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Tempting the tipping point : Can the U.S. escape a fiscal debt death spiral?
Washington Times ^ | 12/23/2009 | Richard Rahn

Posted on 12/23/2009 7:53:40 AM PST by SeekAndFind

If governments continue to pile on more and more debt, when will they reach the tipping point? The Greeks appear to be close to the tipping point, and it is only a matter of time before other European countries, and eventually even the United States, begin their fiscal death spiral.

The Greek government's unwillingness to make the hard choices necessary to put its fiscal house in order in the past few weeks has caused investors to demand a 2.5 percent premium on its government-issued Eurobonds over those issued by the German government.

First, a little background. Eurozone governments have a contractual obligation not to incur annual deficits of more than 3 percent, yet the deficit forecast for 2010 for all major Eurozone economies is far in excess of that number. Greece (12.2 percent), Ireland (14.7 percent) and the U.K. (at 12.9 percent) are even in double digits. As can be seen in the accompanying table, the average Eurozone deficit is projected to be 6.9 percent, more than double the agreed-upon limit.

Greece has reached a crisis stage and, as noted, its debt is now selling at a deep discount compared to other EU countries. Ireland has a bigger deficit, but its total net government debt is only 38 percent, as contrasted with Greece's 95 percent. But the Irish, unlike the Greeks, are instituting a credible plan to cut government spending and get their economy back on the growth track.

The fundamental problem with most of the world's largest economies is that they have allowed government spending to grow faster than economic growth, which can only lead to long-run economic disaster.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: cwii; debt; deficit; thecomingdepression

1 posted on 12/23/2009 7:53:41 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

AUTHOR NOTES :

The Obama administration and the Congress are in a headlong rush to push the country over the fiscal tipping point. The fiscal tipping point is the point where the interest that premium bond buyers are demanding to compensate them for the risk of default and/or accelerating inflation causes the total interest cost to be so high that the government is borrowing just to pay the interest. This is equivalent to a family being so far in debt that it is borrowing just to pay the interest on its mortgage, credit cards, etc.

The proposed health care plan and the environmental cap-and-trade scheme will add trillions of dollars to the U.S. debt over the next few years and, in all likelihood, soon will drive the total debt burden to well over 100 percent of GDP. Even if the administration were to tax the “rich” at 100 percent of their incomes, there would still not be enough money to pay for all of these spending schemes.

The following should be known to most members of Congress. The size of the U.S. government is already well over the welfare and economic growth-maximizing rate. Taxes on upper-income Americans are well above the revenue-maximizing rate. Thus, for those in the political class to further increase the size of government and government debt as a percentage of GDP is grossly irresponsible. It is almost as if they had a death wish for the country.


2 posted on 12/23/2009 7:54:20 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
I pray that we're heading for a major paradigm shift and that the world will wake up and say "Government should manage the national court system and provide for common defense. That's it. We need about 4% of GNP to do that. The rest of the money can stay in private hands."

That's the paradigm shift the world needs. But I don't really think it's coming.

3 posted on 12/23/2009 7:58:54 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (Macbeth is ripe for shaking, and the powers above put on their instruments.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Can the U.S. escape a fiscal debt death spiral?

Question should be "will" not "can"?

Putting this country on sound economic footing is as easy as common sense (even if it will take some time to accomplish it). That said, do politicians have the courage to stop pandering and do what has to be done?

4 posted on 12/23/2009 8:02:12 AM PST by SonOfDarkSkies (Al Qaeda only hijacked commercial aircraft...Obama hijacked the White House!)
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To: SeekAndFind
Yes it can be restored to a constitutional America. When we really take a look at what has happened we find maybe a few thousands ringleaders of King Obama crew, and if they are removed, the problem would be start in recovery. This includes all of power, like the MSM heads, Union heads, ACORN heads, judicial system, educational system, and clean up Washington. Kick the bums out one way or another.

The biggest problem is what to do with at least 1/3 of sick Americans that support communism because it feeds them. But without leadership down goes the their corrupt ship.

Hummmm. Wow! We got some WORK to do.

5 posted on 12/23/2009 8:04:25 AM PST by Logical me (Oh, well!!!)
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To: ClearCase_guy
"Government should manage the national court system and provide for common defense. That's it. We need about 4% of GNP to do that. The rest of the money can stay in private hands."

