The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain

The Daily Crux ^ | 11/24/09 | Porter Stansberry

[FromLori]

It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while... Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion. Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest economy. Where will the money come from?

How did we end up with so much short-term debt? Like most entities that have far too much debt - whether subprime borrowers, GM, Fannie, or GE - the U.S. Treasury has tried to minimize its interest burden by borrowing for short durations and then "rolling over" the loans when they come due. As they say on Wall Street, "a rolling debt collects no moss." What they mean is, as long as you can extend the debt, you have no problem. Unfortunately, that leads folks to take on ever greater amounts of debt… at ever shorter durations… at ever lower interest rates. Sooner or later, the creditors wake up and ask themselves: What are the chances I will ever actually be repaid? And that's when the trouble starts. Interest rates go up dramatically. Funding costs soar. The party is over. Bankruptcy is next.

When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can't pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you're a terrible credit risk. Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured.

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default. The U.S. holds gold, oil, and foreign currency in reserve. The U.S. has 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (it is the world's largest holder). That's 16,267,000 pounds. At current dollar values, it's worth around $300 billion. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that's roughly $58 billion worth of oil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign currency reserves. So altogether... that's around $500 billion of reserves. Our short-term foreign debts are far bigger.

According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in the next 12 months. So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury will have to finance at least $2 trillion worth of maturing debt in the next 12 months. That might not cause a crisis if we were still funding our national debt internally. But since 1985, we've been a net debtor to the world. Today, foreigners own 44% of all our debts, which means we owe foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months - an amount far larger than our reserves.

Keep in mind, this only covers our existing debts. The Office of Management and Budget is predicting a $1.5 trillion budget deficit over the next year. That puts our total funding requirements on the order of $3.5 trillion over the next 12 months.

So… where will the money come from? Total domestic savings in the U.S. are only around $600 billion annually. Even if we all put every penny of our savings into U.S. Treasury debt, we're still going to come up nearly $3 trillion short. That's an annual funding requirement equal to roughly 40% of GDP. Where is the money going to come from? From our foreign creditors? Not according to Greenspan-Guidotti. And not according to the Indian or the Russian central bank, which have stopped buying Treasury bills and begun to buy enormous amounts of gold. The Indians bought 200 metric tonnes this month. Sources in Russia say the central bank there will double its gold reserves.

So where will the money come from? The printing press. The Federal Reserve has already monetized nearly $2 trillion worth of Treasury debt and mortgage debt. This weakens the value of the dollar and devalues our existing Treasury bonds. Sooner or later, our creditors will face a stark choice: Hold our bonds and continue to see the value diminish slowly, or try to escape to gold and see the value of their U.S. bonds plummet.

One thing they're not going to do is buy more of our debt. Which central banks will abandon the dollar next? Brazil, Korea, and Chile. These are the three largest central banks that own the least amount of gold. None own even 1% of their total reserves in gold.

I examined these issues in much greater detail in the most recent issue of my newsletter, Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory, which we published last Friday. Coincidentally, the New York Times repeated our warnings - nearly word for word - in its paper today. (They didn't mention Greenspan-Guidotti, however... It's a real secret of international speculators.)

[gorilla_warrior]

This is good news. It looks like only default will stop the liberal fascists from borrowing us into slavery. It is time now to split the country,repudiate the debt, and assign the debt to the elite political class who created it. Repeat after me: I refuse to allow the liberal fascists to enslave my grandchildren.

[meyer]

After our gold, oil and foreign currency reserves, the only thing left is your property.

If they come for MY property, I will KILL them.

[paul51]

Don’t be silly. We are going green and this will create millions of new jobs...and the air will be clean and there will be no wars and etc. The idea of plentiful and cheap energy is so...yesterday

[paul51]

once the values hit 40% of the loans against the properties, the government (FHA) will own that also

[demsux]

Thanks in advance.

[CaliforniaCon]

RE: “All they need to do to have the cash on hand is print money, which is EXACTLY what they will do.
Get your cash outa the bank.”

******************

And put cash WHERE?????? I am too old for stock market and don’t trust it anyway. Don’t know much about gold/silver etc. or how it is purchased or even how safe THAT is.

What to do with savings???

