"TRUST US"
Posted on 10/30/2009 3:19:32 AM PDT by Son House
Though Thursday's new economic figures indicated the nation's recession is technically over, there didn't seem to be anyone singing "Happy Days Are Here Again."
Certainly not in the state's employment offices. "The crisis isn't over," said Annie Young as she filled out applications on-line at a Nebraska Workforce Development career center in Omaha. "We still have a long way to go."
At the office of the state's laborers' union, the latest economic news was greeted by Tami Tietsort with a "Yeah, right."
"I don't mean to be sarcastic, and I hope we're coming out of this," said Tietsort, a clerical worker. "People want to feel safe again. They still have no sense of security."
Indeed, economists say despite the recent economic growth, there's no telling how long it will take before that translates into job creation, low unemployment and people once again feeling secure in their jobs.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the nation's economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual pace in the third quarter.
The report ended a record streak of four straight quarters of declining economic activity and is the surest sign to date that the deepest recession since the Great Depression is over. In textbook terms, a recession is defined as at least two straight quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product, said Mark Wohar, an economist with the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Wohar said the economic growth reflected Thursday was a positive sign, though much of it was due to the one-time jolt provided by the "cash for clunkers" program and the new buyer's housing credit. Consumer spending on big-ticket manufactured goods like cars soared at an annual rate of 22.3 percent in the third quarter.
Wohar expects growth to be much less in the coming quarters as those federal programs run down. Still, he and many economists think the economic recovery will be sustained, and the country's GDP not likely to take a backwards step as it begins the climb out of this deep economic hole.
When the GDP growth will turn into actual job growth is anyone's guess, Wohar and other economists said.
Right now, the country is still shedding jobs while employers wait to see more sustained growth before committing to hiring additional workers. Employment growth also lags growth in GDP because technology and experience tend to make workers ever more efficient, allowing productivity to grow without an increase in jobs.
Nationally, the unemployment rate is expected to climb from its current 9.8 percent to more than 10 percent before hiring rebounds. The unemployment rates in Omaha and Nebraska are among the lowest in the country, though joblessness is well above what it was a year ago.
The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, 3.4 million of them since President Barack Obama took office in January.
The latest figures show employment in Omaha has essentially been flat for several months, neither growing nor declining.
Count President Obama among those wanting to see more progress on the job front before making too much of a growing GDP.
"While this report today represents real progress, the benchmark I use to measure the strength of our economy is . . . whether we're creating jobs, whether families are having an easier time paying their bills, whether our businesses are hiring and doing well," he said.
There have been 11 recessions since World War II. In the two most recent ones, job growth lagged long after the recessions were deemed over. In the most recent two (July 1990-March 1991 and March-November 2001), the unemployment rate did not fall to prerecession levels for several years.
Dana Stefanidis knows all about the lag between GDP and hiring. He's an employment specialist for Nebraska Workforce Development in Lincoln, working with prospective employers to learn of their employee needs. He said he's not seeing much movement at all on the hiring front.
Even reliable employers in fields like meat packing where turnover is usually high aren't hiring because workers are holding on to their jobs, he said.
"The numbers might state that the recession is over, but there's a difference between that and the reality of people getting employment," he said. "I think a lot of employers are going to stand pat and wait and see at the first of the year."
If you're looking for a bellwether of when employment will turn around locally, talk to Dan Hemphill. He's the owner and CEO of Omaha's Hemphill Staffing Solutions, a company that supplies temporary accounting, finance, human resources and other office workers.
He said many companies will turn to his company first before committing to hiring workers on a full-time basis.
The good news: he said he's seeing demands for his temps up about 50 percent since July. Hemphill also owns an employee search firm, and he's seeing activity start to ramp up there, too.
http://talkradionews.com/2009/03/pelosi-stimulus-creates-jobs-jobs-jobs-and-jobs-and-jobs/
Following a Democratic Steering and Policy Committee listening session on the economy, Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said that,
“we just had a very productive session with some leading economists who for over a year now have been giving us advice and guidance and an assessment of the state of our economy and some judgments about how we should go forward.”
She went on to state that, “it is very clear that as we implement our recovery package, we must make sure that it works. And again, confidence is a big part of that investment that we have made. And we also must make sure the public understands this is a very fiscally sound package.
The choices that were made in it were to create jobs, jobs, jobs and jobs and jobs as soon as possible and jobs over a period of time to stabilize the economy.”
Expect dear leader and his cohorts to read this wrong and ramp up their deficit spending, thus killing any real recovery.
Please O’Bummer..... Give me a pay raise so I don’t quit my job!!! You can then count it as a “Job Saved” in your stimulus statistics.
“Why aren’t Democrat supporters more angry about their elected leaders economist being wrong?”
Democrats are having a hard time admitting that it wasn’t so all bad during the Bush years, and that they were 100% wrong with all the Bush bashing.
"TRUST US"
The new Chicago Soviets simply flooded borrowed money into the economy and leveraged it to pull future sales of cars and houses into the immediate. But that didn't create new sales.
Now our borrowed money is gone and future sales are anemic. Hang on for round two.
