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Revised Reuters report: US recession over, unemployment seen at 10 pct
reuters ^ | Mon Oct 12, 2009 6:59pm EDT | Lucia Mutikani

Posted on 10/12/2009 4:28:04 PM PDT by egannacht

..."The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said...the private-sector group, which does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product, often takes months to make determinations...

(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: greenshoots; recessionisnotover
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1 posted on 10/12/2009 4:28:05 PM PDT by egannacht
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To: egannacht
Between multiple bong hits"The great recession is over," NABE President-Elect Lynn Reaser said
2 posted on 10/12/2009 4:30:53 PM PDT by packrat35 (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money.- M Thatcher)
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To: egannacht

OK, I will play, I define the end as 4 consecutive quarters of up GDP, I can take years to render my verdict.

Al Rooters is really showing what it’s made of, but still ... How dumb do they think we are.


3 posted on 10/12/2009 4:31:39 PM PDT by Tarpon (Oba-Mao is a reader, not a leader ...)
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To: egannacht
So if they take "months" to decide it is over, then the "recession" has been over for months, right? So all that STIMULUS is unneeded now, RIGHT? So Hussein will now RESCIND the UNNEEDED stimulus, RIGHT?
4 posted on 10/12/2009 4:32:11 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: packrat35


"You're not sick; you're fashionably bald as a child."
5 posted on 10/12/2009 4:33:07 PM PDT by egannacht (Vote YES for statism: Why burden yourself with civic duty when Idol and Oprah are on?)
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To: egannacht

> “The vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.”<

Ok, sweetheart..now tell us where the rest of the weed is located.


6 posted on 10/12/2009 4:33:43 PM PDT by max americana (i)
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To: egannacht

“The recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s. It was triggered by the U.S. housing market’s collapse and the ensuing global credit crisis.”

Uh, oh...does the Times know about this warped opinion?

It was Bush’s fault, wasn’t it?

Oh, no...he said this;

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/09/bush-called-for-reform-of-fannie-mae.html

The White House released this list of attempts by President Bush to reform Freddie Mae and Freddie Mac since he took office in 2001.
Unfortunately, Congress did not act on the president’s warnings:

** 2001

April: The Administration’s FY02 budget declares that the size of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is “a potential problem,” because “financial trouble of a large GSE could cause strong repercussions in financial markets, affecting Federally insured entities and economic activity.”

** 2002

May: The President calls for the disclosure and corporate governance principles contained in his 10-point plan for corporate responsibility to apply to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (OMB Prompt Letter to OFHEO, 5/29/02)

** 2003

January: Freddie Mac announces it has to restate financial results for the previous three years.

February: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) releases a report explaining that “although investors perceive an implicit Federal guarantee of [GSE] obligations,” “the government has provided no explicit legal backing for them.” As a consequence, unexpected problems at a GSE could immediately spread into financial sectors beyond the housing market. (”Systemic Risk: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Role of OFHEO,” OFHEO Report, 2/4/03)

September: Fannie Mae discloses SEC investigation and acknowledges OFHEO’s review found earnings manipulations.

September: Treasury Secretary John Snow testifies before the House Financial Services Committee to recommend that Congress enact “legislation to create a new Federal agency to regulate and supervise the financial activities of our housing-related government sponsored enterprises” and set prudent and appropriate minimum capital adequacy requirements.

October: Fannie Mae discloses $1.2 billion accounting error.

November: Council of the Economic Advisers (CEA) Chairman Greg Mankiw explains that any “legislation to reform GSE regulation should empower the new regulator with sufficient strength and credibility to reduce systemic risk.” To reduce the potential for systemic instability, the regulator would have “broad authority to set both risk-based and minimum capital standards” and “receivership powers necessary to wind down the affairs of a troubled GSE.” (N. Gregory Mankiw, Remarks At The Conference Of State Bank Supervisors State Banking Summit And Leadership, 11/6/03)

** 2004

February: The President’s FY05 Budget again highlights the risk posed by the explosive growth of the GSEs and their low levels of required capital, and called for creation of a new, world-class regulator: “The Administration has determined that the safety and soundness regulators of the housing GSEs lack sufficient power and stature to meet their responsibilities, and therefore…should be replaced with a new strengthened regulator.” (2005 Budget Analytic Perspectives, pg. 83)

