Maine split on gay marriage question (48% for,48% against,%5 undecided)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com ^ | October 20, 2009 | www.publicpolicypolling.com

[Maelstorm]

Raleigh, N.C. – Two weeks out from election day Maine voters are divided right down the middle when it comes to whether they will reject the state’s law allowing same sex couples to marry. 48% say they will vote to over turn the law while 48% say they will vote to keep it with only 4% of the electorate still undecided. Opinion on the issue predictably breaks heavily along party lines. 74% of Republicans are planning to vote yes while only 25% of Democrats are. Independents may end up deciding which way it goes- presently 50% of them support rejecting the law with 44% in opposition. Older voters are strongest in their support of cutting off gay marriage. 54% are in support with 40% opposed. Senior citizens can often dominate the electorate in low turnout elections so the ultimate fate of this measure may lie in how many younger people get out to the polls and vote. There is a strong gender gap on the issue with 53% of men but only 43% of women wanting to reject the law. It’s also interesting to note that while white voters oppose undoing the law by a thin 47-45 margin, nonwhite voters in the state support rejection by a 55-35 margin, creating the overall tie. “The fate of Question 1 is going to be decided by which side does a better job of mobilizing their supporters to get out and vote,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state know where they stand on the issue and now it’s just an issue of who shows up.” PPP surveyed 1,130 likely voters from October 16th to 19th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

[Maelstorm]

It looks highly likely that the law will be rejected and marriage between a man and a woman once again be the law of the land of Maine. The voters who will vote Tuesday will be mostly older voters and Republican. Independents are also clearly in the camp of rejecting the law. This will be another defeat for the radical gay agenda.

[Clemenza]

Agreed, but we will at the very least have gay marriage in all but the most rural-dominated states in 15 years, and will likely have it at a national level in 20.

[NurdlyPeon]

In every state where the people have had a voice in the matter, gay “marriage” has been defeated.

[DeusExMachina05]

Your lips to gods ears. You should see what is going on with this situation...

HREF=”http://www.bangordailynews.com/detail/127393.html";>Link to the BDN</a>

[jmaroneps37]

A tie this close shouldn’t be a problem. Gay “marriage” polls always under poll and the antis get stronger as the vote gets closer. Even in deep blue Maine it should pass 53 /47. How it does in the expected court challenge is a different story.

[Maelstorm]

You are wrong. We are going to turn it back. The fight isn’t over even though you seem to wish it to be so.

[fieldmarshaldj]

We should’ve preemptively gotten a Constitutional Amendment passed. The fact that we’ve become so sick and twisted a society where same-sex marriage is a possibility that this is even necessary to pass such a law to protect marriage shows how close we are to losing our country.

[SandRat]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 20, 2009

INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Maine split on gay marriage question

Raleigh, N.C. – Two weeks out from election day Maine voters are divided right down the middle when it comes to whether they will reject the state’s law allowing same sex couples to marry.

48% say they will vote to over turn the law while 48% say they will vote to keep it with only 4% of the electorate still undecided.

Opinion on the issue predictably breaks heavily along party lines. 74% of Republicans are planning to vote yes while only 25% of Democrats are. Independents may end up deciding which way it goes- presently 50% of them support rejecting the law with 44% in opposition.

Older voters are strongest in their support of cutting off gay marriage. 54% are in support with 40% opposed. Senior citizens can often dominate the electorate in low turnout elections so the ultimate fate of this measure may lie in how many younger people get out to the polls and vote.

There is a strong gender gap on the issue with 53% of men but only 43% of women wanting to reject the law. It’s also interesting to note that while white voters oppose undoing the law by a thin 47-45 margin, nonwhite voters in the state support rejection by a 55-35 margin, creating the overall tie.

“The fate of Question 1 is going to be decided by which side does a better job of mobilizing their supporters to get out and vote,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters in the state know where they stand on the issue and now it’s just an issue of who shows up.”

PPP surveyed 1,130 likely voters from October 16th to 19th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

October 16-19, 2009

Survey of 1,130 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604

information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Maine Poll

Q1 Question 1 for the upcoming Maine Referendum Election reads ‘Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?’

Do you intend to vote yes or no on Question 1, which would undo the law that lets same sex couples marry? If you will vote yes on Question 1, press 1. If you will vote no, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.

Yes ........................ .48%
No .......................... .48%
Not Sure................. . 5%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, moderate, or conservative? If a liberal, press 1. If a moderate, press 2. If a conservative, press 3.

Liberal ............................................................. 22%
Moderate......................................................... 44%
Conservative................................................... 33%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.

Woman ........................................................... 53%
Man................................................................. 47%

Q4 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If other, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 38%
Republican...................................................... 30%
Other............................................................... 32%

Q5 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

White .............................................................. 93%
Other............................................................... 7%

Q6 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65, press 3. If older, press 4.

18 to 29........................................................... 10%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 46%
Older than 65.................................................. 22%

[DirtyHarryY2K]

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[Conservativism]

These initiatives have been losing support at a rate of 2% per year. The younger generation is much more comfortable with the idea of gay marriage.

[Clemenza]

I'm just giving a prediction. If you look at most surveys, opposition to gay marriage drops incrementally as you go down the age brackets.

Personally, I don't think there should be ANY government marriage, nor should the tax code favor married people.

BTW: I would vote against government-sanctioned same sex marriage if I were in Maine, if that is what you are wondering.

[myknowledge]

Remember Sodom and Gomorrah's fate.

This could be America if gay marriage were to be omnipresent.

[Maelstorm]

Maine isn’t really a deep blue state. It is a deep independent state. The problem in Maine is the lack of GOP machine not the lack of potential voters. The same can be said for many of the NE states. They are far more conservative than given credit the problem is if you let the Democrats have the field then how do we expect the game to go? I believe even in Massachusetts gay marriage would be overturned if the battle were waged effectively. There has never been a majority support for gay marriage or the homosexual agenda. The only time the support increases is when we quit fighting.

[yongin]

Gay marriage has occurred in lily white states like NH, VT and IA. America is becoming less white. Minorities would stand up and say no to gay marriage like they did in AZ, CA and FL last year. The perplexing problem for the GOP would be these same anti-gay marriage minorites would never vote for a Republican.

[Maelstorm]

What you are not looking at is that people as they get older tend to become more conservative. What do you expect young dumb kids to believe with TV shows promoting homosexual characters as innocuous? I was more liberal when I was younger. Not on gay marriage though no one had told me it was wrong. They didn’t have to it is just one of those things that is instinctively apparent. However on issues like socialism I was more receptive.

[RobinOfKingston]

... (48% for,48% against,%5 undecided)

That extra 1% is the built in advantage that democrats always enjoy.

[Maelstorm]

Not on this issue.

[Doctor Don]

.....not surprizing...Maine elected Olympia Snowe!

[B Knotts]

If you look at most surveys, opposition to gay marriage drops incrementally as you go down the age brackets.

True. And you know why that is.

[OpeEdMunkey]

You beat me me to it. Only in Maine can they come up with 101%.