Toss in "secure the National borders" and I'm right with you.

L

6 posted on 12/23/2009 8:05:12 AM PST by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: Lurker

And take care of the old folks that paid into the system all their lives. Ad that one too.(not talking about the rich)


7 posted on 12/23/2009 8:07:59 AM PST by refermech
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To: SeekAndFind
At what point will the interest on the debt become larger than the rest of the budget?

It seems that 0bama wants to avoid that by greatly expanding spending, and thus, the budget.

8 posted on 12/23/2009 8:11:44 AM PST by The Sons of Liberty (Pork Eating CRUSADER - FUBO! Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin)
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To: refermech

Ping


9 posted on 12/23/2009 8:15:56 AM PST by Jack Black
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To: Logical me
Can the U.S. escape a fiscal debt death spiral?

No. No other hegemon ever has. We aren't that exceptional, any more.
In a speech entitled "Industrial Management in a Republic," delivered in the grand ballroom of the Waldorf Astoria at New York during the 250th meeting of the National Conference Board on March 18, 1943, Henning Webb Prentis, Jr., President of the Armstrong Cork Company, had this to say:
Paradoxically enough, the release of initiative and enterprise made possible by popular self-government ultimately generates disintegrating forces from within. Again and again after freedom has brought opportunity and some degree of plenty, the competent become selfish, luxury-loving and complacent, the incompetent and the unfortunate grow envious and covetous, and all three groups turn aside from the hard road of freedom to worship the Golden Calf of economic security. The historical cycle seems to be: From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to apathy; from apathy to dependency; and from dependency back to bondage once more.

10 posted on 12/23/2009 8:17:32 AM PST by flowerplough ( Pennsylvania today - New New Jersey meets North West Virginia.)
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To: SeekAndFind

“It is almost as if they had a death wish for the country.”

Almost? They’ve practically finished the job of destroying the USA. The communists were right. We will be destroyed from within by our very own communists.


11 posted on 12/23/2009 8:31:23 AM PST by griswold3 (You think health care is expensive now? Just wait till it's FREE!)
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To: flowerplough

I think the crash is inevitable. the job for patriots is to prepare to survive it, and to thrive on the other side of it. The current system is hopelessly corrupt and ‘saving’ it would mean codemming future generations to living in the toxic, degenerate, degraded society that we see rising up around us. Better to force the failure so that everyone can see that lies don’t work.

How we deal with the guilty in our midst is the real question. The Obama block, public employees, Acornistas, MS-NBC hosts, public employee unionists .... Red States will need to carefully consider the most humanne way to effect the political cleansing that is required.


12 posted on 12/23/2009 8:37:16 AM PST by Jack Black
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To: Jack Black

I have been trying to find stories of Patriotic Germans who hunkered down during Hitlers reign and made it through that storm.
I think it would be interesting to try to build another government right now. Obamoid and his minions will fall and we would be more ready for the aftermath.


13 posted on 12/23/2009 9:13:38 AM PST by Paytriot (Never be afraid to try anything new, Remeber amateurs built the Ark, professionals built the Titanic)
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To: Paytriot
Great metaphor to live by in these O'hit'ler'ama times.

I don't like it, but it's not as bad as they had it I'm sure.

I'm hunkered down and gettin' by pretty gut', I guess it's an inherited art form.

14 posted on 12/23/2009 9:25:37 AM PST by norraad ("What light!">Blues Brothers)
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To: SeekAndFind
Usually before the tax rate hits 100%, the tax rate is capped by capping the tax collectors.


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

15 posted on 12/23/2009 9:56:37 AM PST by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: Jack Black
Red States will need to carefully consider the most humanne way to effect the political cleansing that is required.

"Git 'er done" is, I believe, the proper sentiment.


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

16 posted on 12/23/2009 10:04:12 AM PST by The Comedian (Evil can only succeed if good men don't point at it and laugh.)
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To: Logical me

Related thread:

What Good Can a Handgun Do Against An Army?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2312894/posts


17 posted on 12/27/2009 1:33:10 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2 million for Sarah Palin: What will you do?)
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