2010 Preview: The Hottest Races in the Senate for Democrats (Reid, Dodd, Boxer)

Election Day 2010 is still more than a year away—423 days to be exact. But it’s never too early to begin looking at what will be the hottest races to watch. Over the next two days, your Gagglers will look at a handful of must-watch Senate races, a list that will no doubt evolve over the next year as the battle for Congress begins.

California: Is Barbara Boxer seriously in trouble? One of the more outspoken liberal members of the Senate, Boxer seemed like a shoo-in for a fourth term, and she’s still probably pretty safe. But last month a poll found Boxer leading her potential GOP challenger, former Hewlett-Packard chief Carly Fiorina, by just four points, and some Dems panicked. To Boxer’s advantage she’s got almost $5.5 million in the bank—thanks to a little fund-raising help earlier this year from a guy named Barack Obama. And Fiorina hasn’t always been so great on the stump. Last year, she was benched as one of John McCain’s top surrogates after a series of off-script flubs.

Nevada: On paper, Harry Reid shouldn’t be in trouble. Democrats have made major political inroads in Nevada in recent years, culminating in Obama’s big win in the state in 2008. But Reid, who is seeking a fifth term, has seen his personal approval ratings back home dip to new lows amid widespread unemployment and troubling budget numbers in the state. A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll out last week found that if the election were held today, Reid would lose his seat to one of his two GOP challengers, State Reps. Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden.

IMHO, here’s where it stands:

AR- for some reason, Blanche Lincoln’s popularity has sunk, and she’s vulnerable to defeat. The most feasible opponent at this time is state Senator Gilbert Baker, who represents a Democrat-voting district in the Little Rock area.

CA- though her state is moonbat territory, Barbara Boxer is so strident, even many of her constituants have qualms about her. A recent Rasmussen poll shows that former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is running strongly against her, and Fiorina would definitely be able to compete financially. However, Fiorina’s record at HP is a source of controversy, and she doesn’t seem to be hugely conservative.

CO- a very strange race. The interim Senator, Michael Bennet, is wealthy but little known. State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff may run against Bennet in the Democratic primary. The Republican field is also little-known, though that will change if ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton runs.

CT- Chris Dodd is in dire shape, but due to his ethics failings, not anything happening in his state. The most likely Republican is ex-Congerssman Rob Simmons, though he faces a primary. If Dodd drops out of the race, Republican chances fall.

DE- Theodore Kaufman is a seat-warmer for state AG Beau Biden, who’s on active duty. If GOP Congerssman Mike Castle runs, Republicans have a better than 50/50 chance of winning this race. If Castle doesn’t run, Republicans have no chance at all.

FL- Mel Martinez had announced his retirement, than suddenly resigned. The Republican front-running candidate is Governor Charlie Crist, who has universal name ID but is unpopular with conservatives. He further alienated conservatives by replacing Martinez with George LeMieux, a longtime aide who has been on Crist’s staff for years. Ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio was considered a long-shot in the GOP primary, but he’s drawing larger crowds. The likely Democrat is Congerssman Kendrick Meek, a liberal from North Miami.

IL- the race to succeed President Obama in the Senate has already been wild and wooly, a real roller coaster ride. Republicans have gotten a couple of breaks. Interim Senator Roland Burris had to drop out of the race after lying about his commitments to Blago. So now the ‘Rats have a contested primary, though state Treasurer Alex Giannoulias is the front-runner. Giannoulias is running as a full-fledged moonbat. The likely Republican nominee is Congressman Mark Kirk, though conservatives are lukewarm about him at best. It could go either way.

KS- Sam Brownback is honoring a term-limits pledge. Republicans got an unexpected break when Kathleen Selebius became HHS Secretary, leaving the ‘Rats without a strong candidate. Republican Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt are both conservatives, but Tiahrt is the more committed and consistant conservative.

