ohio would suffer multiple losses, with two. The remaining states that are projected to have downsized House delegations include four in the Northeast (Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania), four in the Midwest (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota), plus Louisiana. • Using the complex formula for apportioning the House, Missouri would be on the cusp with the 435th seat and Minnesota is listed for the mythical 436th seat -- by a margin of roughly 10,000 persons each. Those states, consequently, will be among those states with the most at stake to assure a full count of their residents. • Compared to similar projections a year ago of "winner" states, Washington has replaced Oregon in gaining a House seat, while Arizona would gain one seat instead of two, and North Carolina would gain none. California and Missouri no longer would lose a House seat. |
What in the world are you basing that on???????
You are right. Alot of hispanics vote republican. But then I see posts on here about mexicans and “wetbacks” and it is no wonder most do not vote republican. I do not blame them. So much of this is ignorance and I have no patience with it.
Is the data at http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.html?
I get TX +3 and MN at 0.
Yes, I used “the method of equal proportions.”
MN 8 gets the 434th seat.
5266214 * sqrt(1/(8*7)) = 703727.
WA 10 gets the 435th seat.
6664195 * sqrt(1/(10*9)) = 702467.
OH 17 would be the 436th seat.
11542645 * sqrt(1/(17*16)) = 699875
FL 27 would be the 437th, OR 6 would be 438th,
TX 36 would actually be the 439th seat.
24782302 * sqrt(1/(36*35)) = 698162.
“I recall New York has zero Republican Representatives right now, so a reapportionment loss in New York would be a direct Democrat loss.”
Same with MA, only Dems can lose...yay!
Husted I think reflected the "insider" view, which is play it safe. But that means you can never really get serious change, because you'll never have enough of a majority to insulate the few RINOS from their constituents so they can vote the right way.
It's like 3d and long in football: the conservative runs up the middle and punts; the winner goes for the 15-yard pass and knows sometimes he'll get sacked and sometimes he'll throw an INT but the only way to win is to go for it.
I’m guessing they’ll all be around Houston and other urban centers, probably not, say, the Hill Country.
Forget “safe” districts, and EXPECIALLY do away with ones drawn especially for blacks.
I’d rather lose seats if it can mean we could get rid of our illegal aliens. We would be a much stronger state for it, even with fewer seats.
4/4 of those seats is mathematically impossible for Republicans. I would think the GOP would be lucky to get one. That would change the delegation from the current 20-12 R to 21-15 R.
Is Peter King of NY no longer there? NY is irrelevant to the Republican Party, much as so many other states as well.
Most of the people leaving or who have left my home state are working people sick to death of the taxes and nonsense. Most of said folks are conservative.
My own family: father, step-mom and brother are leaving for South Carolina quite soon. Thats three conservative votes taken from Massachusetts but three gained for South Carolina.
During the Summer I worked a part time job in which many people came in selling off items before their move from MA. The vast majority were going to SC and every single one of them I spoke to were conservative. All of them.
Here’s what someone else from TX says.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2413890/posts?page=23#23
I’m just saying that the Southern more conservative states are getting more Reps...also bodes well for electoral votes for POTUS regardless of the specific constituency of particular CDs, right???????
The vast majority were going to SC and every single one of them I spoke to were conservative. All of them.
+++++++++++++++
Wow, that’s quite a testimonial. Out of curiosity, how did you get the 35,000 conservatives leaving the USSR MA figure?
Absolutely it does. Thank you for the link. We can always hope the new districts will bode well for us. I just know Texas is not nearly as conservative as some people think it is. But yes, I am going to go with this being good news.
He said the party had organized a mass mailing to registered republicans, vast numbers of the mailing were returned and then the party decided to look into who was still in the state. The number of people registered with the Republican party who were no longer living in MA was 35,000. A staggering figure.
That was two years ago and things have gotten much worse here. I can only imagine how many have left at this point. I've met any number of people who while Conservative never registered with the Republicans so the exact number of Conservatives lost from MA is unknown.
pretty crazy around here.
This is very bad news for Obama 2012 and great news for Sarah Palin. This makes it that much easier for her to win. Those 3 or 4 extra Texas electoral votes are already nailed down in her column, as well as the other gains in the South and West.
The Dems will have a very hard time winning Presidential Elections with this new electoral make up.
Even if Democrats were able to take 3 of the 4 new Congressional seats, the main impact would be on the Presidential election. Texas as a whole will almost certainly remain a Republican state and in a close election, 3 additional electoral votes could make the difference. Looking at the states involved, the projected changes could net the republican candidate as many as 9 additional electoral votes.
Most of the people leaving or who have left my home state are working people sick to death of the taxes and nonsense. Most of said folks are conservative.
Well, I moved from California to Texas four years ago, and brought two more conservative votes to this state (with four more to come, once they're of voting age). I know of quite a few other conservative refugees who've fled here from blue states.
I've also seen a few liberal transplants pack it in and flee to bluer states after living here a while.
That being said, I also know that some libs have succeeded in planting roots here in Texas, but my sense it that we outnumber them.
I have heard liberals say they would rather starve than have to live in Texas.
Not sure how much that means, though, considering the new mayor of Houston.
I am the sole conservative Republican in my rather large and very liberal family. I'm also the only one who lives in Texas.
Most of them are convinced that Texas is a gun-totin', red meat eatin', rebel flag wavin' state, packed wall to wall with tobacco chewin', Bush lovin' right-wingers.
I do all I can to reinforce that stereotype ;-)
I just heard a news report that 478,000 Americans relocated to Texas in the last 12 months, and that Texas is the fastest growing state in the union.
I do hope that most of those nearly half-million people are at least center-right in their politics.
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