February: CEA Chairman Mankiw cautions Congress to “not take [the financial market’s] strength for granted.” Again, the call from the Administration was to reduce this risk by “ensuring that the housing GSEs are overseen by an effective regulator.” (N. Gregory Mankiw, Op-Ed, “Keeping Fannie And Freddie’s House In Order,” Financial Times, 2/24/04)

June: Deputy Secretary of Treasury Samuel Bodman spotlights the risk posed by the GSEs and called for reform, saying “We do not have a world-class system of supervision of the housing government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), even though the importance of the housing financial system that the GSEs serve demands the best in supervision to ensure the long-term vitality of that system. Therefore, the Administration has called for a new, first class, regulatory supervisor for the three housing GSEs: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banking System.” (Samuel Bodman, House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Testimony, 6/16/04)

** 2005

April: Treasury Secretary John Snow repeats his call for GSE reform, saying “Events that have transpired since I testified before this Committee in 2003 reinforce concerns over the systemic risks posed by the GSEs and further highlight the need for real GSE reform to ensure that our housing finance system remains a strong and vibrant source of funding for expanding homeownership opportunities in America… Half-measures will only exacerbate the risks to our financial system.” (Secretary John W. Snow, “Testimony Before The U.S. House Financial Services Committee,” 4/13/05)

** 2007

July: Two Bear Stearns hedge funds invested in mortgage securities collapse.

August: President Bush emphatically calls on Congress to pass a reform package for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying “first things first when it comes to those two institutions. Congress needs to get them reformed, get them streamlined, get them focused, and then I will consider other options.” (President George W. Bush, Press Conference, The White House, 8/9/07)

September: RealtyTrac announces foreclosure filings up 243,000 in August – up 115 percent from the year before.

September: Single-family existing home sales decreases 7.5 percent from the previous month – the lowest level in nine years. Median sale price of existing homes fell six percent from the year before.

December: President Bush again warns Congress of the need to pass legislation reforming GSEs, saying “These institutions provide liquidity in the mortgage market that benefits millions of homeowners, and it is vital they operate safely and operate soundly. So I’ve called on Congress to pass legislation that strengthens independent regulation of the GSEs – and ensures they focus on their important housing mission. The GSE reform bill passed by the House earlier this year is a good start. But the Senate has not acted. And the United States Senate needs to pass this legislation soon.” (President George W. Bush, Discusses Housing, The White House, 12/6/07)

** 2008

January: Bank of America announces it will buy Countrywide.

January: Citigroup announces mortgage portfolio lost $18.1 billion in value.

February: Assistant Secretary David Nason reiterates the urgency of reforms, says “A new regulatory structure for the housing GSEs is essential if these entities are to continue to perform their public mission successfully.” (David Nason, Testimony On Reforming GSE Regulation, Senate Committee On Banking, Housing And Urban Affairs, 2/7/08)

March: Bear Stearns announces it will sell itself to JPMorgan Chase.

March: President Bush calls on Congress to take action and “move forward with reforms on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They need to continue to modernize the FHA, as well as allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to homeowners to refinance their mortgages.” (President George W. Bush, Remarks To The Economic Club Of New York, New York, NY, 3/14/08)

April: President Bush urges Congress to pass the much needed legislation and “modernize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. [There are] constructive things Congress can do that will encourage the housing market to correct quickly by … helping people stay in their homes.” (President George W. Bush, Meeting With Cabinet, the White House, 4/14/08)

May: President Bush issues several pleas to Congress to pass legislation reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before the situation deteriorates further.

“Americans are concerned about making their mortgage payments and keeping their homes. Yet Congress has failed to pass legislation I have repeatedly requested to modernize the Federal Housing Administration that will help more families stay in their homes, reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they focus on their housing mission, and allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to refinance sub-prime loans.” (President George W. Bush, Radio Address, 5/3/08)

“[T]he government ought to be helping creditworthy people stay in their homes. And one way we can do that – and Congress is making progress on this – is the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That reform will come with a strong, independent regulator.” (President George W. Bush, Meeting With The Secretary Of The Treasury, the White House, 5/19/08)

“Congress needs to pass legislation to modernize the Federal Housing Administration, reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure they focus on their housing mission, and allow State housing agencies to issue tax-free bonds to refinance subprime loans.” (President George W. Bush, Radio Address, 5/31/08)

June: As foreclosure rates continued to rise in the first quarter, the President once again asks Congress to take the necessary measures to address this challenge, saying “we need to pass legislation to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” (President George W. Bush, Remarks At Swearing In Ceremony For Secretary Of Housing And Urban Development, Washington, D.C., 6/6/08)

July: Congress heeds the President’s call for action and passes reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as it becomes clear that the institutions are failing.