Isn't that a little like saying a person standing with one leg in a tub of near-freezing water and the other in a tub boiling water is ‘technically’ comfortable.
I never cease to be amazed at the ability of liberals to miss the point. They are like Lake Okeechobee. It's the second largest fresh water lake located entirely in the United States. Over 700 square miles of lake. So big that you can't see across it. Pretty impressive, huh? But wait! Despite its record size it's only 14 feet deep at its deepest place. Really huge, but very shallow.
The sad part is they will use these trumped up figures to convince themselves that all is well, and thinking what they've done has helped to alleviate the problem, they will be encouraged to do more. More of the thing that's going to sink America.
The only bright spot is that those who really make this country go ‘round are the conservatives, and they know better. When the collapse comes the liberals will be helpless to cope with the problems they've caused. Conservatives, OTOH, will have a rough time too, but they have the skills and work ethic to make it through. Not only to make it through, but to take America back to its rightful place in world history.
Unless employers are retarded they are waiting to see how badly they will be raped by Pelosi, Reid and Obama for each employee they hire.
I told a Obama, black supporter who is in business that the economy grew and he said what, who is lying to us now. Pretty funny.
We’ve had two quarters of growth? Where have I been?
Liberals during the Bush Years: Yeah you may have it good but your neighbor is really struggling because of Bush! There is no hope of anything getting better!
Liberals now: Yeah you may have lost your job, and things aren’t going good for you, but your neighbor is doing better and things are starting to look good out there.
“The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, 3.4 million of them since President Barack Obama took office in January”
Actually, since the current President took the oath of office, weekly initial unemployment claims (as reported by the Department of Labor) have averaged over 500,000 or 2,000,000 people losing their jobs and filing an initial unemployment claim per month. This equates to more than 18,000,000 initial unemployment claims during the nine months Barack Obama has been in office. This statistic represents real job losses as reported by the states to the Department of Labor — i.e. one initial claim is an individual job loss. The data underreports the actual numbers of jobs lost in the economy as it doesn’t count people who retired and were not replaced or people who lost jobs and were not eligible to file for unemployment. Likely there were also job losses in the underground economy as well as people who lost jobs and chose not to file for unemployment benefits. The statistic also does not provide any insight into the number of people who experienced an involuntary reduction in working hours.
Small business has historically been the engine for job creation in the modern US economy. Unfortunately, the economic policies of the Obama administration will result in significant costs increases for small business in 2010 and beyond — higher taxes, higher health insurance costs, more regulation, higher energy costs due to cap and trade. The lack of definition around the magnitude of these costs increases creates uncertainty which only magnifies the risk of an economy where consumer demand remains depressed. Most small businesses are fighting to survive and lack the resources to expand, particularly when banks are not lending (another consequence of economic policy). Until the costs of government tax and regulatory policies are more clearly defined, it is unlikely small businesses will be willing to take on expansion projects. Without expansion there will be no growth, and without growth there will be no new jobs created.
We have nothing but lies, tricks, smoke and mirrors, sleight of hand, fraud, shell games and theft to look forward to.
********************************************
Isn't government spending counted as part of GDP? How much gov't spending does it take to get this number? Aren't we spending to the tune of a $1.4T deficit so far this year (and the year isn't over).
“ramp up their deficit spending”
This is a characteristic that is inbred in politicians and for a least the past decade its been seen from both parties. They just can’t help themselves. They are like kids in the candy store. Problem is we’ve run out of our own candy and now we are eating someone else’s, with interest.
I have seen another ugly side to this which makes you wonder how many other businesses are fleecing potential new hires.
Mr. G has been looking for p/t work and had an offer. The very small business wanted him to buy his own uniform down to specific boots, belt, and name tag. They also wanted him to use his own cell phone and minutes, pay for his background check, and I don’t remember what else on the long list. All this for just a couple days work and no promise for future calls since they weren’t looking for a new hire, just someone experienced to fill in while a guy was out of town. The initial expense would have been more than the job paid. When Mr. G turned it down, the owner was put off claiming other people were desperate for jobs and would gladly pay the expenses.
Worst since the Great Depression........and it’s over?
I’m thinking it’s another psychological deception....
These numbers were expressly concocted to impact the gubernatorial elections in VA and NJ.
The election stealers in NJ may well win this one, but it doesn’t change the truth.
Yeah, my husband just lost a job for the second time since last Nov. He took a job in July for $10 and hour, was told health benefits would kick in January. After the busy season, he was let go. Why not just be honest and tell him it was temporary? Because the selfish win and the deceptive get ahead.
Did anyone watch BOR last night? Beck pointed out to the simpleton that the “growth” figure post yesterday was really smoke and mirrors and was due to cash for clunkers. BOR showed his lefty underpinnings and started with his cognitive dissonance routine and dismissed Beck. Problem with pointing out facts to liberals. The are really children with a form of mental disease, they ignore reality and ignore facts when it doesn’t agree with their world view. BOR wanted to believe the WH line that even though the fundamentals show it’s impossible real GDP growth cannot happen.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.