Posted on 10/14/2009 8:32:04 PM PDT by TaraP
Natural fluctuations in the sun's atmosphere could cause it to fire a giant plasma ball at Earth, shutting down the planet's electric grids and leading to widespread social collapse, according to a report from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS).
Funded by NASA, the report draws attention to naturally occurring events known as coronal mass ejections (CME), in which a ball of plasma -- the charged, high-energy particles that comprise stars -- is fired from the sun. If such a ball strikes the Earth, it could produce rapid changes in the planet's magnetic field, leading to a surge of direct current in the long-range power lines that carry electricity through modern power grids.
Modern power grids are designed to carry electricity at extremely high voltage, making them especially susceptible to this kind of magnetic disruption. What they are not designed to do, however, is carry direct current. Transformers are particularly vulnerable, and sudden influx of direct current could cause the wiring inside the devices to melt. The NAS report estimates that within 90 seconds of a plasma ball hitting the Earth's magnetic field, power would be knocked out to 130 million people in the United States alone. The same effect is likely throughout the world.
A really large storm could be a planetary disaster," said power industry analyst John Kappenman.
In the First World, where everything from transportation to food and water distribution depends on electricity, this could create a humanitarian catastrophe.
"It's just the opposite of how we usually think of natural disasters," Kappenman said. "Usually the less developed regions of the world are most vulnerable, not the highly sophisticated technological regions."
According to the report, potable water would be one of the first losses in the event of such a disaster. Because water pumping relies on electricity, people would have access to tap water only for about half a day, until the amount already in the system ran out. High-rises, which rely on water being pumped to upper floors, would lose water immediately.
All electric-powered transport would stop at once, and automobiles could only run until they ran out of gas, since the pumps at gas stations also rely on electricity. This would quickly cause the shelves at stores to run bare, since the modern "just-in-time" delivery method relies on restocking shelves as they run out, with minimal storage inside shops themselves.
Backup generators at places like hospitals could only run until they ran out of fuel. According to the report, this translates into 72 hours of minimal care for only the most vulnerable patients. The absence of refrigeration would cause food and many prescription drugs to quickly spoil.
The NAS report notes that a technological meltdown on this scale might be impossible to undo. Pumping natural gas or oil requires electricity, and modern transport networks are required to keep coal plants supplied. Nuclear power plants automatically shut down if the power grid fails, and cannot be turned back on until the grid is back to normal. Very few spare transformers exist, meaning that new ones would need to be manufactured to replace most of the burned-out ones. Again, the lack of industrial infrastructure would make this a major challenge.
"We're moving closer and closer to the edge of a possible disaster," said Daniel Baker, chair of the committee that produced the report.
Although the scenario may sound fantastic and unlikely, scientists warn that there have been precedents. In 1859, a CME known as the Carrington event produced auroras as far south as the equator and caused severe disruptions to the world's telegraph systems. In 1989, a direct current overload in the power grid cut off electricity to 6 million people in Quebec province, Canada. And in 2006, a fluctuation in a small part of Germany's power grid caused a cascading power failure through the wider European grid.
I agree with your comments. I spent about 12 years on a 120 acre farm in the middle of no-where Missouri as a kid.
I could survive in that environment if I had to.
You are right that people are complacent. I know I am more than I should be.
Why has the discoveries of science always awed mankind? Especially when it talks of things that overwhelm our wee powers?
I guess the answer would be similar to why do people like to get frights at Halloween?
Hunger for the transcendent in the absence of a God faith, maybe....
Yes - about 7 minutes. But - I wish it could be like that Twilight Zone episode where the Sun goes and the guy (Merideth Burgess??) figures it out while it is still night in Manhatten. He has the rest of the night to set things right - and finally gets the gumption to ask the girl out on a date and they spend the evening together before the dawn brings them around to the exploding Sun.
Alas - like most catastrophic things - you won’t have time to prepare and it will be in an instant. So, remember to give your loved ones an extra hug and a kiss each time.
Catastrophic!
Donate all of your money to the Dimwit party now or the big balls will get you!
Apparently the plasma travels far slower than light, so we’d have many hours of warning. Shutting down the grid for a number of hours, even days, would be very inconvenient (and a bit expensive - think about lost food, etc.), but you’d be able to start it up again and fix the damage. But we’d still need spare parts, a coherent plan and spare food and water available.
EMP would be a real killer - no warning, and a far more harmful pulse of energy. Much of the planning would protect against both events, and not be too expensive (at least not compared to bailing out corrupt investment bankers).
Possibly enough to crash this extremely complex machine we've created for our comfort and convenience. I just hope the damned thing never happens, but hope ain't a plan.
Could be. There is a fascination with it though, no doubt about it.
I don’t see this report to be way way out. I just question the wisdom of putting it out there for people to ruminate over.
In an age when people go postal for little or no reason, it doesn’t seem like it would be all that hard for folks to realize it’s just not a good idea to push some people’s buttons like this.
I had a friend back in the 1980s, that heard that the planets were going to line up in the early 1990s, and they were sure the world was coming to an end. He obsessed over this for a decade. He really was afraid of this event. I think it sent him over the edge to the point where he wouldn’t make plans and move on with his life. It was a strange thing to be sure.
Clearly we have polluted the sun. SAVE THE SUN!!!!!!!!
Nice thing about FR is you can always scroll past the things that tempt you to put your tinfoil hat on.
Well where's the fun in that?
LOL, true. I don’t mind reading this stuff myself, but I do realize there are people out there who shouldn’t be reading some of it. You take care.
What if we discovered that dumping a sufficiently sized object into the sun could provoke such a flare, and in a somewhat controllable way?
Now we would be speculating about sun wars.
Jesus Christ is the answer, but first people have to grasp the question. Or like the old Baptist preacher said, you have to get them lost before you can get them saved. Unless you know you’re wounded or broken you have no desire to be healed or mended. Stuff like this could provoke evil or good. I personally wouldn’t go around blaring such stories to people myself, but if God is omnipotent then it’s trivial for him to work this too to his ends.
I love a good science thread. Thanks!
Excellent synopsis. But you forgot to mention that the fireball is ALWAYS going to hit us 25 or 30 years in the future and an endless stream of research grants is required to further study the problem. Each research project will end with the conclusion that the problem is STILL 25 to 30 years away and another research project is urgently needed to further study the problem.
add on
periodontal fungus
I disagree. Usually we get about 2 days warning that a CME is on the way. We should be able to stockpile food and fuel and shut down the electrical grid for the day that it hits. Everything would have to be off and it should survive as long as it is not connected to ground.
This should be no big deal. I am not an EE, but I do have a masters in physics and I also stayed at a Holiday inn last night.
Eh, it happens.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.