KY- this open seat has live primaries in both parties. With the ‘Rats, it’s state AG Jack Conway vs. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, who both dislike each other and the tension is spilling into the priamry. Republicans have rallied around SOS Trey Grayson, but libertarian Republican Rand Paul, an eye surgeon whose father ran for President last year, is making a race of it. Anything can happen, though Republicans seem to be slightly favored at this point.

LA- David Vitter got himself into trouble, Bill Clinton style, and compounded it with a hiarory of self-righteousness. But he feels entitled to another term and so is running again. He may face a tough primary challenge, and Democrats got their strongest candidate in Congressman Charles Melancon. Louisians is trending heavily Republican, but Vitter put himself in danger needlessly.

MO- It’s a battle of dynasties as much as parties. The Democrat, SOS Robin Carnahan, is the daughter of an ex-Governor and former U.S. Senator, and the sister of a Congressman. The Republican, Congressman Roy Blunt, is the father of a former Governor and the son of a former state House Minority Leader. Blunt is not a great choice, but he’s been showing good sense lately and the political environment is tilting in his direction. A toss-up.

NV- Harry Reid should have been a shoo-in. He won easily in 2004. His massive fundraising scared off all first-tier competition, helped by a politically motivated indictment of the Lt. Gov. by the state AG, a close political ally. but voters are becoming very agitated and disgusted by his shilling for Obama, his pettiness, and his arrogance. The Republican field is still sorting itself out, but with Reid’s approval rating below 40%, they have reason to be hopeful.

NH- another strange race. After some odd manuvers after being offered the Secretary of Commerce post by Obama, Judd Gregg is retiring. Democrat Congressman Paul Hodes is running. The Republican nominee is ex-state AG Kelly Ayotte, who’s well-regarded in the legal community but whose views are something of a mystery. She may face a primary challenge, but conservatives are more perplexed by her than opposed to her. Polls show the race to be a dead heat.

NY- the special election to succeed Hitlery has featured some surprises. Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand, a moderate liberal, unexpectedly got appointed. She faced potential primary challenges from the Moonbat wing of the party. But those threats have faded, due to pressure by Obama and a number of flip-flops by Gillibrand herself. Only George Pataki could unseat her, and he seems to be leaning against running.

NC- Richard Burr is not overwhelmingly popular, but he’s avoiding the mistakes that Libby Dole made. More important, the ‘Rats have had one recruiting failure after another. The front-running ‘Rat now seems to be SOS Elaine Marshall, but her last run for the Senate was a huge flop.

ND- will John Hoeven run against Byron Dorgan? If he does, the GOP could very well win this. If he doesn’t, it’s a non-starter.

OH- George Voinovich’s retirement has created two primaries. Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who was once a member of Handgun Control, Inc., has Democrat establishment support, but faces a primary challenge from SOS Jennifer Bruner, an ACRON shill. Sounds like choosing between arsenic and strychnine. The GOP establishment choice is ex-Congressman Rob Portman, but his service in the Bush Administration is a liability. Car dealer Tom Ganley is runnign as the anti-establishment Republican and may be willing to spend from his personal funds.

PA- here’s another improbable race, some amusing developments. Arlen Specter voted for Obama’s stimulous package, than joined the ‘Rats when challenged in the GOP primary by Patrick Toomey, who nearly primaried him in 2004. How did Specter’s new party reward his bringing their majority to 60? They stripped him of his seniority. He also faces a strong primary challenge from Congressman Joe Sestak. Toomey doesn’t fit the profile of a strong candidate, but he’s showing surprising strength and making the right moves, with one very notable exception. Oh, well, we all make mistakes.

TX- here’s a complicated special election, with a strong element of irony. Kay Baily Hutchinson will resign from the U.S. Senate to run against Governor Rick Perry in the Republican primary. And it’s Perry who will appoint her replacement. Perry is trailing Hutchinson in the polls, partly because the conservative base is lukewarm to both candidates. If Perry were to appoint Michael Williams to the Senate, conservatives would rally around him with ferver. However, most think he’ll appoint Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who can fund his campaign from his $200 million personal fortune. Democrats have two credible candidates in the field, Houston Mayor Bill White and ex-state Controller John Sharp. All bets are off until Hutchinson resigns.

