Posted on 11/19/2009 1:22:35 PM PST by FromLori
Glum trader who missed most of the upside is now convinced the market will only go down for the rest of the year.
The Dow is down over a hundred points today and it's making professional traders nervous.
We spoke to a friend this morning at a large prop trading desk inside an investment bank and we’ve never heard him so bleak. He says that all the equity traders on his desk think the market will do nothing but go down for the rest of the year.
“We’re all waiting for the market to crack. And it looks today like it has cracked. We’ve had all this upward momentum with no volume. But now that thin buying up has gone. The only question in my mind is whether it’s a slowly deflating balloon or whether we’ll go into freefall,” he said.
Make of that what you will. Maybe it’s a contrarian indicator. After all, very few of these prop trading types believed in the rally going all the way back to March. Maybe the Wall Street traders are now contrarian indicators.
ping and related
Wait’ll the Monday after black Friday.
Yeah, the biggest rally of three lifetimes, and it’s never enough.
The propaganada is as thick as I have ever seen it.
Usually, all the shorts have to do is to think to themselves “this is it!, it’s finally going to blow” and the market runs them over.
When the day comes that it *does* crack, there won’t be any shorts left to catch it...either for themselves to profit from, or for the longs who will be smoked.
What it’s been like shorting the market this past 6-8 months:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K5-elYuPfM&feature=rec-LGOUT-exp_stronger_r2%20-HM
For the market to go down the last couple of the months of the year is normal, isn’t it? Been a while since I was in the market but that’s tax selling season.
Not saying the market won’t correct or won’t even go down significantly. But where would people put the money they take out? Cash, with negative returns? Treasuries, with negative returns if the dollar keeps crashing? Gold? Real Estate? Wealth cannot be stored in a vacuum. It has to be in something. Everyone is nervous. There is always whiskey, guns, ammo and food. But you cannot tie up significant wealth that way.
Don’t forget water too.
And lead may be worth more than gold in some cases!
What is wrong with putting it in bonds ?
Yes, you may only make 1-2% but it is better than losing 20% in another correction. My 2 cents.
Depends on the bond, my good man. I certainly don’t want to get whipsawed with long government bonds when interest rates increase.
It will soon be outlawed or designated as racist to use the term black Friday.
Imagine how racist it was for people to lose all that money today!
Obama’s remarks this week were the clue, the hint, or as I said here a freaking shout!
BEIJING, Nov. 18 (UPI) — U.S. President Barack Obama Wednesday warned growing national debt could undermine public confidence and “could actually lead to a double-dip recession.”
Folks it is here! It is no longer here it comes, it has arrived on the tarmac. China told 0bama to f***-off.
Yep. And let's pray that it's really a Black Friday (as in, "in the black") as opposed to a Red Friday.
I've been keeping a close eye on California real estate in a very desirable coastal area, where the asking price for a mobile home in a park is often along the lines of a quarter of a million dollars.
Most think the market had hit the bottom six months ago or so because it came up a bit and has been holding steady since the end of summer. But day by day, bit by bit, dollar by dollar ... the prices are dropping again.
As Bette Davis said: "Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy night."
That is so true I forgot about that but articles everywhere were saying how he undermined the confidence with his mouth. Thank you for reminding us.
Actually the market closed down 93.87 for the day. Do you ever get tired of doom and gloom?
So he didn't see the upside coming, or was in denial about it while it's been going on, but now his crystal ball is working?
A downward swing of 100 points is not all that unusual. Neither is an upward swing of 100+. Closing down on a Friday does not mean the market is collapsing. It means it will be UP Monday.
Funny, you never see stories like this when the market goes up 150 points in a day.
lol obviously I don’t get tired of it I see it as the reality we live in.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/18/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5700582.shtml
Tax Stock Trades say Democrats!
That goes a long way in helping explain it too.
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