"Democrats" could face severe losses in 2010 governors' races

My own research ^ | 9/10/09 | Dangus

[dangus]

DEMOCRAT INCUMBENT

Arkansas (Beebe): Safe D

Colorado (Ritter): Leans R

Illinois (Quinn): Leans R ***

Iowa (Culver): Leans R

Maryland (O'Malley): Likely D

Massachusetts (Patrick): Leans R

New York (Patterson): Tossup ***

Ohio (Strickland): Tossup

DEMOCRAT-HELD OPEN SEAT

Kansas: Likely R

Maine: Leans D*

Michigan: Leans R

New Mexico: Likely D

Oklahoma: Likely R

Oregon: Leans D*

Pennsylvania: Tossup*

Tennessee: Leans R

Wisconsin: Tossup*

Wyoming: leans D**

REPUBLICAN-HELD OPEN SEAT

Alabama: Safe R

California: Tossup

Florida: Likely R

Hawaii: Likely D

Rhode Island: Leans D*

South Carolina: Likely R

South Dakota: Likely R

REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT

Alaska (Parnell): Likely R

Arizona (Brewer): Unknown*

Connecticut (Rell): Safe R

Idaho (Otter): Safe R

Nebraska (Heineman): Safe R

Nevada (Gibbobs): Leans R ***

Texas (Perry): Safe R

Utah (Herbert): Likely R*

I don't claim any inside knowledge or special insight into local situations; these predictions are based on any available polling data, statewide voting trends, and news accounts about potential candidates. I welcome any alternate opinions, or further information about local circumstances. All speculation weighs outcomes of various match-ups and eligibilities according to cumulative likelihoods.

* Insufficient polling data for individual candidates; supposition based on trends of popularity of parties.

** Current governor is very popular, but barred from running under current statute; A challenge to the constitutionality of the law is likely.

*** Governor's party is more likely to retain control if the incumbent is ousted in primary.

[Impy]

Addendums

I forgot Vermont: Tossup if Brian Dubie Runs

Jim Doyle isn’t running in Wisconsin I forgot and that may actually be good for the rats. But I’ll call it Lean R actually.

The New Mexico GOP might have a decent candidate in a lady DA.

And in Iowa if the Ex-Gop Governor runs Culver will probably lose.

[Impy]

I forgot Minnesota too!

Uh tossup.

[GOPsterinMA]

You should get paid!

Steve Pierce and Patrick Guerrero - 2 names from the past. Wow!

Weld/Cellucci/Swifty/Mitt suck. Weld is a leftist, for sure. He also has his hands in the Whitey Bulger fiasco - he could have saved Brian Halloran IIRC.

Silver would have been MUCH better than any/all of them. Ed King; he was a good man.