UT- Robert Bennett has grown in office, according to supporters of Big Government and Open Borders. Bennett wants another term, but faces a primary challenge from state AG Mark Shurtelf, who’s an open borders supporter but more conservative than Bennett on everything else. Looking at the race is Congresman Jason Chaffetz, who’s a strong conservative on the whole range of issues, including border security. Chaffetz will make a decision before too long. Democrats aren’t going to seriously contest this race.

WA- Patty Murray is so dense, the liberal Washington Monthly named her one of the Dumbest Members of Congress, a list Democrats don’t often make. Congressman Dave Reichert, the former Sheriff, would be a strong candidate, but he’s made no moves towards running (hint to WA state Freepers).

very nice analysis Clintonfatigued and it points out the fact that even if the GOP picks up the 8 seats they are targeting (assuming we don’t lose any), we could just be adding more friends for Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe to have tea with.

IL - Kirk can win this seat, but let’s face it,he’s a RINO. Arlen Spector Jr. Paging Mr. Ditka?

CO - Spot on this one it the battle of the unknowns. This state has trended blue, but low midterm turnout due to liberal “unexcitement” could help the GOP win here.

CT - Is Bob Simmons a RINO? I don’t know that much about him, except that he was apart of a moderate GOP group in the house with Chris Shays. I wouldn’t worry about Dodd stepping out of this race...his ego is the size of Texas.

HI - Linda Lingle would pose a challenge to the 86 year old Dinosaur. I’ve heard her speak and got the impression she was another Snowe/Collins and pro-choice according to the ontheissues website.

NV - Harry Reid is toast. So at least let’s make sure a conservative is in this race.

NY (Gillabrand Seat) - The GOP is doing everything they can to get Pataki to run. Great, Lincoln Chafee Jr. can play with Arlen Spector Jr. (Mark Kirk).

ND - The Governor apparently can knock Dorgan off in this race if he decides to run.

PA - Whether its Spector of Sestak, I see no way for Toomey to solve the margin gaps in Phili/Pitt (Bucks, Delaware, Chester, and Montgomery County), although I see him doing better than McCain in Lehigh/Berks and holding the gains made in western PA. At least I see it down to single digits (8-9%).

DE - This seat has Beau Biden’s name all over it. The reason the GOP doesn’t want Castle to run is because if Castle loses the Senate race, chances are the GOP will lose the House seat as well. Three just isn’t decent GOP name recognition in the state.

Now...as for the seats we have to defend....

FL - Kendrick Meek? Isn’t he the guy in the Fanny/Freddie commercials saying “there’s nothing wrong to warrant suspicion”? Crist should still win, but how much conservative anger will sit out if Rubio fails to win the primary, and what does that do to House seats?

MO - Massive amounts of cash will be poured into FL and MO. Carnahan ran incredibly well in central MO and Boone county. If she maintains that strength, it will be hard for Blount or Steelman to overtake her. This is the state to watch in terms of the conservative GOP momentum. We win here, it’s a good sign for the rest of the elections.

OH - Brunner/ACORN vrs Portman? I don’t see Brunner lucking out the way Sherrod Brown did when many conservatives were PO’d at Mike DeWine. A tough hold, but come on. Just the fact that Brunner is tied to ACORN should send conservatives out in droves to stop her from joining the Senate.

IA - Is Chuck Grassley in trouble?

NH - Advantage to the Dems, this is New England.

LA - Vitter should be okay despite the scandal. Anyone else hear about the adult film actress wanting to challenge Vitter in the GOP? If this happens, look for Bill Clinton to enter the Senate race in NY.

KY - This isn’t looking all that great at the moment.

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