Posted on 12/13/2009 7:45:18 PM PST by nwrep
Many scientific reports have shown a strong correlation between sunspot activity and global mean temperatures. The most well-known such graph is the one plotted by Friis-Christensen and Lassen. A graph derived from similar observations is shown below:
GRAPH 1:Correlation between Sunspot activity and global temperatures
It is important to note that there are small periods of anomaly in this correlation, but that the behavior returns to one of strong correlation over extended periods of time.
GRAPH 1A: Correlation between Sunspot activity and global temperatures over 10,000 years (reconstructed)
As has been recently noted by several physicists, the solar activity levels in 2009 have shown several consecutive days without a spot, indicating that the sun is at a low point of a deep solar minimum. Sunspot activity reached a peak around the year 2000, and has dropped since then.
GRAPH 2: Sunspot activity observations plotted by year:
Here is another graph showing the same activity, plotted for 3 different centuries:
GRAPH 3: Monthly Average Sunspot activity by year, from NASA
Now, NASA scientists have created simulations to predict the solar activity over the next decade. According to the scientists at the Marshall Space Flight Center, where the simulations were carried out,
"Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). We have employed several methods to determine the size of the next sunspot cycle using a technique that weights the different predictions by their reliability. [See Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann J. Geophys. Res. 104, 22,375 (1999)] Our current analysis indicates a maximum sunspot number of about 78 ± 18 for cycle 24. We then use the shape of the sunspot cycle as described by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann [Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994)] and determine a starting time for the cycle by fitting the data to produce a prediction of the monthly sunspot numbers through the next cycle. We find a starting time of March 2008 with minimum occurring in November or December 2008 and maximum in April or May 2013."
GRAPH 4:NASA Predictions of Solar Activity for the next decade
As seen from the picture, there is band of uncertainty associated with the prediction, but the average sunspot number predicted for the maxima of the next decade is around 75-80 (official prediction: 78 with an uncertainty of +/- 18).
From Graph 3 of the sunspot activity for the past 3 centuries, the last decade to show a maxima this low (significantly below 100) was 1880-1890. What the NASA prediction therefore tells us is that if the strong correlation between sunspot activity and global mean temperatures shown in Graphs 1 and 1A holds, the coming decade could be possibly the coldest decade in over a century, with temperatures not seen since the Victorian era.
Well, at least that makes sense! Keep the politics out of it and it may even be accepted as possible...
Great find. I remember some scientists placing a bet with other scientists that the world would cool precisely because of low sunspot activity. I can’t remember where I read that. Guess they are going to be richer
The sun affects climate who knew bump.
“During a live primetime climate-debate broadcasted on Danish national TV one of the participators, climate-skeptic scientist Henrik Svensmark, had a heart attack.”
[more]
You would think, that since this issue will negatively affect EVERYONE financially (except of course those in government) that government would say woah- let’s wait and see what the temperatures do i nthe next decade or two- just incase we were wrong’ but nope- they just ‘have to rush this through before it’s too late’
The warming shown in the first graph comes from the corrupt Hadley CRU. Perhaps the general outlines can be trusted, despite the revisions needed to make the temperature steadily rise. And then again, maybe they can’t...
So globull warming is fixed. good, now we don’t need any more taxes.
We seem to forget or ignore what our forefathers knew.
“It is important to note that there are small periods of anomaly in this correlation, but that the behavior returns to one of strong correlation over extended periods of time.”
The last “anomaly” is where the climate “scientists” use that trick to “hide the decline.”
It’s going to be a cold - VERY cold - decade. BTW, there’s a Freeper post re: SNOW in Australia today. That’s like snow here on June 12!
I might add that I have always argued that the Sun has more influence on climate that anything else. Of course that is almost always greeted with skepticism or denial... What the heck, I always thought that sunspots and the increase or decrease in thermal effects along with magnetic flux had more to do with global temperature than any thing man could do.
Who knows, maybe common man will be right instead of these so-called global climate scientists (or their money grabbing theories).
AGW Hoax Bump
>>climate-skeptic scientist<<
WTH?
He doesn’t believe there is climate?
What an odd phrase.
Solar activity determines our temps?? No way! Get out of town!
Someone is going to be fired for this. lol
/sarc
I'm living in Texas ... yes I will be buying blizzard suits and pac boots in anticipation of colder weather next winter.
Oh hockey sticks!
Would be great to see a little intramural food-fight between Marshall and Goddard.
NASA? Although I have long said we are entering a prolonged period of cold, having NASA say the same gives me pause.
NASA is no longer a trusted source.
You can send a get well email to Svensmark at hsv@dsri.dk
He is an advocate of the cosmoclimatology theory of climate change.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrik_Svensmark
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