In 2005— Senator John McCain partnered with three other Senate Republicans to reform the government’s involvement in lending.
Democrats blocked this reform, too.

More... Not only did democrats not act on these warnings but Barack Obama put one of the major Sub-Prime Slime players on his campaign as finance chairperson.


7 posted on 10/12/2009 4:34:10 PM PDT by jessduntno (Tell Obama to STFU - Stop The Federal Usurpation.)
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To: Tarpon

About NABE®
NABE® is an association of professionals who have an interest in business economics and who want to use the latest economic data and trends to enhance their ability to make sound business decisions. There are approximately 2,500 members representing more than 1,500 businesses and other organizations from around the world. Since its founding in 1959, NABE® has continued to attract the attention of the most influential and prestigious economic leaders in business. Past Presidents have included several former Federal Reserve Governors, the former Chairman of the Board of Governors for the Federal Reserve System, Alan Greenspan, and other senior business leaders.

NABE’s mission is to provide leadership in the use and understanding of economics.


8 posted on 10/12/2009 4:35:30 PM PDT by egannacht (Vote YES for statism: Why burden yourself with civic duty when Idol and Oprah are on?)
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To: egannacht

“The recession is over.”

And the sky is yellow and the sun is blue.


9 posted on 10/12/2009 4:35:33 PM PDT by Canedawg (FUBO)
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To: jessduntno

Even McLame knew there was a problem;

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/17/mccains-attempt-to-fix-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-in-2005/


10 posted on 10/12/2009 4:35:47 PM PDT by jessduntno (Tell Obama to STFU - Stop The Federal Usurpation.)
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To: Recovering_Democrat
So Hussein will now RESCIND the UNNEEDED stimulus, RIGHT?

And refund it to the taxpayers, I'm sure... /s

11 posted on 10/12/2009 4:37:01 PM PDT by paulycy (Screw the RACErs)
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To: egannacht
These people were desperate to declare a recession while Bush was still in office, so much so that the start was "officially" declared as of Dec '07 although the generally accepted definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This didn't happen until Q4 2008 and Q1 2009. So an exception was made (only the 2nd in 60 years, the other being when Bush Sr. was in office) in order to lay it on Bush.

Now these same "experts" are declaring the recession "over" without a SINGLE quarter of positve growth and rising unemployment? Please.

Anyone really believe it would be declared over -with absolutly nothing different other than Bush still being in office?

12 posted on 10/12/2009 4:37:38 PM PDT by wny
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To: egannacht

That unemployment rate is fairly normal in Europe. Might even be considered low.


13 posted on 10/12/2009 4:37:57 PM PDT by Let's Roll (Stop paying ACORN to destroy America! Cut off their government funding!)
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To: egannacht
Here's the contact page to ask these fine experts how they arrived at their conclusions
14 posted on 10/12/2009 4:38:55 PM PDT by egannacht (Vote YES for statism: Why burden yourself with civic duty when Idol and Oprah are on?)
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To: egannacht

They’ll be predicting “phase 2” of the recession several months later and a couple more months after it’s begun.


15 posted on 10/12/2009 4:39:18 PM PDT by dr_who
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To: egannacht
Sort of like the CBO is non-partisan ... Well at least they were until the President got their head straight. Do you know how far off CBO projections have been? About the same as the AGW hoax computer models.

Trust no one.

And they don't say why the old 2 consecutive up quarters doesn't work anymore.

My eyeballs say there are plenty more businesses in our area folding than there are starting up.

16 posted on 10/12/2009 4:40:01 PM PDT by Tarpon (Oba-Mao is a reader, not a leader ...)
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To: wny

The article points out that NABE doesn’t accept the standard method of calculating recessions and recoveries. It just forgot to mention that it’s a recession with conservatives and a recovery with socialists.


17 posted on 10/12/2009 4:40:51 PM PDT by egannacht (Vote YES for statism: Why burden yourself with civic duty when Idol and Oprah are on?)
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To: egannacht; All
"Revised Reuters report: US recession over..."


18 posted on 10/12/2009 4:41:02 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: egannacht

Nothing to see here, move along.

19 posted on 10/12/2009 4:41:05 PM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bail out)
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To: egannacht

There has been no GDP growth. It’s all still negative. This article is ridiculous.


20 posted on 10/12/2009 4:45:00 PM PDT by allmost
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