[EBH]

Look to the Weimar to get a better idea of the game they are playing. Substitute our debts to China, Japan, the ME for the reparations Germany had to pay and how they nearly got out of having to pay them. The quote at the end is very telling too.

http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2003/germany.html

In 1920, prices plummeted around the world in a great deflation. This price and wage deflation was reinforced by the economic policies of conservative governments. Germany’s new Weimar Republic inherited the vast burden of debt and the crushing weight of reparations. Add in the fact that tax revenues were low due to the weak economy, while the outflow of payments in gold-fueled inflation.

It also quickly became apparent that Germany would be unable to meet its reparation obligations. In July 1920 the German mark plunged dramatically as the Weimar government informed the Allies it could not meet the schedule of payments, but that it would continue disbursements of coal and other natural resources. With the U.S. pressuring Britain and France to repay their own war debts, the Allies grew all the more determined that Germany pay up. France’s new premier, Raymond Poincare, accused Germany of deliberately withholding payments and trying to force the Allies to make concessions by ruining its own currency.

[paulycy]

We are going green and this will create millions of new jobs...and the air will be clean and there will be no wars and etc.

Oh. Then I, for one, fully support it.

/s

[demsux]

US Mint to suspend American Eagle gold 1-oz coins

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN2552271120091125?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=asianCurrencyNews&rpc=401

[FromLori]

Thanks lets make that linkable

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN2552271120091125?rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=asianCurrencyNews&rpc=401

Did you post it?

[Colvin]

I can see not wanting to put it into stocks. I recently ran into a group of ETF’s that are commodity based rather then stock.
An example is GLD, basically its a fund that owns gold, and you get to buy a chunk of it and can buy and sell during normal hours.
I have pulled cash out of the bank, got an ameritrade account, and purchased mainly GLD with the money.
I have done well with it, and expect it to continue doing well as long as the dollar continues to drop and central banks continue to purchase it.
Gold is traded almost around the clock, so I have had to wake up to a drop in value.
This is not advice, mearly what I have done to keep my spare change around.

[demsux]

Yup

[dennisw]

Don’t tell Obongo this might screw up his free health care program

[mo]

“You know who understands this - Sarah Palin”

Anyone can pretty well see who the globalists own on both sides of the aisle by watching their reaction to Palin.

The globalists recognize that strong American ideals are the greatest inhibition to their agenda than anything else.

an energy independent America would literally and figuratively own the world. Her Constitution and people give the globalists fits.

[FromLori]

He is either too stupid or does not care look it’s a “orderly decline”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atWoGngEpam4&pos=2

[antisocial]

BTTT

[Mister Muggles]

Yes, and the number of shares issued for GLD and other gold etfs far exceeds the amount of actual physical gold reserves held by COMEX, so the entire PM etf thing is just another Wall Street, three card Monty screw job. Trade PM etfs all you want, but WTSHTF, don't think you'll be able to redeem them or use them to demand delivery of physical gold; you'll be left holding worthless paper.

Google: Comex. gold price manipulation.

http://www.fgmr.com/where-is-the-etfs-gold.html

Long read, but here's the money quote:

"People who might have otherwise bought physical gold coins or bars, but wanted the same thing with more convenience, could be misled into thinking that they are buying physical gold by investing in the shares of GLD. But given GLD's loose custodial controls, there is no certainty that the investor is actually buying gold bullion in the form of an exchange-traded security. They mayinstead only be buying paper (i.e., a promise to deliver physical metal, rather than the metal itself) because there is no possibility by independent auditing or other means to substantiate that the gold supposedly owned by GLD and stored in the BoE and other vaults (other than HSBC's vault) really exists. This mechanism thus provides the central banks managing gold's price with a tool to divert into paper promises the money coming from investors who otherwise think they are buying physical metal, thereby enabling these central banks to relieve the upward pressure we have been seeing on the gold price. Therefore, if you are intending to buy physical gold bullion, do not buy GLD.

[dennisw]

USD in

— orderly decline like Obama and the Fed want?
-— disorderly decline snowballing downhill which has me scared?
-— or dollar surge as carry trade reverses?

I would love to see a USD surge but it’s driving me nuts see au rise each day

[FromLori]

If they did not want it to decline they would cut spending so yes but another thing is how much of your wealth is going with the decline. I think maybe what they are doing could backfire and cause the disorderly decline. I hope I am wrong.

“I believe deeply that it’s very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar. We bear special responsibility for trying to make sure that we are implementing policy in the U.S. that will sustain confidence not just among American investors and savers but investors around the world that the U.S. will fix its budgetary problems as its economy improves.” - Tim Geithner

Sure Tim

[Colvin]

I redeemed some today.