[HamiltonJay]

Hoffman is still a long shot folks...

31 to 27 to 20, with 22% UNDECIDED. Just because he’s up 4 among those decided doesn’t mean he’s anywhere near a sure thing.

The only thing the Hoffman race shows is the RNC picked a weak horse to run. To read more into it than that is foolhearty. I hope he pulls it out, but I for one will not be suprised if the D wins this race. You just aren’t likely to get 60%+ to vote Conservative/Republican in NY 23, and that’s the minimal combined numbers that he and the R candidate will be needed for Hoffman to win.

McDonnell Definately has VA won, as do R’s down the ticket.

NJ, I dunno, corruption there can generate 1-2% democratic votes out of thin air in a moments notice.

I’d like to see all 3 go our way, but I am not willing to say that they will.

[Russ]

If Republicans and conservatives turn out in huge numbers we will win all three. Otherwise, we lose one or two and allow Obama to declare victory.

[TypeZoNegative]

Undecideds usually break for the challenger. Hoffman’s seen as the challenger in this race.

[garv]

A couple things. McHugh won this seat with over 60% of the vote in 2006 and 65% in 2008.

This is my father's district and Hoffman has been able to do a tremendous amount of TV and radio advertising through his own campaign and from third parties. Even the NRCC has been running generic attack ads on Owens that never mention Scozzafava, essentially providing more advertising for Hoffman.

Even better, the Kos kids have been running pro Scozzafava ads that tout her support of gay marriage, card check and Obama's stimulus plan. I may be wrong, but I not only think Hoffman wins, but it won't be as close as expected.

[Zeppelin]

You just aren’t likely to get 60%+ to vote Conservative/Republican in NY 23, and that’s the minimal combined numbers that he and the R candidate will be needed for Hoffman to win.

Check this out: Recent Election Results

1998: 80.8% Republican

2000: 81.4% Republican + Conservative

2002: Unopposed

2004: 70.7% Republican

2006: 63.1% Republican

2008: 65.3% Republican

I think the 2000 election is an important comparison...this was before John McHugh was the incumbant, and it was a scenario similar to what we have today: Republican vs. Conservative vs. Democrat. The Republican ultimately won that, but I strongly doubt people were as fired up about David Vickers as they are about Hoffman today.

Also, that was a presidntial election year in which turnout was considerably higher. The relatively low turnout for this special election may play well to our side.

Can any New Yorkers weigh in on this? I'm very interested to hear what you folks have to say about it.