[Zeppelin]

You just aren’t likely to get 60%+ to vote Conservative/Republican in NY 23, and that’s the minimal combined numbers that he and the R candidate will be needed for Hoffman to win.

Check this out: Recent Election Results

1998: 80.8% Republican

2000: 81.4% Republican + Conservative

2002: Unopposed

2004: 70.7% Republican

2006: 63.1% Republican

2008: 65.3% Republican

I think the 2000 election is an important comparison...this was before John McHugh was the incumbant, and it was a scenario similar to what we have today: Republican vs. Conservative vs. Democrat. The Republican ultimately won that, but I strongly doubt people were as fired up about David Vickers as they are about Hoffman today.

Also, that was a presidntial election year in which turnout was considerably higher. The relatively low turnout for this special election may play well to our side.

Can any New Yorkers weigh in on this? I'm very interested to hear what you folks have to say about it.

[HamiltonJay]

Notice that trend? Its overall DOWNWARD. We’ll see what happens. I hope he pulls it out, but with 22% undecided, thinking a 4 point lead is safe is wishful thinking in my book.